Annual Cet - 2010

[Tom D]

Try Excel - worked for me. You'll need to select 'all files' to see the file when you browse to open it though. Follow the import instructions and it should appear in a table.

Many thanks! That data is really interesting, will definitely spend some time analysing that.

While looking briefly at the data, it made me wonder why the Met Office use a 30-year average (or 40?) to compare the CET to? Why not use a much larger time period given the availability of data back to 1659?

Maybe I'm mistaken, but don't they use the most recent period to decide if a month is above/below average?

EDIT: Just been playing around and created this graph which upon inital analysis is quite interesting. It appears that some months can be trending cooler while others trending warmer, as well as trending differently to the year as a whole.

Edited December 30, 2010 by Tom D

[Stargazer]

Try Excel - worked for me. You'll need to select 'all files' to see the file when you browse to open it though. Follow the import instructions and it should appear in a table.

If I select Firefox it works too, but if you want to manipulate the figures (e.g. to find highest and lowest) Excel is more useful, of course.

Like others I have found that climate-uk only appears to work correctly with IE.

Edited December 30, 2010 by Stargazer

[Weather-history]

The below average CETs for 2010 with December yet to be confirmed but its going to have a whopper of a negative anomaly as well.

Nov 2010: 5.2 (-1.7)

Oct 2010: 10.3 (-0.1)

Aug 2010: 15.3 (-0.9)

May 2010: 10.7 (-0.6)

Mar 2010: 6.1 (-0.2)

Feb 2010: 2.8 (-1.4)

Jan 2010: 1.4 (-2.8]

Edited December 31, 2010 by Mr_Data

[Weather-history]

There is a chance 2010 may have pipped 1986's CET minimum value and therefore have the lowest annual CET minimum since 1963.

That would be something if it had achieved that.

Edited December 31, 2010 by Mr_Data

[Optimus Prime]

December has come in at -2.5c.

CET minimums for 1986;

January 0.9c

February -3.4c (4th lowest on record)

March 1.3c

April 2.2c (7th lowest on record)

May 7.1c

June 10.0c

July 11.9c

August 10.0c

September 6.6c (lowest on record)

October 7.4c

November 4.6c

December 3.4c

Mean 5.16c (18th lowest)

2010

January -0.9c (15th lowest on record)

February 0.1c

March 2.2c

April 3.8c

May 5.9c (26th lowest on record)

June 10.0

July 12.8c (14th highest on record)

August 11.2c

September 9.9c

October 6.9c

November 2.5c

December -2.5c (4th lowest on record with corrections may push it to equal lowest at -2.7c)

Mean 5.15c (16th lowest)

Certainly will beat 1986. December and November this year is what destroyed 1986.

Compare both of those to 1963;

January -4.8c (lowest on record)

February -3.4c (3rd lowest)

March 2.5c

April 4.9c

May 6.4c

June 10.4c

July 10.7c (15th lowest)

August 10.5c (17th lowest)

September 8.9c

October 8.0c (22nd highest)

November 5.3c (18th highest)

December -0.1c (15th lowest)

Mean 4.94c (joint 9th lowest)

Even to 1963 this year is comparible.

Edited December 31, 2010 by Optimus Prime

[North-Easterly Blast]

The below average CETs for 2010 with December yet to be confirmed but its going to have a whopper of a negative anomaly as well.

Nov 2010: 5.2 (-1.7)

Oct 2010: 10.3 (-0.1)

Aug 2010: 15.3 (-0.9)

May 2010: 10.7 (-0.6)

Mar 2010: 6.1 (-0.2)

Feb 2010: 2.8 (-1.4)

Jan 2010: 1.4 (-2.8]

Compared to the 1961-90 average:

Nov 2010: 5.2 (-1.4)

Oct 2010: 10.3 (-0.2)

Aug 2010: 15.3 (-0.5)

May 2010: 10.7 (-0.5)

Feb 2010: 2.8 (-1.0)

Jan 2010: 1.4 (-2.4)

In particular when assessing a cooler month I prefer the 1961-90 average as the 1971-2000 average included a very warm decade - the 1990s, which in particular makes some months look on the cool side whereas the 61-90 average makes some cooler months look almost average.

It has certainly been a notably cool year by the standards of the last 20 odd years, has at last made a change from the ludicrously warm years of the last two decades or so and certainly proves that if synoptics shape up favourably then cooler or colder than average conditions in the UK can still occur.

Edited December 31, 2010 by North-Easterly Blast

[Weather-history]

There is a chance 2010 may have pipped 1986's CET minimum value and therefore have the lowest annual CET minimum since 1963.

That would be something if it had achieved that.

Infact it beats it by 0.11C

1986: 5.17

2010: 5.06

[reef]

Hadley is confirmed as 8.83C, making it the coldest since 1986.

Only 7 years were colder since 1895.

[Weather-history]

Trivial facts time

As mentioned before it was the coldest November-December period since 1878 and 4th coldest.

It was the coldest October-December period since 1890, ie the coldest last quarter for a year over a century.

It was the coldest September-December period since 1952 with only 1925 and 1952 being colder in the 20th century than the 2010 period.

--------------------------------

Both January and December having a CET of less than 1.5 in the same year?

Only the 4th occasion that has happened: 1784, 1829, 1879 and 2010

-------------------------------

All 3 winter months in the same year having a CET of less than 3.0C?

