Annual Cet - 2010

[DAVID SNOW]

I went for a big 10.4 so not good .

You never know we could have a mild autumn,but as it stands i am happy with my 9.5 guess :lol:

[Fozfoster]

Does anyone know the average annual Cet. Cheers Ff

[Mark Bayley]

Does anyone know the average annual Cet. Cheers Ff

I think its 9.47c

(Just worked it out on the metoffice C.E.T)

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[Ladyofthestorm]

I think its 9.47c

(Just worked it out on the metoffice C.E.T)

http://hadobs.metoff..._info_mean.html

Given the cold start to the year and the not so great summer, and looks like autumn will be cooler to... Id go for 9.17C:whistling: Early snowball fight anyone?

[Fozfoster]

Given the cold start to the year and the not so great summer, and looks like autumn will be cooler to... Id go for 9.17C:whistling: Early snowball fight anyone?

I would! But with a 10.4cguess, i would miss.

[Stu_London]

I think its 9.47c

(Just worked it out on the metoffice C.E.T)

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

I think you may be mistaken (but am quite jet lagged so it may be me that is wrong!)

I make it 9.58C (01.09.09-31.08.10)

Even so, we are up against the mildest part of 2009 in the next 3 months. If a below average to average theme continues then 9.1-9.3 could be achieved sometime during the autumn -

[Mark Bayley]

I think you may be mistaken (but am quite jet lagged so it may be me that is wrong!)

I make it 9.58C (01.09.09-31.08.10)

Even so, we are up against the mildest part of 2009 in the next 3 months. If a below average to average theme continues then 9.1-9.3 could be achieved sometime during the autumn -

You could be. I just worked it out by the following

The highest annual mean CET ever recorded was 10.82 which is 1.35 higher than normal. To beat this record the anomaly must be higher than 4.31 for the remainder of the year

I just took 1.35 from 10.82. I could be wrong though if its not been updated or im reading it wrong (like i did in the September thread)

[Stu_London]

You could be. I just worked it out by the following

I just took 1.35 from 10.82. I could be wrong though if its not been updated or im reading it wrong (like i did in the September thread)

I've read the whole thread wrong (jet lag - told you). The average is indeed 9.47C (I think that is 1961-1990, as Hadley like to use that period as a benchmark)

I thought someone had asked what the current rolling CET is - which is 9.58C as per my answer.

Apologies

[Stu_London]

To add

CET 1961-1990 - 9.47C

CET 1971-2000 - 9.74C

CET 1980-2009 - 9.99C

[AderynCoch]

A cumulative total of 77.4C for the eight confirmed months so far this year. For the remaining four months that leaves:

• 42.6C required to reach 10C.
• 36.6C required to reach 9.5C.
• 30.6C required to reach 9C.

[Typhoon John]

A cumulative total of 77.4C for the eight confirmed months so far this year. For the remaining four months that leaves:

• 42.6C required to reach 10C.
• 36.6C required to reach 9.5C.
• 30.6C required to reach 9C.

Sub 9.5 looks well within reach then considering the longer term indications, i.e., high pressure dominance through Autumn/Winter 10/11.

[Stu_London]

Rolling CET

01/10/09-30/09/10 - 9.55C

I'd say 9.45C to 9.7C looks likeliest for the calendar year.

[Weather-history]

The CET annual minimum for 2010 could be interesting. I think the monthly minima of 2010 thus far have been lower overall than the maxima as respect to the average. If the last 3 months have average monthly minima then the annual minimum CET could be the lowest since 1996

1996 had an annual CET minimum of 5.53

[North-Easterly Blast]

The CET annual minimum for 2010 could be interesting. I think the monthly minima of 2010 thus far have been lower overall than the maxima as respect to the average. If the last 3 months have average monthly minima then the annual minimum CET could be the lowest since 1996

1996 had an annual CET minimum of 5.53

Judging now that this October looks set to be average or even slightly below then by this month's end it will be the first time since 1996/1997 that the rolling 12 monthly CET has fallen below the 1961-90 average of 9.49*C. October 2010 only needs a CET of 10.8 or less to achieve a rolling 12 month CET of less than 9.49*C.

A sub 10*C for 2010 is now nailed even if November, December or both were very mild, and the coolest year since at least 1996 is now nailed or almost nailed. Not long since many on this forum including myself stated and feared, right up to last year, that a yearly CET like 2001 or 2008 was the lowest that could be achieved in the so called christmas pudding.

[Weather-history]

The CET annual minimum for 2010 could be interesting. I think the monthly minima of 2010 thus far have been lower overall than the maxima as respect to the average. If the last 3 months have average monthly minima then the annual minimum CET could be the lowest since 1996

1996 had an annual CET minimum of 5.53

Interesting graph, note how this year is showing a nett negative for the CET minima

[beng]

Interesting graph, note how this year is showing a nett negative for the CET minima

Interesting. You can also clearly see the drop off in the CET temperatures since the PDO switched to the negative phase in 2007 (and the start of the warm up in the mid 1970s too for that matter). My thinking is that the negative PDO oceanic pattern helps buckle the jet stream making it more meriodonal (due to the large relatively warm pool in the north pacific), but also as a result of the ridge trough nature of the jet stream around the world, it also helps create conditions for troughing over W Europe. Just a hypothesis though - but if the pattern of lower CET values continues with the negative PDO then there might be something in it.

[Weather-history]

With October 2010 coming in as 10.3, a serious chance of a sub 9.5C year

[Stu_London]

With October 2010 coming in as 10.3, a serious chance of a sub 9.5C year

12.5 degrees to play with in November and December - about a 50/50 chance going on recent years.

CET 01/11/09 - 31/10/10 = 9.44C

[noggin]

With regard to anomalies, next year has the potential to be very interesting if the World Meteorological Organisation change the 30 year comparison period from 1961-1990 to 1971-2010.

[RedShift]

With regard to anomalies, next year has the potential to be very interesting if the World Meteorological Organisation change the 30 year comparison period from 1961-1990 to 1971-2010.

Which is a 40 year period.

[Gavin P]

It'll be the 81-10 average, but it probably won't happen until mid decade say around 2015.

[AderynCoch]

CET mean so far this year is now 10.15C.

Sub-10C is essentially nailed: if November and December were to both match the mildest on record (10.1C and 8.1C respectively), the CET would finish on 9.98C. If they were to both match the coldest on record (2.3C and -0.8C respectively), then the CET would finish on 8.58C. Sub-9C is highly unlikely, but there's a very good chance of getting sub-9.5C.

[Stu_London]

If november comes in significantly below the value of 2009 (8.7C) and despite the mild start, the trend seems to be heading that way, then it's possible that we could go close to 9C on the rolling CET in the first 2 weeks of December if conditions are cold.

A CET of 6C for November would put us on 9.22C at 30.11.10

If the first half of December averages 3C then we would be at 9.11C to 15.12.10. Thereafter it gets pretty hard to see the CET falling as last years very cold figures drop out of the dataset.

[kold weather]

Below average year is just about certain now given November should come in somewhere between 6-7C and even a record breakingly warm December wouldn't be enough to prevent a sub 9.75C year...and sub 9.5C is certainly looking very possible, would take December coming in around 6C or lower at the moment and below the 61-90 is also looking very do able.

Who'd have thought back in 2006 we'd be able to talk about going below the 61-90 average again...its been a long time since thats happened, 1996 was the last time when we got 9.20 (that's probably a tough ask to go that low this time unless we have an exceptional December like December 1995...

[Optimus Prime]

Makes you wonder how cold this year might had been 50 years ago.