Model Output Discussion

[nick sussex]

It seems a bit like last year that in spite of northern blocking not being prevalent/strong in our region the jet reamins further south by some margin than what we became accustomed too. This is important and will win or lose the winter. I mean if the southerly track continues, any reasonable northern blocking and 'hey presto'. The potential wetness ahead over coming weeks is a concern for me.

At short range i prefer the 06z to the 00z so I'm glad its backtracking

BFTP

I agree the amount of rain forecast could cause serious problems, as for the gfs backtracking well here we see again it continued to within the T-120hrs timeframe barking up the wrong tree and then backtracks this morning!

Edited November 30, 2009 by nick sussex

[Tom Quintavalle]

Yes, as stated by the guys above, the worrying thing being the amount of rain that could accumulate on already saturated ground over the next week/10 days. If the jet stays on a more southerly trajectory, as is forecast, other areas, apart from the locations that have already had flooding, could join the casualty list.

Regards,

Tom.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Yes, as stated by the guys above, the worrying thing being the amount of rain that could accumulate on already saturated ground over the next week/10 days. If the jet stays on a more southerly trajectory, as is forecast, other areas, apart from the locations that have already had flooding, could join the casualty list.

Regards,

Tom.

The LP/s just get stuck ove r the UK with further secondary Lps getting absorbed into it. Very wet, very windy to stormy at times....and I can't see that changing for quite some time. At least the jet being south makes for 'interesting' weather rather than SW'lies from Costa Rica.

BFTP

Edited November 30, 2009 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Frosty.]

It's back to square one after the frosty night tonight with low after low and yes, more flooding misery in various parts of the uk during the next few weeks. At least the ecm 00z keeps the uk north of the polar front but just as unsettled as the gfs, we desperately need an anticyclone to give a week of fine weather but it's highly unlikely IMO and as Fred says with the upcoming energy peak.

Edited November 30, 2009 by Frosty039

[snowmadchrisuk]

It's back to square one after the frosty night tonight with low after low and yes, more flooding misery in various parts of the uk during the next few weeks. At least the ecm 00z keeps the uk north of the polar front but just as unsettled as the gfs, we desperately need an anticyclone to give a week of fine weather but it's highly unlikely IMO and as Fred says with the upcoming energy peak.

I think 2 days away from the models is just what the doctor orders. I still think the MJO might reach phase 7 it is edging ever closer towards it , If you remember it stalled in phase 3 but carried on to zoom through phases 4 and 5. I think if we come back Wednesday we will be looking at totally different charts. 2 days to get some of that xmas shopping done then Remember to get up early in the morning also guys , it is the official first day of winter and everything is going to be white , apart from the east coast itself , nearly everywhere should get down to at least -1 .

Chris

[karyo]

I think 2 days away from the models is just what the doctor orders. I still think the MJO might reach phase 7 it is edging ever closer towards it , If you remember it stalled in phase 3 but carried on to zoom through phases 4 and 5. I think if we come back Wednesday we will be looking at totally different charts. 2 days to get some of that xmas shopping done then Remember to get up early in the morning also guys , it is the official first day of winter and everything is going to be white , apart from the east coast itself , nearly everywhere should get down to at least -1 .

Chris

Indeed Chris, tomorrow's frost is the only thing I am looking forward to, weatherwise! I love frosty mornings and so far I've only had one this season, with other net weather members still waiting.

I also think the MJO will reach Phase 7 but as a weak event. Besides, as GP explained excellently a few days ago, the MJO on its own won't necessarilly lead to northern blocking as the GWO is well behind in Phases 4/5.

I just hope the jet stays south so that we eventually benefit from some height rises to the north, but I'm afraid this is not likely to happen very soon!

Karyo

Edited November 30, 2009 by karyo

[Shunter]

The GFS ensembles reintroduce a couple of colder runs for London in the 6z run

http://85.25.71.112/wz/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Although still predominantly wet there are signs of precipitation reducing as we head into December, so maybe just a chink of daylight appearing.

As long as the jet remains to the south and with the possiblity of the MJO entering phase 7, we always have a chance of an anti cyclone appearing at short notice, so literally a question of riding out the storm at the moment.

[sundog]

The latest outputs are noting but a disaster for the uk and ireland if they verify with all the flooding there has been. Parts of western ireland were already like a disaster zone last week with the amount of flooding. The land just cant take much more of this. Think i will buy myself a boat!

[nick sussex]

The MJO update shows it becoming slow moving and still uncertain whether this will make phase 7.

http://www.cawcr.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/RMM/phase.Last40days.html

Perhaps the models anticipated it moving into phase 7 and suggested a chance of a Scandi high but its hard to say what it will do now, given the upstream pattern we really need to see at least some height rise to the ne otherwise we could see that slow moving trough throwing up low pressure from the sw and driving milder sw'erlies in as pressure rises in se europe, the jet really needs to track nw/se to avoid this and needs the help of some pressure build to the ne.

