Winter Forecast Now Online

[Paul]

The official Netweather winter forecast is now online - this forecast has been written by our long range forecaster Stewart Rampling and is an in depth and technical look ahead to the winter of 2009/10. Normally the seasonal forecasts written by Stewart are only available to commercial clients of Netweather but this Winter we are allowing free access to it.

The forecast can be found here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=winter-forecast;sess=

Please feel free to discuss the forecast and ask any questions you may have about it in this thread. Over the coming days we'll also be putting a summarised version online for people to download/view as well as a video on Netweather TV in which Stewart will go into a little more detail about the forecast and further explain it.

Paul

[SMU]

The official Netweather winter forecast is now online - this forecast has been written by our long range forecaster Stewart Rampling and is an in depth and technical look ahead to the winter of 2009/10. Normally the seasonal forecasts written by Stewart are only available to commercial clients of Netweather but this Winter we are allowing free access to it.

The forecast can be found here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=winter-forecast;sess=

Please feel free to discuss the forecast and ask any questions you may have about it in this thread. Over the coming days we'll also be putting a summarised version online for people to download/view as well as a video on Netweather TV in which Stewart will go into a little more detail about the forecast and further explain it.

Paul

Good luck with the forecast Stewart-

I hope the 78/79 best fit comes in the winner- ahead of 74-

Steve

[Stuart]

Good luck Stewart with this forecast

[Nick L]

Would take that certainly! Will have a good read of it now, hopefully some of it might sink in...

[Cal]

Good luck with the forecast Stewart, extremly well documented.

[Methuselah]

A very good, well-written and informative forecast, Stewart. Thanks for all the effort. And, like Steve, I don't want the 1974-75 analogue to come-off!

[mt-leinster-snow-drifts]

Dare I say it , the start of a NEW "christmas pudding"!!!!!!!!!!!

More than likely not but a nice tought.

[Mark Bayley]

Excellent forecast So an average winter overall, perhaps slightly below, with periods of cold and mild. Nice to see January forecast to be the coldest of the winter months January has always been the worst of the three, or it has over recent years. Hopefully some decent snow will be chucked in as well. This forecast does seem to fit in with BFTP and Rogers thoughts (December unsettled around average, January coldest month, both predict it could be quite cold, and then a both predict a possible warm up in February) Its good to see similarities !!

Good luck with the forecast

Edited November 24, 2009 by mark bayley

[johnholmes]

Its interesting that Stewart in his 'historical analogues' has just one winter where all 3 indicators occur

that is 1965-66

that gave CET figures for the 3 winter months of 4.7C; 2.9C; and 5.7C

one of the the years that occurs twice in the data he shows was 1979-80

it returned 5.8C; 2.3C and 5.7C

the second most recent is 2002-3

geave 5.7C; 4.5C and 3.9C

Edited November 24, 2009 by johnholmes

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Thanks for that, I may not understand it all, but I certainly appreciate the effort.

I'll have to take the morning off to try and read it fully !!

[Methuselah]

Its interesting that Stewart in his 'historical analogues' has just one winter where all 3 indicators occur

that is 1965-66

that gave CET figures for the 3 winter months of 4.7C; 2.9C; and 5.7C

one of the the years that occurs twice in the data he shows was 1979-80

it returned 5.8C; 2.3C and 5.7C

the second most recent is 2002-3

geave 5.7C; 4.5C and 3.9C

Aye John; it's fascinating stuff (Now that I've actually taken the time to find out what it is! My bad! )...Was it '66 that threw-up a 'freeze' in either March or April??

Does England winning the World Cup count as an analogue???

[Tom Quintavalle]

As usual Stewart, a very detailed, well written piece of work and for someone like myself, who doesnt have your understanding of the more technical aspects of meteorology, you've enabled me to understand more through the addition of informative charts and diagrams. Good luck with the forecast and if its accurate I think we're in for a very interesting winter.

As JH as highlighted in his post, re. the analogue years that appear more than once in your forecast, we could be in for a colder, more snowy January, than we've seen for some time.

All the best Stewart.

Regards,

Tom.

[kippure]

Top Class forecast.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

I would largely agree with Stewart's analysis and conclusions, which will doubtless come as a great relief to him. I do have a slight doubt about the QBO, but that's just nitpicking.

[kold weather]

Very interesting Stewart, the Feb is very big call as it goes right against most El nino febs out there, though it should be noted 65-66 is indeed one of those that does see that occur.

