Model Output Discussion

[Typhoon John]

Hi,

NOAA go for the formhorse ECM and those shortwaves may scupper any chances of cold.....Possible backtracks GFS in a couple of days............Unless the ECM comes totally on board I can see the GFS Model backtracking from the Easterly scenario by Monday.

Regards

CV

But the ECM is on board.

In fact it's probably more realistic in the long term by delaying the Easterly. But overall ECM is a very good run.

[phil nw.]

Im going to stick my neck out here-

ive seen the ECM out to 240- & whilst the initial spoiler low gets in the way I dont think its enough to overide the background signal of the plunging modality of the AO-

ECM is exciting 216 & 240...................

Steve

ECM is an improvement compared to 00z anyway Steve, for those seeking the cold evolution.

I think if we hadn`t seen the GFS 12z first we would have taken this.

The first stage is halting the energy from the Atlantic trough and the High to our South building which is within T120-144hrs.

Like you say heights are good on ECM over the pole eventually but the timing is slower because of the s/w earler in the run.

Could still miss the real deal i suppose but at least it looks dryer and at least somewhat colder later.

[snowmadchrisuk]

But the ECM is on board.

In fact it's probably more realistic in the long term by delaying the Easterly. But overall ECM is a very good run.

Couldn't agree more with them comments. It is an evolving process , ECM 240 has pressure rises extending over Greenland , all it does is slightly delay the cold getting this far West. Its taken a few years but I am learning a lot now , and am looking at the models in the way I am suppose to .

Chris

p.s. Brian we need a new model thread for the 18z I Think.

Edited December 4, 2009 by snowmadchrisuk

[Geordiesnow]

Better ECM than i thought it would of been, trends has been for pressure to rise for the UK and at least the ECM has come on board in this respect.

Still have me doubts that any cold spell from the east will occur but i am a little bit more confident than i was this morning but it can still go wrong.

I would say the ECM is more likely to occur due to the fact that past experiences would tell me the GFS normally struggles with complex set ups like this. As others say, potentially an interesting few days or so of model watching and no doubt it will be a rollercoaster ride.

[cooling climate]

The shortwave being shown by the ECM may or may not be right, we know what the GFS is like

with shortwaves so one to watch over the coming days.

Even if the ECM is right, as others have said this will only act to delay rather than scupper any

very cold outbreak.

Seriously I would advise any one betting on a white Christmas to get their bets on before the

bookies get a whiff of this otherwise odds will plummet along with the temperatures.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Better ECM than i thought it would of been, trends has been for pressure to rise for the UK and at least the ECM has come on board in this respect.

Still have me doubts that any cold spell from the east will occur but i am a little bit more confident than i was this morning but it can still go wrong.

I would say the ECM is more likely to occur due to the fact that past experiences would tell me the GFS normally struggles with complex set ups like this. As others say, potentially an interesting few days or so of model watching and no doubt it will be a rollercoaster ride.

Don't blame just GFS , what about the other models , Have you seen No gaps it is brilliant. I think we will be sure of a cold snap as long as we get the pressure rise as is shown on nearly all the models at +144 . It may delay a couple of days but with the blocking signal there then a link up with Greenland is more likely than usual . :lol:

[reef]

This will be locked in a moment with a new thread ready for the GFS 18z.

[ChartViewer]

The shortwave being shown by the ECM may or may not be right, we know what the GFS is like

with shortwaves so one to watch over the coming days.

Even if the ECM is right, as others have said this will only act to delay rather than scupper any

very cold outbreak.

Seriously I would advise any one betting on a white Christmas to get their bets on before the

bookies get a whiff of this otherwise odds will plummet along with the temperatures.

[/quote

Hi,

Thats a massive bold statement to be honest. The NOAA discussion does not back these comments up.

what they said was discard the GFS runs yesterday and stick with the ECM. Now the ECM does NOT get on board entirely and shows shortwaves and a scenario which does not bring in a full blown Easterly.

Regards

CV

I think theres a long way to go before anyone can claim we are in for a White Xmas but I admire your optimism

[Optimus Prime]

It's now looking more interesting as we see the start of the retrogression at 144 hrs.

[reef]

A new thread here: