Annual Cet - 2010

[summer blizzard]

i can understand why you are worried that we might get a wet summer, but the last 2 wet summers produced 2 cold winters , but 2007 which was the wettest didnt. i know its not the same, but still. we had 3 dry springs 2007, 08 and 09, maybe 2010 with pot look we may get away with it. like i said, summer 2007, gave us a very mild winter, 08/2009 and 2009/10 gave us a cold winter.

But if the theory is right, dry springs equalling to a wet summer, i would be sincerely worried as IMO this spring has been way dryer than that of 2007 and look what happened.

But looking at the charts for later FI form gfs and ecm for a example, the atlantic is starting to pick up a little more and the blocking is declining more and more. Look at ecm 216, then the 240 charts....

i dont know if that is good sign or a good summer, but i think it is very early.

Not quite sure where you get your figures from?

March and May 2007 were wetter than average i believe.

March and April 2008 were wetther than average.

Spring 2009 as a whole was wetter than average.

I could be wrong, but recently we have had some pretty wet springs over all, i am pretty sure that May 2007 recorded over 100mm of rainfall.

[snowlover2009]

Not quite sure where you get your figures from?

March and May 2007 were wetter than average i believe.

March and April 2008 were wetther than average.

Spring 2009 as a whole was wetter than average.

I could be wrong, but recently we have had some pretty wet springs over all, i am pretty sure that May 2007 recorded over 100mm of rainfall.

I don't have proper statistics. but imo even if it is above average rain it doesnt stop you from thinking that it felt dryer than average. say for instance last april was very wet and wetter than average, just because it is wetter than average doesnt mean it rained constantly everyday. if i recorded 80mm of rain in amonth, people might think it was wet most days, but infact most of the rain could have come from one days worth of rain. that is what i defined the last 3 springs as dry. it is easy to see how dry it is when you count how many days of rain you had. last april i had about 6 days of rain which on the whole is really dry, but yes i could still have above average rainfall.

basically im talking about how many days were dry and on the whole many days of the last 3 springs particularly Aprils have been really dry.

Edited May 23, 2010 by snowlover2009

[Optimus Prime]

It most definitely hasn't been dry lately. Summer 2009 was wet, November was very wet and so was February. April was dry but nothing too extreme.

I remember back in April 2007 we had people giving the same arguments how we'll end up with no water come summer...yeah right, nature eventually evens itself out.

[snowlover2009]

It most definitely hasn't been dry lately. Summer 2009 was wet, November was very wet and so was February. April was dry but nothing too extreme.

I remember back in April 2007 we had people giving the same arguments how we'll end up with no water come summer...yeah right, nature eventually evens itself out.

april this year was very very dry. some parts had less than 5mm i think and someone on TWO from w.yorkshire has had 2.5mm of rain this month. what do people need to be proved wrong. it has hardly being wet. no persistant rain for weeks.

im talking about spring in particular anyway, no november and last summer.

[Optimus Prime]

You would have thought it hasn't rained for years going by some of the comments. I don't suppose anyone remembers November 2009 and February 2010? Lots of water below the surface

[Stu_London]

You would also think this thread was about rainfall totals reading some of the comments.

Plenty of other threads for that

[Stu_London]

Jun09-May09 - 9.58C

[kold weather]

May came in below the 71-00, so its looking increasingly probable we will end up below the 71-00 yearly average, and the 10.00C average looks very hard to breach unless we have a season come in well above average.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Still following 1803 surprisingly closely. Apart from February which was 0.6C higher, every other month so far this year has been within 0.4C. 1803 had June of 13.7C, wonder if this will be the month to break the link?

[Weather-history]

Keep an eye on the CET minima, the last 6 months were all at or below average, the last above average CET minimum month was November. So the 12 month period June 2009-May 2010 could well be the coolest 12 month period for the CET minimum for awhile.

[noggin]

Lovely little summary here http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html .

So far this year we have had 3 months below "normal" CET and 2 months above:

January...-2.4

February..-1.0

March.....+0.5

April.....+0.9

May.......-0.5

The comparison for the anomalies is with the period 1961-1990. I am very interested in whether or not, come next year, the comparison will be with 1971-2000. At the moment, the CET is not romping away, indeed, this year, the colders outweigh the hotters, these totalling 3.9 colder and 1.4 hotter. So if, overall, there is a bit of a cooling scenario going on, then surely if, next year, the comparison is with 1971-2000 and the Cet continues in it's current scenario, we will have way more minus months, given that the 80s and 90 were hotties.

Is it cooling? Is it just not heating up as fast as it was? Or will it all come out in the wash, what with the vagaries of nature?

It seems to be quite topsy turvey when I recall, say, how cold the first half of May was and the how warm the second half got. On a tiny scale, the CET for June up to the 1st was -0.5, whilst now,up to the 2nd it is +0.5! Up and down like a yo-yo!