I agree with Jan, my only fear is the jet is still too rampant at the time but if we do get decent amplification upstream then that will have to allow some real snow threats.

Also IMO watch late December time, whilst I suspect for the south it'll be rather mild and wet, I think the jet may line up quite well for Scotland to get a possible snow event, think maybe a colder version of the week coming up.

[kippure]

Very interesting Stewart, the Feb is very big call as it goes right against most El nino febs out there, though it should be noted 65-66 is indeed one of those that does see that occur.

I agree with Jan, my only fear is the jet is still too rampant at the time but if we do get decent amplification upstream then that will have to allow some real snow threats.

Also IMO watch late December time, whilst I suspect for the south it'll be rather mild and wet, I think the jet may line up quite well for Scotland to get a possible snow event, think maybe a colder version of the week coming up.

For some reason i always base decembers weather on november patterns too, just a little on the coldeer side. Like 95

[Fozfoster]

Agood read, So good luck.

[WhiteXmas]

I hate to sound like a broken record but dare I say it it's looking increasingly like my statement of last year of us entering a period of colder winters compared to recent times may turn out to be true. I will mention the fact about the Global Warming "myth" in passing as it does tend to create debates of a heated nature!

And for anyone that thinks it I am not blowing my own trumpet so to speak I am just stating the connections. Great forecast anyway Mr.Rampling highly impressive

[Polar Gael]

A grand piece of work, Stewart. Good luck with it - would be great to have a colder January again.

Would be even better if we had a repeat of 1978-79.

[Bristawl Si]

Thanks Stewart.

I remember 70s winters very well. In BTL mainly mild, wet, quite stormy....bit like the last couple of weeks.

Late 70s change to colder winter i think, esp. 78/79, but if i remember right...78/79 was a mild start and then it all changed after Xmas and after the Great Blizzard of New Years Eve, we had a number of significant snowfalls in January. Maybe, just maybe.

Although through most of the 70s one thing that stands out for me (in some of those years anyway) was systems crashing thru' the middle of Britain and the south was normally on the wrong side of these; BTL ended up with rain, whilst Midlands northwards got heavy snow at times (i don't think my memory is playing tricks).

So looks like we'll end up with a 'normal, average' winter, but not quite as mild or boring as most winters in Ian's 'christmas pudding'. Sorry, couldn't resist.

[skifreak]

I don't want the 63/64 (God forbid) analogue to come off, nor the 2002/03 one, but the 2002/03 one might not be so bad if the weather events happened in a different order this time round! IE settled high spells comes after snow, not drastic thaws!!

I think we could be in for a bit of a frustrating Scottish Ski Season with possibly more snow than average, but SW thaws when they set in being severe.

As ever from the ski perspective it's not just about the type of weather we get, it's more often or not about the order in which we get it that makes or breaks a Scottish Ski Season and there can be surprisingly little between epic seasons and woeful seasons in terms of synoptics.

A very detailed, well explained and thoroughly researched forecast. I like the overall headline message, just hope we don't get certain analogue years showing up!

[SteveB]

Sounds like it's all to play for, hope it goes the right way for us this time.

Monumental effort Stuart

[TEITS]

Certainly enjoyed reading the forecast and I hope it proves to be correct.

The month I shall be particularly interested in is January. As we all know the month of January has been very disappointing with little if any decent cold spells. So the fact that GP is suggesting this could be the coldest month is interesting.

The only thing I will say is im rather dubious of using the CFS and analogues in making a LRF. I have very little confidence in using a computer model for a LRF when they struggle to predict the next 7-10 days. As for using analogues, well I don't mean to sound like IB but our climate is very different to the 1960's/70's and this needs to be taken into account.

Still despite my disagreement with some elements of the forecast I certainly hope GP is spot on and I respect the effort he has put into the forecast.

[masheeuk]

Excellent forcast. Loads of working on show behind all the thought. Personally wouldn't want it too cold but again excellent forcast

[Solar Cycles]

Thanks for the forecast Stewart, I certainly anticipate a disturbed pattern. I doubt if we will be able to get January below average even if conditions were slightly more favourable but best of luck anyway.

Really enjoyed reading that Stewart, one of the few LRF I bother to read. I still feel that nino will be fading come late December, and this of course reflecting in a below average January and February. All the best with the forecast Stewart any how.

Edited November 24, 2009 by shuggee
Stop baiting SC