Model Output Discussion

[londonsnow]

always exciting when FI throws up such astonishing charts. if they came off, as i think steve murr suggested, it would provide a very tricky christmas travel wise. if those charts came to fruition we would be buried in snow, and the uk travel infrastructure would be in dire straits. realistically, it won't happen, odds on, and we'll end up with a green and pleasant christmas. lets get a few more runs under our belt before we decide

[phil nw.]

A messy fax chart at T120hrs.

Shows the disrupted trough over uk with plenty of low centres and fronts.

A wet and windy period for the weekend with some slightly milder air from the South.

High pressure to the North and East that showed earlier in the week now pushed well away to the East for now.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

2 runs in a row, thats a record for the gfs, maybe a new trend then

3 Run in a row including last nights 18z , then the 2 today , and it 1st showed this 2days ago in the 18z which was blown out the water the next morning , only to show its face again last night , i said last night if we got another 3 runs the same its on to somethin , iv never saw them handsome charts in the 2yrs model watchin iv done, just ones thats been posted from past winters like 1963 , im exited now iv got to be honest , its comin for xmas like the winter forecast suggest , netweather, TheWeatherOutlook, and the chap in America, (iv 4gotton what he was on sorry lol) have all gone for extensive northern blocking this winter and it seems to me its finaly materialising

[Yozzer]

3 Run in a row including last nights 18z , then the 2 today , and it 1st showed this 2days ago in the 18z which was blown out the water the next morning , only to show its face again last night , i said last night if we got another 3 runs the same its on to somethin , iv never saw them handsome charts in the 2yrs model watchin iv done, just ones thats been posted from past winters like 1963 , im exited now iv got to be honest , its comin for xmas like the winter forecast suggest , netweather, TheWeatherOutlook, and the chap in America, (iv 4gotton what he was on sorry lol) have all gone for extensive northern blocking this winter and it seems to me its finaly materialising

Right Mods, do we have ramper's corner open, and in anticipation of it all going ti#s up for the 12z onwards, the reappearance of whingeing corner???

[Optimus Prime]

iv never saw them handsome charts in the 2yrs model watchin iv done, just ones thats been posted from past winters like 1963 , im exited now iv got to be honest , its comin for xmas like the winter forecast suggest , netweather, TheWeatherOutlook, and the chap in America,

Noo! There have been BETTER charts than that posted here in the 144 hour time frame for it to become no more then a close edge easterl - ask Steve Murr.

And 1963 had hardly any good easterlys,

[Coast]

Right Mods, do we have ramper's corner open, and in anticipation of it all going ti#s up for the 12z onwards

I've already started! netweather.tv/topic

the reappearance of whingeing corner???

Feel free to carry on at length here: netweather.tv/topic

But don't be surprised if it needs new sections opening quite frequently :lol:

[The PIT]

Ah the beast from the east re-run in deep FI. Wondered what the excitement was about. Won't happen folks chill out.

Anyway if we're not having cold a slightly better looking 06 oz with the prospect of some windy stuff to liven things up.

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

Even if these FI charts did come off it's still a month to early for me - take in the warm North Sea, relatively warm continent and even those charts would be marginal for the east, but looking promising!

[Backtrack]

Right,

I'm gonna sound like a right tart here but here goes;

Just read one of Pete Tattums' post and he said this thread is where to ask questions!

I have a few :lol:

What's the 06 oz

What's the 12z

And whats the 18z?

Sorry.. I know i sound stupid but the only charts I understand are the GFS (which I recently figured out)

[loophole]

Jaw Dropping Charts :lol:

The winter rollercoaster begins....

[nick sussex]

The MJO has just scraped into phase 7

http://www.cawcr.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/RMM/phase.Last40days.html

I know GP said the GWO is more important but this is still a decent sign.

Whats interesting is that the actual forecasts by ncep/gefs dont have this going into phase 7, so why this difference, equally could the model output be lagging behind here, if these are the ensemble members this wouldn't make any sense.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52qz/mjoindex/index/diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_membera.gif

Edited December 2, 2009 by nick sussex

[Matt Jones]

If the last few charts of the 06Z came off I think even the coast could be the right side of marginal, engulfed in -15 uppers, the flow from siberia is perfect, but like Victor Meldrew "I don't believe it"

[Troubleatmill]

Right,

I'm gonna sound like a right tart here but here goes;

Just read one of Pete Tattums' post and he said this thread is where to ask questions!

I have a few :lol:

What's the 06 oz

What's the 12z

And whats the 18z?

Sorry.. I know i sound stupid but the only charts I understand are the GFS (which I recently figured out)

You just answered your own question good buddy, the 06z 12z 18z 00z are the four GFS runs of the day :lol:

[Geordiesnow]

Why do i get the feeling we are climbing up a rollercoaster yet i feel that the steep drop back to the bottom is only moments away.

I am pretty certain that by 4:40 that the glum posts will return. I suppose one positive i do take is that a few days ago the ECM 12Z hinted at a possible easterly and height rises albeit at a much closer range. Just because 3 GFS FI's shown something similer means very little in my eyes as tge next run could get rid of the idea all together.

Even if the Easterly does dissapear, it does not mean the chance is gone so don't get too downhearted if the 12Z does indeed get rid of any cold Easterly hopes.

[karyo]

The MJO has just scraped into phase 7

http://www.cawcr.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/RMM/phase.Last40days.html

I know GP said the GWO is more important but this is still a decent sign.

And in blue as well for December! Might be a sign... :lol:

Once again the MJO forecasts proved to be a joke! It was expected that the MJO would weaken and then emerge into phases 4 or 5. No single ensemble had it reaching phase 7!