Edited November 30, 2009 by nick sussex

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Like others I am going to make the most of an upcoming quiet cold night and dry day tomorrow. Chance to be able to get out and look at the sodden garden as well as take the opportunity to deal with my leaking window and bathroom ceiling whilst it has stopped raining for more than just a few hours!

Low pressure tracking to the south is no good whatsoever without a pressure rise above it - the result is the same, (or worse) still with yuksville south westerlies as well as the ceaseless rain. I would be truly delighted and relieved to see just a bog standard winter anticyclone atm in the current circumstances.

Otherwise roll on Spring for me at this rate - a long very wet and windy extended 'autumn' is the last sort of weather wanted on the menu.

No pattern lasts forever though, and it is a case of continuing to endure this wretched weather pattern in the meantime.

[chionomaniac]

The MJO update shows it becoming slow moving and still uncertain whether this will make phase 7.

http://www.cawcr.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/RMM/phase.Last40days.html

Hi Nick,

It does indeed look likely that the MJO will return to no mans land before heading back to phase 5.

For those who would like a link to MJO forecasts then here it is:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52qz/mjoindex/MJO_INDEX.html

The OLR forecasts are very suggestive of phase 5 which would put the MJO more in line with the GWO

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52qz/mjoindex/anom_MJO/make_recon_forecastOLRgfsop.gif

Therefore more of the same without the blocking.

[nick sussex]

Like others I am going to make the most of an upcoming quiet cold night and dry day tomorrow. Chance to be able to get out and look at the sodden garden as well as take the opportunity to deal with my leaking window and bathroom ceiling whilst it has stopped raining for more than just a few hours!

Low pressure tracking to the south is no good whatsoever without a pressure rise above it - the result is the same, (or worse) still with yuksville south westerlies as well as the ceaseless rain. I would be truly delighted and relieved to see just a bog standard winter anticyclone atm in the current circumstances.

Otherwise roll on Spring for me at this rate - a long very wet and windy extended 'autumn' is the last sort of weather wanted on the menu.

No pattern lasts forever though, and it is a case of continuing to endure this wretched weather pattern in the meantime.

Tamara you seem a bit downbeat which i suppose given the autumn so far with rain and more rain is understandable, its only being raining here for 2 days and i'm already comfort eating! At least though when this clears there should be plenty of snow for the Pyrenees. Its a bit frustrating here as I can occasionally see the snow line through the clouds and its around 600 metres and I'm at around 380 metres here!

Looking at the models i'd even settle for a warm euro high and i'm sure that would be welcome in the UK.

Edited November 30, 2009 by nick sussex

[Cal]

Hi Nick,

It does indeed look likely that the MJO will return to no mans land before heading back to phase 5.

For those who would like a link to MJO forecasts then here it is:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52qz/mjoindex/MJO_INDEX.html

The OLR forecasts are very suggestive of phase 5 which would put the MJO more in line with the GWO

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52qz/mjoindex/anom_MJO/make_recon_forecastOLRgfsop.gif

Therefore more of the same without the blocking.

Ch, how accurate are the MJO Forecasts? I seem to re-call a couple of weeks ago it was predicted to stall in phase 3 and meander about? But no, of it went and is now mid way through phase 6!!

[stewfox]

Low pressure tracking to the south is no good whatsoever without a pressure rise above it - the result is the same, (or worse) still with yuksville south westerlies as well as the ceaseless rain. I would be truly delighted and relieved to see just a bog standard winter anticyclone atm in the current circumstances.

Otherwise roll on Spring for me at this rate - a long very wet and windy extended 'autumn' is the last sort of weather wanted on the menu.

No pattern lasts forever though, and it is a case of continuing to endure this wretched weather pattern in the meantime.

With the jet staying south there is at worse 'average temps' in the next 2 weeks and enough cold air around to bring snow to higher parts of northern Britain.

Where are you seeing 12c/13c coming from ??. There has been some model downgrade but..

Now let me check …

Yes winter starts tomorrow not ends

Edited November 30, 2009 by stewfox

[chionomaniac]

Like others I am going to make the most of an upcoming quiet cold night and dry day tomorrow. Chance to be able to get out and look at the sodden garden as well as take the opportunity to deal with my leaking window and bathroom ceiling whilst it has stopped raining for more than just a few hours!

