Do You Like The Term Modern Era ?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Job Done I'd say.

BFTP

[The watcher]

Ian will be quite happy seeing this topic unleashed...we have mentioned the term more than he would normally, all in one thread.

Are we forgetting about his book?

I could see the term as a simple gesture of advertisement for his forthcoming book, much like a celebrity has methods of gaining publicity.

I don't mind the term, simply because it does not matter how many times he mentions it, the weather is always swinging wildly, and no amount of magical christmas pudding power can stop the inevitable changes in the future, no matter which way they go.

[Nick L]

I don't mind the term "modern era" when it is used to describe the remarkably mild winters of the past 20 years or so, not denying that this is a freakishly long mild run.

What annoys me (and others after skimming through this thread) is the frequency that it is used by a certain member - I have the same opinion as TEITS here. I don't mind Ian coming up with his own theory and occasionally mentioning it - but it's the constant use and referral to explain everything that gets to me. The "modern era" doesn't automatically mean we will never, ever get a properly cold winter again. It WILL happen. We might have to wait a while but it has to happen eventually - even in a warming world.

[paul tall]

If I recall correctly, Ian Brown used to talk about the "even larger teapot", so now it has transcended into the "christmas pudding" has it?

[Osbourne One-Nil]

You've got to hand it to him; for someone whose forecasts are remarkable only for their barely average accuracy, he certainly does get a lot of attention thanks to a little catchphrase.

Max Clifford couldn't do a better job.

Edited November 30, 2009 by Osbourne One-Nil

[Alex95]

What really annoys me about the term is the fact that whilst it obviously isn't impossible to get a severe winter some who use the term would claim this, but there would be no way of proving that you can't totally rule out a colder winter unless we actually had one. But even then it would be labelled as a fluke, and that the next winter had no chance whatsoever of being cold again. Using the term to refer to the past 20 years is fine, but using it in every post is obsessive to say the least, and to say that you're 100% sure that a cold winter is impossible is ludicrous.

[cheeky_monkey]

all this christmas pudding gumpf from 1987 onwards dosnt hold water with regards to winters..it does from 97 onwards though. Using the stats against the 1971-2000 benchmark we find there were four mild winters on the trot between 1972-3 & 1975-6..then no mild winters at all until 1987-8..where we get another three in a row up to 1989-90..then there is only one mild winter (94-5) between 1989-90 & 96-97 one out of seven winters.

Since then we have had eight of the last twelve that were mild, three average and one below average.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

without reading all the other replies to this thread first

NO I do not.

Any era, in my opinion should be a minimum of 50 years if we are talking weather, probably 100 years would be better, but as we, in reality have a paucity of records with the exception of the CET if we go back more than a 150 years, I can understand an objection to 100 years, but 20 years to describe and era? NO, No, No

[pottyprof]

Got to be honest here and say that a google unravels a huge amount of modern era's.. How common that term is. You'd have thought that something more original like, errr.. "The insignificant blip era" or "The best guess era".

I'm not for one bit saying Ian's got it wrong. He may well be right. But "The Modern Era"?? The modern era in History tends to start in the 15th century. Funnily enough, It was rather warm back then too...........................

[Thundery wintry showers]

1992/93 was also mild- especially in January (5.7C CET, and approaching 3C above normal in parts of the south). Of the 1990s winters only 1990/91 and 1995/96 fell significantly below average. On a more local scale, 1993/94 was quite a cold winter in the north and 1996/97 likewise in parts of the south.

Looking closely at this "modern era", the various components of it have actually been phased in quite gradually.

• Change towards more +ve NAO and stronger westerlies- around 1988 (with if anything a slight relaxing of the NAO since the turn of the century, but also a further poleward movement of the jet),
  
• Decline in frequency of easterlies- around 1988, but also a step-change around 1997 which saw no reduction in the frequency of easterlies but a sudden near-absence of potent ones,
  
• Warming of our cold air sources- this took until around 2002 to make its presence felt,
  
• Increased cyclogenesis around Iceland/Greenland- this appears to have increased steadily over the period and become more especially prominent since around 2002,
  
• Higher SSTs around the same region- likewise.
  