It's quite exciting watching it all unfold.

Edited June 4, 2010 by noggin

[AderynCoch]

The first five months of 2010 have averaged 5.98C.

To attain an annual average of 10C, the remaining seven months need to accrue an aggregate of 90.2C. To reach 9.50C we need a further 84.2C; for 9C the requirement is 78.2C

Go ahead and have fun with these temperature quotas.

For example:

June - 14.5

July - 15.5

August - 15.4

September - 13.4

October - 9.7

November - 6.3

December - 3.4

Anything even slightly less than this (which wouldn't be too outlandish) would yield a sub-9C year.

[Lettucing Gutted]

Unless the Mid-Atlantic Ridge returns summer 2010 could do great warming damage to our chances of recording a sub 10C year especially if summer 2010 averages 16C or higher with June 15.5C and both July and August 17.1C or higher.

[Optimus Prime]

I'd rather not take advice from someone who always predicts outlandish figures in the CET topics

[Optimus Prime]

Looks like June's been confirmed at 15.2c

First half of the year comes in at 7.5c which is 0.55c below the 71-000 average.

2009 8.5c

2008 8.9c

2007 9.7c

2006 8.2c

2005 8.9c

1996 7.2c

1955 6.6c

1986 6.5c

1963 6.2c

[SHOWERSFROMTHEWORDGO]

Well maybe it's good to remember occasionally that we're only one tiny corner of the planet, and other things are happening out there in the wider world.

Quote courtesy CNN news:

'Last month was the warmest June on record worldwide, according to a report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Warmer-than-average conditions were present across nearly all continents, including much of the United States, according to the organization's State of the Climate report, released Friday.

Although global sea surface temperatures ranked the fourth-warmest on record, the combination of land and sea anomalies pushed June 2010 past June 2005, previously the warmest June on record, the report said. June was also the fourth consecutive month in a row of record warmth worldwide.'

[eddie]

A sub 10C CET is almost certain now.

If August comes in at 16.3C (a high estimate from where we are now) then we need September to December to average 10.4C to reach 10C.

The 1971-2000 average September to December CET is 9.0C.

The warmest September to December CET was in 2006 (11.10C)

The second warmest was in 1898 (10.3C)

Only 2006 had a September to December period warm enough to take us from where we are now to > 10C.

If the rest of the year comes in near the rolling 10 year average then we should finish with a CET near 9.6C.

Sub 9C is also very unlikely. This would require a September to December CET < 7.3C. The last time this happened was 1952 (6.6C).

[Gavin P]

Yes, its very difficult to get a +10c year when you start off with a cold winter.

[Optimus Prime]

Well 2009 had the cold January (3.0c) and December (3.1c) and yet still managed well above 10.0c at 10.11c. Most of that heat came from April (10.0c) and November (8.7c)

10.22c is the highest it can get unless something extraordinary happens.

[summer blizzard]

Well 2009 had the cold January (3.0c) and December (3.1c) and yet still managed well above 10.0c at 10.11c. Most of that heat came from April (10.0c) and November (8.7c)

10.22c is the highest it can get unless something extraordinary happens.

Personally, i cannot see us getting above 10C, especially given that we are about to record an August at least 0.5C below average. Autumns have tented to be warmer than aaverage in recent years, however the likelyhood in my opinion is that this year will be the first below average year since 1996.

[Gavin P]

Given August has come in below average, joining January, February and May, I'm feeling confident in calling this and saying 2010 will be a sub 10c year and the coolest year since 1996.

The question now, given solar activity remains at low levels despite starting the new cycle and given we're on the cusp of a top 5 La Nina event, could 2011 be as cool or even cooler?

Edited September 2, 2010 by Gavin P

[Fozfoster]

The first five months of 2010 have averaged 5.98C.

To attain an annual average of 10C, the remaining seven months need to accrue an aggregate of 90.2C. To reach 9.50C we need a further 84.2C; for 9C the requirement is 78.2C

Go ahead and have fun with these temperature quotas.

For example:

June - 14.5

July - 15.5

August - 15.4

September - 13.4

October - 9.7

November - 6.3

December - 3.4

Anything even slightly less than this (which wouldn't be too outlandish) would yield a sub-9C year.

Hi ya A C. your August punt would have been a winner in the August Cet.

Edited September 2, 2010 by fozfoster

[AderynCoch]

Well spotted - a pity I didn't actually go for that figure.

June and July were warmer though, so it will take a very cold end to the year to attain sub-9C now.

Sub-9.5C is a realistic target.

Edited September 2, 2010 by AderynCoch

[Fozfoster]

Well spotted - a pity I didn't actually go for that figure. :lol:

June and July were warmer though, so it will take a very cold end to the year to attain sub-9C now.

Sub-9.5C is a realistic target.

I went for a big 10.4 so not good .

[noggin]

I am still quietly confident with my 8.49 guess made in February.

Here's hoping....