Karyo

[Jack Wales]

High pressure to the North and East that showed earlier in the week now pushed well away to the East for now.

I think this is why we need to take a reality check here, these charts are still deep in FI (as they always seem to be in winter) and as I see it the evolution from T+204 onwards seems improbable given the strength of the jet (sub 950 lp cell over north Scotland) to a 1050hp scandi high shortly afterwards.

Whilst I accept there are signals for a split of the polar vortex and negative AO, there are still a number of factors which could change the overall pattern. The Arctic height rises could manifest themselves further east/west. This would probably be aided by the power of the jet which could displace the blocking north and/or east resulting in the cold being displaced over east/southeast Europe. Or failing that there is always a chance of a little shortwave putting a spanner in the works.

Whilst I would welcome a change from the current synoptics, my experience of previous winters and model watching has rendered me cautious! If these charts are still appearing after the weekend, then it will be time to start ramping.

Edited December 2, 2009 by Jack Wales

[kold weather]

Ensembles not quite so keen though it has to be said and besides the evolution could very easily run amiss at any stage. It is however a more realisitic evolution and the ECM is general similar, even though I have huge doubts the ECM would evolve like the GFS...ECM probably would result in a high pressure building over the Uk/Europe, but close enough to the UK to not to be all that mild thankfully.

For the mid-term, we are if anything moving away from a cold set-up and whilst there is still a lot of hope for cold its all being shunted out...expect one of the next few GFS op runs to be a bad one, expect to see a battle between the models suggesting something close to Bartlett high and some going for a Scandi high...wouldn't shock me to see both come into plat in December...

[Methuselah]

And 1963 had hardly any good easterlys,

Really? One of many, methinks: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1963/Rrea00119630217.gif

[tcc]

Right,

I'm gonna sound like a right tart here but here goes;

Just read one of Pete Tattums' post and he said this thread is where to ask questions!

I have a few :lol:

What's the 06 oz

What's the 12z

And whats the 18z?

Sorry.. I know i sound stupid but the only charts I understand are the GFS (which I recently figured out)

Hi Backtrack,

They are connected to GFS which has 4 runs each day, 00, 06, 12 and 18.

These start coming out in this order:

00z - 4am

06z - 10am

12z - 4pm

18z - 10pm

Each run has slightly different data attached to them, the other Forecasting systems that are good to follow:

ECMWF - European Forecasting model

UKMO - Met Office forecasting model

GEM - I think is the Canadian forecasting model

These can all be found here @ Netweather or here if you like German http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsenseur.html

Hope that helps!

I'm not going to get excited yet until the major models are consistent @ 96hours...even then I'll be hiding behind the sofa!

[nick sussex]

And in blue as well for December! Might be a sign... :lol:

Once again the MJO forecasts proved to be a joke! It was expected that the MJO would weaken and then emerge into phases 4 or 5. No single ensemble had it reaching phase 7!

Karyo

Yes its strange, is there an error, if not surely this means the models aren't accurately conveying upstream events in their starting conditions.

[Polar Gael]

Blimey and furthermore blimey!

The GFS, not content with getting supertanked up before hitting the pub last night, appears to have spent all night in said hostelry enjoying a meteorological lock-in fuelled by pints of Beasterly and several synoptic sing-songs, culminating in the charts at 300 hours+.

If it carries on at this rate, it'll be in the Priory before Christmas.

It would be lovely if it verified to continue the sequence: December 1981, December 1995, December 2009 :lol: - but for the moment it's typical FI eye-candy. Beautiful eye-candy for coldies, but eye-candy nonetheless.

It's nice to dream, though. :lol:

PS: I can sense the imminent return of SATSIGS and Commander Stratos Ferric. Sir, your public needs you!

Edited December 2, 2009 by Polar Gael

[SP1986]

In essence GFS 6z FI is why it needs to be got rid of (T192 onwards thats is).

Personally I can live without T192+

[Optimus Prime]

Really? One of many, methinks: http://www.wetterzen...00119630217.gif

There was a study we did sometime ago and we couldn't find an outstanding easterly from the 1963 winter aside from December 1962 and the middle of January. It was more the fact it was persistantly easterly which meant it was very cold rather then any very cold individual spells.

The chart you posted had -10c 850HPA just creeping across the NE of England which for the majority it was -6c. Compare that to early February this year where it was down to -13c across much of England.

[Backtrack]

Hi Backtrack,

They are connected to GFS which has 4 runs each day, 00, 06, 12 and 18.

These start coming out in this order:

00z - 4am

06z - 10am

12z - 4pm

18z - 10pm

Each run has slightly different data attached to them, the other Forecasting systems that are good to follow:

ECMWF - European Forecasting model

UKMO - Met Office forecasting model

GEM - I think is the Canadian forecasting model

These can all be found here @ Netweather or here if you like German http://www.wetterzen...n/fsenseur.html

Hope that helps!

I'm not going to get excited yet until the major models are consistent @ 96hours...even then I'll be hiding behind the sofa!

Thanks mate!

I do hear many people talking about thge ECMWF, UKMO and GEM, maybe now I can read through and understand what people are posting!

Thanks again!

[Polar Gael]

In essence GFS 6z FI is why it needs to be got rid of (T192 onwards thats is).

Personally I can live without T192+

Ah, but think how much duller life (and this forum) would be if all we had were model runs that verified the vast majority of the time.

Perhaps more scientific, but a lot of the colour and joy (or irrational exuberance, if you prefer) would be lost.

Besides, FI does pick up on trends from time to time and practice makes perfect.