What comes out here is that the UK has seen two sets of step-changes around 1988 and 1997, but the Arctic also saw one around 2002 which has impacted especially on the potency of Britain's northerlies and the reduction in the number of "clean" northerly flows.

[Snowyowl9]

Modern 1987 onwards december when atlantic air seemed to became less clean/that watery haze we never use to get before.

And frequent atlantic storms like february 1988 which seemed very modern to me at the time,giving daytime softhailstones in storm force winds,but seemed like something I`ve never seen before.

How about this when you here a modern classic movie,where would you start the 80`s to me.

Depends on your age I think when you would call modern.

[Guest]

Overall we have had some periods of time when colder winters have predominated and treated us to a touch of the easterlies but even so these periods have had milder winters interspersed and unless a specific pattern of hot/cold or mild can be established we have to put it down the the vaguaries of our climate. It goes in cycles - one year a winter like 1963 will return.

And shouldn't the Latin term for mild be "tepidus"

[Weather-history]

I think it is an essentially meaningless term. By definition, whatever era one lives in will be "modern" until one day, it isn't. Hence my sig!

The term itself doesn't especially annoy me; it's more the manner of, shall we say, its over-deployment by certain posters on the site - as in, every other post on some threads.

Endlessly repeating a phrase doesn't prove a theory. Rather, it renders one the human equivalent of a parrot.

Agree with this

[Weather-history]

However, he expresses it in too absolute (black and white) and egotistical a fashion, and there is a sense that there may be subtle attempts to wind up in there.

Agree with this as well. The repeating of the term smacks of what I would call "Countdown Syndrome" in that if it is used often enough it will get in the dictionary. Why the urgency to be famous for doing this?

[Rollo]

I have never liked it even though the last 20 years would suggest somthing leaning towards that saying has existed,like a lot of posters it is the fact that it is rammed down our throats so often that irks me.

[Methuselah]

Interestingly though, so far there are no indications for a 'Modern Era' winter happening this time round...I hope I've not spoken too soon!

[Nick B]

Interestingly though, so far there are no indications for a 'christmas pudding' winter happening this time round...I hope I've not spoken too soon!

So far as I know the phrase has not been patented to mean the warm blip in temperature between 1992 and 2007/8. ( ... I'll have a McModern with extra fries please... )

So, why not use it in particular when you refer to the 'christmas pudding' when describing evidence or findings of cooling as well as warming? That's the best response, particularly for everyone who has found its use for one continually repeated idea galling!

[ukmoose]

The 'christmas pudding' is seen by some as a a term used to describe the last 20 years of UK winter weather. Its used a lot by some on the model output discussion.

The term as I understand seeks to summarise the last 20 uk winters, which have generally been characterised by a lack of real cold particularly long lasting or any wide spread long lasting snow cover.

Forgetting last year, which some people suggest was localised and anyway lack real cold, no one can dispute over all for cold lovers the last 20 uk winter years has been disappointing

So why don't I like the term, I'm ok with labels we use them to describe 'the little ice age 1150 -1460' and numerous others.

What I don't like about the term is some people seem to 'suggest' we cant now go back to seeing a 47 63 or even a 86 /87 type period

Seems to imply a permanent fundamental shift rather then a blink on the stats.

Any thoughts ?

That's a reasonable assessment of the situation. I like the term myself and use it often. It's clear, concise and conveys meaning to everyone even if some people don't like it.

Don't quite think your reason for not liking it is quite right - it doesn't convey what will happen in the future at all, just what has happened in the recent past and continues to the present.

Winters have changed (like it or not) and hiding from the fact by not liking the term being used doesn't change anything. Winters have been without extensive cold for a number of years in the UK period.

Yeah, it's a useful term I think just one that frustrates some people (not you necessarily) perhaps because they don't want to accept that change has happened or believe it hasn't even happened.

It's ok not to like the term - but that shouldn't prevent people from using it in their musings if they wish.

[Polar Continental]

I do not dislike the term ‘christmas pudding’, though not wishing to be pedantic, this is a weather forum, the term christmas pudding is not really the correct term, in my opinion. The beginning of the ‘christmas pudding’ or modern times, see link. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_history

As has been said early, our warm winter over the last 20 years or so (Modern Warming) have in my opinion, no bearing on future winters.

The climate will change, it may become warmer, it may become colder, who really knows?