Last occasion was 1963 and 1917 was the only other occasion in the 20th century

------------------------------

If you combine the CET fo all 3 winter months in 2010, the average for Jan, Feb and Dec 2010 would be 1.2C

The years which had a colder value than this and some famous years here

1684, 1695, 1740, 1784, 1814, 1838, 1855, 1879, 1895, 1963

------------------------------

The last occasion a year with an annual CET of less than 9.0C and a month recording a CET of greater than 17.0C?

1887

------------------------------

The last occasion a year with an annual CET of less than 9.0C and the summer having a CET greater than 15.0C?

1917

------------------------------

[Ladyofthestorm]

Trivial facts time

As mentioned before it was the coldest November-December period since 1878 and 4th coldest.

It was the coldest October-December period since 1890, ie the coldest last quarter for a year over a century.

It was the coldest September-December period since 1952 with only 1925 and 1952 being colder in the 20th century than the 2010 period.

--------------------------------

Both January and December having a CET of less than 1.5 in the same year?

Only the 4th occasion that has happened: 1784, 1829, 1879 and 2010

-------------------------------

All 3 winter months in the same year having a CET of less than 3.0C?

Last occasion was 1963 and 1917 was the only other occasion in the 20th century

------------------------------

If you combine the CET fo all 3 winter months in 2010, the average for Jan, Feb and Dec 2010 would be 1.2C

The years which had a colder value than this and some famous years here

1684, 1695, 1740, 1784, 1814, 1838, 1855, 1879, 1895, 1963

------------------------------

The last occasion a year with an annual CET of less than 9.0C and a month recording a CET of greater than 17.0C?

1887

------------------------------

The last occasion a year with an annual CET of less than 9.0C and the summer having a CET greater than 15.0C?

1917

------------------------------

All this in a year when the global climate is said to be the warmest on record.... if only that heat was distributed evenly over the UK! A little ironic if I might add. Something is wrong with the understanding somewhere along the line.

What do these CET stats tell you?

Significantly that this may herald the incoming of a more continentally influenced climate, warm dry summers cold dry(ish winters) and deluges of convectional rain inbetween.

Say goodbye to the atlantic welcome continental influences.

[Optimus Prime]

I think all it really tells us, is that natural variation is enabling us to get these cold months while the majority of the earth was warmer than normal. Still awaiting an easterly comparable to 19901, 1987 ect. Most of our cold has come from the NE this year in prolonged spells. This has meant Scotland has been much colder than the south.

[The PIT]

Well at the moment it tells us we're in a cool period. Whether this is going to continue we'll have to wait and see. If it continues it will leave the AGW people in ruins but then they'll probably jump ship to AGC instead.

Anyway we're all living in interesting times.

For sunny Sheffield coldest year since 1979.

[osmposm]

Its 9 weeks since the start of the year and we still haven't recorded a CET daily mean of 7.0 or greater. Its a pretty modest value, nothing difficult about it to achieve.

The last time we achieved was the 10th December, 12 weeks ago.

Its 100 days since we achieved a double digit CET mean, that was on the 24th November....

Interesting to compare progress this winter with those figures from last. We haven't had a 7.0+ CET mean day since the 18th November, and a double-digit one since the 5th November!

Remains to be seen how long they'll last unbreached - I wouldn't think the 7.0+ one will last beyond next week, perhaps even this weekend.

Edited January 4, 2011 by osmposm

[Stu_London]

Well at the moment it tells us we're in a cool period. Whether this is going to continue we'll have to wait and see. If it continues it will leave the AGW people in ruins but then they'll probably jump ship to AGC instead.

Anyway we're all living in interesting times.

For sunny Sheffield coldest year since 1979.

It's only cool in our part of the world. Globally we are likely to be the 3rd warmest year ever according to HAD_Cru, although December figures are not available yet.

Norway and Sweden have broken or have come close to breaking cold records for December and 2010 as a whole, so it might be that this area (and us) has been cold whereas others have had strong warmth.

2011 will be more interesting globally as we start with a fairly strong La Nina, a negative PDO and cold embedded over large parts of the continental Northern Hemisphere.

Incidentally, one of the directors of the HAD-Cru project is on record as saying that his global warming theories are bust if the record for the warmest year is not broken at least every 15 years and that he would also expect at least half of the years in the 2011 to 2020 period to be hotter than 1998. So not long to wait until the theory stands up or breaks.

[Beazle]

Incidentally, one of the directors of the HAD-Cru project is on record as saying that his global warming theories are bust if the record for the warmest year is not broken at least every 15 years and that he would also expect at least half of the years in the 2011 to 2020 period to be hotter than 1998. So not long to wait until the theory stands up or breaks.

Of course the theory will not stand up. Then the Left will move on to something else. Perhaps they may even take up the cause of a REAL environmental issue such as overpopulation.

[Beazle]

Manley CET (Eden)= 8.91

Edited January 10, 2011 by Beazle

[Isolated Frost]

Of course the theory will not stand up. Then the Left will move on to something else. Perhaps they may even take up the cause of a REAL environmental issue such as overpopulation.

Rightest you I guess (pardon the pun).

Well, 2010 was the 2nd warmest ever, 2011 probably won't be with the current factors, but I'm sure we will get at least another Hottest year globally in the next 10 years, maybe a few.

One cold year in a TINY part of the globe doesn't mean Global Cooling, look at the wider picture.