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Model Output Discussion


Methuselah

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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

Good one for Northern Greece perhaps though. It would be good to see some deep snow over Greece (if we can't see it ourselves)

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Yep, the UKMO has actually done quite well with the pattern in the last week. thats a pretty bad run though thats for sure.

Very hard call, nearly all models do raise the hieghts to our east but its whether or not the jet buckles or whether it stays zonal and flattens it all out, as I've said before, we will probably either be in a cold pattern, or a very mild one, there isn't much scope for anything else IMO. We either get HP over us or to our NE, or a flat SW flow with possibly a Euro/Bartlett high with it.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Were we expecting anything else at that range?

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level

Seems to be not too bad, but it's a warm outlier over moscow way, and that's where we need the cold to build first.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess=

Bit too chopped about in FI in our neck of the woods to be too concerned

Edited by cyclonic happiness
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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

People have to realize that easterlies are often the hardest things for models to forecast, many times its down to one pesky shortwave here or there that means the difference between success and failure. You can't really be sure of an easterly often till within 96hrs, even less sometimes so its going to be very traumatic if people take each FI output as gospel, moan over!

Since 1-2 March 2001 (or 31 December 1996 if you discount easterlies with distinctly "northerly" sources) the only easterly that has delivered a non-marginal snow event to the Tyne & Wear coast (i.e. not the slushy mess of 21-23 February 2005, 3 January 2008 or 2 February 2009) was that of 27-29 December 2005.

That easterly wasn't unanimously agreed on by the models until about T+72. The GFS 06Z, and to a lesser extent 12Z, runs repeatedly showed it from much further out (as much as T+168 on the 06Z) but the 18Z and 00Z runs kept going for milder solutions. I remember the UKMO also taking until about T+72 to start showing it- ECMWF slightly further out, at around T+120.

My personal view is that the cold air is unlikely to make it far enough west this time around. We might get "another bite at the cherry" towards the end of December or into early January as I have a feeling that this kind of pattern will recur through the winter, and it closely resembles Glacier Point's analogues, especially 1965/66.

Btw the El Nino winter of 1997/98 did have a brief easterly outbreak around 15-17 December but the high soon retreated south bringing in a warmer SE'ly- there was some snow in the south on the 16th/17th but in the north it was cloudy and 5C for most of the spell. We also came very close to cold spells in late Jan/early Feb 1998, and around 1st March, but shortwaves scuppered our chances in both cases.

What I don't see on the models is any sign of a repeat of February 1998's synoptics (probably the wrong time of year anyway). In February 1998, there was very little blocking anywhere near Scandinavia! In fact one feasible evolution from the end of the 12Z sees our Azores High head north, merge with the Scandinavian High and bring in a cold ENE'ly.

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

lol as little as 5 hours ago exciting stuff now complete dissapointment.

this is why i refuse to bother with fi will the cold win out well i dont think so.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

TWS, the thing is if we do not get the right outcome then something close to Feb 1998 wouldn't be at all far fatched, I do grant you I think the jet wil lbe a little too close and robust for that sort of set-up but its not that out there really and a few ensemble members look rather similar to that Bartlett we had that month.

As for the ensembles, they show that things are really borderline, small changes makes the difference between a monster easterly/cold inversion high and a very/exceptionally mild Bartlett/Euro high set-up. The two FI's of the last two runs shows exactly what I mean, though the 12z GFS was by no means as bad as it can get...

Ensemble run of the day goes to member 17 for its ability to have sustained cold, though of course number 5 is also amazing for its beast from the east.

ps, yeah TWS that could evolve eventually, probably not before xmas though, and the jet stream suggests to me that we'd become very entrenched in the mild set-up to be honest, esp given where the vortexes are set-up.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: South Of Bristol
  • Location: South Of Bristol

lol as little as 5 hours ago exciting stuff now complete dissapointment.

this is why i refuse to bother with fi will the cold win out well i dont think so.

My first post of this season, had to do it now. Great point by badboy657, sums this thread up really sometimes. But hey, I love the ups and downs

of model watching. Just waiting for the TEITS and S.Murr for their points of view.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

The 12z GFS output in FI illustrates the danger of the trough sitting W of the UK and an active Atlantic flow for a protracted period, in that it forces a Bartlett high to form with continued WAA across SW Europe. Though, the bartty maybe no more likely than the easterlies shown on earlier runs though mild and wet continuing would be the more likely than a cold easterly.

IMO best to continue to be over-cautious with regards to any more blocking showing to the N and NE actually materialising. Unfortunately – those who have watched the models each winter over recent years will know, even when the MJO, AO, stratosphere, etc. looks favourable – the UK still seems to end up with mild or at best a much watered down and brief cold snap in the end, not helped by El Nino – while NE or E Europe ends up being the beneficiaries of the cold pools that look to get displaced equatorward due to those height rises/warmings over the polar region. The models today seem to be picking up on more upper flow energy coming across the Atlantic which in turn forces more of a ridge over France/Spain and prevents retrogression of the high out of NE Europe.

Still, at least the potential is there for those progged polar height rises/warmings to work in our favour for a cold spell … but whether there is any cigar we’ve still some way to go to see, perhaps not till late in the month as some have animated.

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Posted
  • Location: Shorne West, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, Snow in Winter
  • Location: Shorne West, Kent

Huge scatter on the GFS 12z ens....and the operational run was not without support.

However having said that one member still drops to -17 for London !!

http://85.25.71.112/wz/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/8884/gens-5-0-372_tde1.png

Intriguing to say the least.