Low pressure tracking to the south is no good whatsoever without a pressure rise above it - the result is the same, (or worse) still with yuksville south westerlies as well as the ceaseless rain. I would be truly delighted and relieved to see just a bog standard winter anticyclone atm in the current circumstances.

Otherwise roll on Spring for me at this rate - a long very wet and windy extended 'autumn' is the last sort of weather wanted on the menu.

No pattern lasts forever though, and it is a case of continuing to endure this wretched weather pattern in the meantime.

I do believe that we will see the Northern blocking at some point over the winter, and when it comes it will be good to see the southerly tracking jet.

You may have to keep that bucket catching those drips in position a little while longer though!

Chin up T it's not even winter yet!

Ch, how accurate are the MJO Forecasts? I seem to re-call a couple of weeks ago it was predicted to stall in phase 3 and meander about? But no, of it went and is now mid way through phase 6!!

They are variable Cal. I have followed them all year and at some points the GEFS ensemble forecast is very reliable -but not always. As with the models at some point there is an FI. I always look for a tight cluster. The closer the cluster the better reliability - probably!

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Tamara you seem a bit downbeat which i suppose given the autumn so far with rain and more rain is understandable, its only being raining here for 2 days and i'm already comfort eating! At least though when this clears there should be plenty of snow for the Pyrenees.

Looking at the models i'd even settle for a warm euro high and i'm sure that would be welcome in the UK.

Hi nick

Yes I am rather downbeat to be honest! When you get a dreadful pattern like this and it starts to impact on you in terms of house leaks and roof wear and tear, it can be a real perspective leveller in terms of what you otherwise hope for. Not that things are anywhere near as bad down here here of course as those poor folk in Cumbria and Ireland have had to contend with of late. But nevertheless, lots of sleepless nights get to you after a while!

Of course, cold synoptics are the ultimate wish, and generally speaking they also come with lower dewpoints and relative (to the here and now!) dryness anyway. In that sense just the sort of high that brings the 'faux cold' (as some would call it) would be very welcome now bringing some crisp winter sunshine as well as a cold (DRY!) wind off the continent.

However, more on topic, and looking at the models and the background pattern in terms of the latest analysis that you and ch are discussing even that seems a way off atm let alone any proper high pressure to the north.

I do believe that we will see the Northern blocking at some point over the winter, and when it comes it will be good to see the southerly tracking jet.

Chin up !

Hi, yes of course - and I am not saying winter is over or anything. You (and others) know my own thoughts anyway in terms of the potential this upcoming season. I speak of it often enough and am usually upbeat about things anyway.

Simply was speaking within context of the undesirability of the current pattern that is all

[Methuselah]

I think we're all getting a bit 'down' just now, peeps...Although 'my' mountains are lovely and white at the mo, the sort of rubbish the models are indicating for the near future, does rather suggest that the whiteness may be only shortlived... :lol:

That said, I do see some crumbs-of-comfort in the current uncertainty...All is not lost!!! :lol:

[NorthantsSnow]

No pain, no gain. Whilst the short term pattern as progged by the GFS and ECM isn't particularly inspiring from a coldie perspective bar the widespread frost event tomorrow morning, the long term CFS charts are brimming with cold potential. (southerly jet, height rises to the north, repeated northerly/easterly blasts)

I'm not sure about others but I would happily suffer one mild winter month (in this case December) for two cold ones. Not that that is necessarily going to be the outcome, but looking at the current output it's hard to envisage any serious cold/snow threat within the next 10 days at the very least.

[Cal]

With the majority of predictions going for a -NAO & a -AO in the near future i find it hard to believe the former (-NAO) looking at the model runs .

The latter (-AO) i can well believe as shown by the models

Strange thing this weather lark :lol: .

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

With the jet staying south there is at worse 'average temps' in the next 2 weeks and enough cold air around to bring snow to higher parts of northern Britain.

Where are you seeing 12c/13c coming from ??. There has been some model downgrade but..

Now let me check …

Yes winter starts tomorrow not ends

I don't think your post actually reflects what I think at all - and haven't mentioned anything about mild temps anywhere either. Nor was I referring to any model downgrade. I don't think they have downgraded - they are just reflecting the movements of the global patterns and indicators and there are bound to be steps forward and backwards in line with those. Much as I stress myself often enough on here

I merely said that the present weather continued would make up an undesirable long autumn - nothing more nothing less. But I also said that no pattern lasts forever.

Back on topic i think.

Edited November 30, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[carinthian]

Hi nick

Yes I am rather downbeat to be honest! When you get a dreadful pattern like this and it starts to impact on you in terms of house leaks and roof wear and tear, it can be a real perspective leveller in terms of what you otherwise hope for. Not that things are anywhere near as bad down here here of course as those poor folk in Cumbria and Ireland have had to contend with of late. But nevertheless, lots of sleepless nights get to you after a while!

