Will The Lowest Temperature Record Be Beaten In Scotland This Year?

[Backtrack]

Will the lowest temperature record be beaten this year in Scotland?

Thinking of getting my dad to throw me a couple of quid on 'Yes'

25/1 the odds are, so nice payout if so!

[Guest]

It will be one day but not just yet.

[JRMcLeod]

Possibly, sure its been broken on the top of cairngorm or ben nevis anyways since it was established...

[Backtrack]

Possibly, sure its been broken on the top of cairngorm or ben nevis anyways since it was established...

I dont think the bookies count mountains.

[Buzzit]

Nope I was thinking next year myself

[osmposm]

Good God, no, not a chance.

I dunno.....a couple of fun-in-FI GFS runs, and suddenly it's back to business as usual!

[trickydicky]

Good God, no, not a chance.

I dunno.....a couple of fun-in-FI GFS runs, and suddenly it's back to business as usual!

Why? The record was only equaled in 1995 and we've had a -20 in March in the oh so warm noughties. So should similar synoptics occur this December or January, with the accompanying lack of sunlight and low sun strength compared to March, there's no reason why we couldn't get respectively close.

Thats not to say I think it will happen, I just hate it when people say something definitely wont happen. You never know

Edited December 2, 2009 by trickydicky

[Nights King]

But the record be broken for england?

[Norrance]

I dont think the bookies count mountains.

The coldest temps are in frost hollows in mountainous areas so the tops are not in fact colder [though a lot windier and more dangerous]. I think the old records from the long defunct weather station at the top of Ben Nevis confirm that fact.

On clear frosty nights Aviemore is colder than the Cairngorm weather station also.

Edited December 2, 2009 by Norrance

[Thundery wintry showers]

Extremely unlikely- even if the easterly in the GFS FI comes off!

Record low temperatures in Scotland tend to result from northerly outbreaks (or easterlies with a "northerly" source) where the cold air is centred to the N and NE of Britain and gets a chance to establish over a period of a few days and is followed by a slackening of the airflow resulting in very cold clear nights over deep snow cover. The Decembers of 1981 and 1995, and late February 1955, and the more recent incursion in March 2001, all produced good examples of this.

A "continental" style easterly type tends to result in central and southern England being the coldest area of the country, especially by day. This is because northern districts see more airmass modification over the North Sea, although if the airmass is particularly cold then it can also result in north-eastern districts being hit by severe snowstorms due to this extra modification over the sea. So if any records were to be broken it would most likely be in southern England.

[Methuselah]

Hi Ian,

In most of those situations (Jan '79 had a few nippers too) there was also fairly deep snow covering quite wide areas...

[Backtrack]

Extremely unlikely- even if the easterly in the GFS FI comes off!

Record low temperatures in Scotland tend to result from northerly outbreaks (or easterlies with a "northerly" source) where the cold air is centred to the N and NE of Britain and gets a chance to establish over a period of a few days and is followed by a slackening of the airflow resulting in very cold clear nights over deep snow cover. The Decembers of 1981 and 1995, and late February 1955, and the more recent incursion in March 2001, all produced good examples of this.

A "continental" style easterly type tends to result in central and southern England being the coldest area of the country, especially by day. This is because northern districts see more airmass modification over the North Sea, although if the airmass is particularly cold then it can also result in north-eastern districts being hit by severe snowstorms due to this extra modification over the sea. So if any records were to be broken it would most likely be in southern England.

Thanks for the info Ian!

Even with that Easterly out in FI I don't think the current record will be broken in England (which is -26.1c)

But if a strong Northery was to occur resulting in prolonged snow cover and clear nights, I think it may be possible in Scotland, obviously we don't know if there will even be any more Northerlies this winter, they could all be Easterlies and frontal snow from Western fronts!

Edited December 2, 2009 by Backtrack

[osmposm]

Why? The record was only equaled in 1995 and we've had a -20 in March in the oh so warm noughties. So should similar synoptics occur this December or January, with the accompanying lack of sunlight and low sun strength compared to March, there's no reason why we couldn't get respectively close.

Thats not to say I think it will happen, I just hate it when people say something definitely wont happen. You never know

Of course you're right, TD, it could happen at any time. Sorry to have annoyed, but in view of its timing (after the FI Iceagenow model runs) I took this as a fairly light-hearted thread requesting personal opinions, especially as one of the vote options was (pretty light-heartedly) worded "Not by a long shot!". And hence my not-to-be-taken-too-seriously choice of wording for the answer!

Over in Climate Change I've recently been berated for taking things too seriously - I guess I was attempting, clumsily, to display a sense of humour.....

Edited December 2, 2009 by osmposm

[Backtrack]

Of course you're right, TD, it could happen at any time. Sorry to have annoyed, but in view of its timing (after the FI Iceagenow model runs) I took this as a fairly light-hearted thread requesting personal opinions, especially as one of the vote options was (pretty light-heartedly) worded "Not by a long shot!". And hence my not-to-be-taken-too-seriously choice of wording for the answer!

Over in Climate Change I've recently been berated for taking things too seriously - I guess I was attempting, clumsily, to display a sense of humour.....

You are entitled to an opinon, if you wasn't I wouldn't of opened this thread. :lol:

[Mondy]

Good God, no, not a chance.

I dunno.....a couple of fun-in-FI GFS runs, and suddenly it's back to business as usual!

It must be no fun being a warmer nowadays?

*that too is an attempt at humour displayed on a bulletin board..

[Backtrack]

Maybe it isn't worth putting my bet on afterall :lol:

[Optimus Prime]

February this year managed -18.4c after the snow and freezing temperatures.

It's very unlikely. 1 in a 90 year event at best (even when it was colder) the -26.2c record for England (in the 81/82 winter) will never be broken again realistically due to just how built up this country is now.