Edited by Shunter
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Posted
  • Location: East Anglia
  • Location: East Anglia

I knew 4 in a row would be a step too far, but this thread does make me laugh, up and down like a yo-yo about synoptics that the models can not possibly get right at this range. I expect the easterly will be on and off a few more times over the next few days, I don’t know how some of you cope. A little bit of common sense as to what the models are capable of would be a good place to start, maybe some Yoga or tantric sex or just don’t look for a few days.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Looking more like the winter setup we're used to in 200x years. Mild wet and windy at times. After we get rid of the normal to cool spell in the next few days that is.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I knew 4 in a row would be a step too far

I'm sure the 18z will deliver something special like it did last night although I missed it unfortunately. It just makes me wonder how the gfs can pick up a trend for 4 runs in a row and then completely drop it in favour of the tripe it served up this afternoon, maybe it should just go out to T+144 so as not to make itself look stupid as it does most days.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

I'm sure the 18z will deliver something special like it did last night although I missed it unfortunately. It just makes me wonder how the gfs can pick up a trend for 4 runs in a row and then completely drop it in favour of the tripe it served up this afternoon, maybe it should just go out to T+144 so as not to make itself look stupid as it does most days.

Well if anyone watched the GFS?ECM during the failed beast from the east will remember it got from a long way out to t120 and then disappeared overnight. That was certainly more runs than four.

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Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

I'm sure the 18z will deliver something special like it did last night although I missed it unfortunately. It just makes me wonder how the gfs can pick up a trend for 4 runs in a row and then completely drop it in favour of the tripe it served up this afternoon, maybe it should just go out to T+144 so as not to make itself look stupid as it does most days.

From what I could see on the operational n/hemisphere charts as the vortex split small short waves were pulled back

over to the Russian side this stopped the building of heights to the n/e of the Russian vortex and also

stopped the vortex moving westward.

The operational may or may not be right, at this range detail like that is sketchy at best. My money is still

odds on for a real taste of winter to come.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

i think we are looking at a long season on here ................

the runs are merely computer models of the atmosphere which is chaotic. of course patterns can come and go, stay and change over a 16 day range. as input data changes, so will the runs.

maybe it would be better if they did stop at T192. but then what would we talk about?? its a bit like football. of course it would be fairer with video evidence - but then with no disputes, what would talk sport do all week???!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Northampton (90m ASL)
  • Location: Northampton (90m ASL)

Huge scatter on the GFS 12z ens....and the operational run was not without support.

However having said that one member still drops to -17 for London !!

http://85.25.71.112/wz/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/8884/gens-5-0-372_tde1.png

Intriguing to say the least.

Here's the fella:

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-5-1-360.png?12

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-5-0-372.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Well if anyone watched the GFS?ECM during the failed beast from the east will remember it got from a long way out to t120 and then disappeared overnight. That was certainly more runs than four.

Oh yes I remember that now, it showed the beasterly for nearly a week then it vanished but from what I remember, it hardly had any ensemble support throughout but stuck with it whereas the ecm never bought into it whatsoever. I don't think we can really look beyond the very unsettled phase which is set to last beyond T+168 hours and all we can do is hope that we get a decent cold snap later in the month, compared to the same time a year ago it's been a very disappointing season so far for the lack of anything cold and hardly any frost.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

From what I could see on the operational n/hemisphere charts as the vortex split small short waves were pulled back

over to the Russian side this stopped the building of heights to the n/e of the Russian vortex and also

stopped the vortex moving westward.

The operational may or may not be right, at this range detail like that is sketchy at best. My money is still

odds on for a real taste of winter to come.

That's a good explanation for what went wrong. :D

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The ecm at 168hrs looks like departing from the rest of the models by trying to sink the trough. Heights increasing in the Svalbard region, could be a big difference in FI here compared to the gfs.

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Wow we're impatient for a good fix ... hold your horses 'till it's all out ... could go either way :D

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

ECM don't look that good either if you want cold ...

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The ecm looks not bad at 240hrs and better than the gfs but the juries still out. The problem is that alot still needs to go right even to get to this point, the positive is that the ecm at least doesn't deflate the mood further in this thread!

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Posted
  • Location: Sholver - Oldham East - 250m / 820ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowageddon and a new ice age. Then a summer long bbq heatwave!
  • Location: Sholver - Oldham East - 250m / 820ft ASL

ECM at 144hrs looking good.

Well I was going to say that the 12z GFS ensembles RE moscow, Oslo and icland from my perspective show

Highish pressure remaining over oslo, the operational was the lowest of the bunch with the mean on or above 1020 indicating the low pressure to move south rather than north, even the ensembles for iceland with the operational being the lowest pressure member with most indicating a slow rise in trend of pressure, again to me says the low will head more south.

Lastely for moscow and again the GFS 12Z operational is the lowest pressure member with the magority in favour of High-ish (1020+) pressure which I personally think still gives the chance of pressure rises over Scandi but more importantly the possibillity of HP over svalbard and the low near iceland to sink south rather than edge north or NE across Iceland and stop HP from droping down over Svalbard.

Looks like the 12z ECM could also be showing this. Can I just say that alot of models since last friday have hinted at Pressure rises to our far north and east and could still very much be likely.

Im not sure how it will pan out on the rest of ECM and equally unsure of what implications would arise for the Low moving more south than progged on the 12Z gfs but i do not buy LP moving north easterly regardless off what is shown in the 12z models nor do I buy Hp over Moscow or russia for that matter being blasted out the way :D

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