Of course, cold synoptics are the ultimate wish, and generally speaking they also come with lower dewpoints and relative (to the here and now!) dryness anyway. In that sense just the sort of high that brings the 'faux cold' (as some would call it) would be very welcome now bringing some crisp winter sunshine as well as a cold (DRY!) wind off the continent.

However, more on topic, and looking at the models and the background pattern in terms of the latest analysis that you and ch are discussing even that seems a way off atm let alone any proper high pressure to the north.

Hi, yes of course - and I am not saying winter is over or anything. You (and others) know my own thoughts anyway in terms of the potential this upcoming season. I speak of it often enough and am usually upbeat about things anyway.

Simply was speaking within context of the undesirability of the current pattern that is all

Hi Tamara,

Just read your post . We have been in the pattern of hair drier conditions in our part of Austria for weeks. 17C in some parts today. The only consolation is the excessive amounts of sunshine here this Autumn (20%) above normal. This patten of trough anchored out to the west of the Britich Isles and ridge over Eastern Europe is also driving me mad for different reasons. Although Britain is continuing to have a soaking, we are desperate for snowfall. That picture is the new gondola costing 10 million euro and was to be running last weekend. We need 50cm of fresh snowfall, just to start a base. Anyway , I will go and chop some more pine logs, just in case it turns cold !

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Hi Tamara,

Just read your post . We have been in the pattern of hair drier conditions in our part of Austria for weeks. 17C in some parts today. The only consolation is the excessive amounts of sunshine here this Autumn (20%) above normal. This patten of trough anchored out to the west of the Britich Isles and ridge over Eastern Europe is also driving me mad for different reasons. Although Britain is continuing to have a soaking, we are desperate for snowfall. That picture is the new gondola costing 10 million euro and was to be running last weekend. We need 50cm of fresh snowfall, just to start a base. Anyway , I will go and chop some more pine logs, just in case it turns cold !

Hi !

Austria is wonderful - I went skiing there a number of years ago and hit lucky with a late season snowfall after the slopes had been bare over xmas and January!

The model pattern with lows moving into europe should start to deliver some different conditions with snow hopefully in the coming days I would have thought

[nick sussex]

Hi Tamara,

Just read your post . We have been in the pattern of hair drier conditions in our part of Austria for weeks. 17C in some parts today. The only consolation is the excessive amounts of sunshine here this Autumn (20%) above normal. This patten of trough anchored out to the west of the Britich Isles and ridge over Eastern Europe is also driving me mad for different reasons. Although Britain is continuing to have a soaking, we are desperate for snowfall. That picture is the new gondola costing 10 million euro and was to be running last weekend. We need 50cm of fresh snowfall, just to start a base. Anyway , I will go and chop some more pine logs, just in case it turns cold !

Aren't you expecting some fresh snow during this week, the models all seem to push fronts well into europe. Here the resorts were supposed to open last Saturday but this has been put back to this Saturday, of course with this type of pattern since the weekend the Pyrenees especially the western ones often do better than further east into the Alps, i'm sure everything will be open this weekend here with huge amounts of snow forecast this week, i have everything crossed for you C that things improve over there in Austria, keep us posted on things.

[Glacier Point]

It's becoming increasingly apparent that the operationals are struggling to cope with an unusual synoptic pattern. Much more consistent and better guidance may be found from the ensemble means.

GFS Ensemble mean H5 height anomaly day 11-15:

http://raleighwx.eas...htAnomalyNH.gif

CMC Ensemble mean H5 height anomaly day 11-15:

http://raleighwx.eas...htAnomalyNH.gif

These are very consistent with the Global Wind Oscillation (which is the preferential measure rather than the MJO which only captures the tropics). The GWO is in phase 4:

http://www.esrl.noaa...gcm/gwo_40d.gif

The composites for GWO phase 4 and 5 continue to offer excellent guidance on the long wave pattern, echoed by the 00z ensemble means.

With tropical convective activity still centred in the western and central Pacific, relative angular momentum will edge slightly upwards ensuring that the GWO remains locked in phases 4-5.

As anticipated, a wet and close to average start of December which will probably only change as we see angular momentum edge upwards to enable the GWO orbit back and forth around phases 6-7-8. This looks to be around Christmas and the New Year when we should see significant support for height rises over Scandinavia. This means that the evolution we should be looking for should be for the longwave trough to become negatively tilted forcing height rises over Svalbard initially gradually extending over Scandinavia in time.

So far, so good.

Edited November 30, 2009 by Glacier Point

[Paul]

John Holmes has just updated his weekly video forecast:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=forecast-video;sess=