Model Output Discussion - Sunday 20:35--->

[cyclonic happiness]

ECM 12z 216

AWWWW I was just about to post that!!! what a magnificent chart?!

[NorthantsSnow]

ECM 12z 216

Hmmm - the high looks a bit too far south for my liking on that chart. The GFS 12z is still by far the best run of the day.

[bluearmy]

i know its all FI, but anyone spot where the p/v has gone at T216 ??

[Geordiesnow]

I wouldn't now be surprised to see upgrades to this retrogression in the models over the next couple of days or so. We have a big -AO in the offing - the pattern is truly retrogressive. The high should go north

Yep it should aslong shortwaves does not stop it heading up North. I hope the GFS stick to it's guns and does not develop much in the way of shortwaves as this would make it easier to get proper cold weather i would of thought.

ecm is a decent enough run however, nice too see the cold trend is still there.

[grab my graupel]

A new thread coming in a few minutes, folks

[kold weather]

Takes a long way round but the 12z ECM blasts us at 216hrs!!

12z ECM much more realisitic in terms of its progression, I think the 12z UKMO would have looke dvery simiar had it run as far as the ECM does...12z GFS probably too progressive with the flow, as per normal!

Get ready for the northerly reload setting up at 240hrs as well BTW.

[nick sussex]

Can we ban all post 144hrs output and go back to the days of radio 4 weather for the week ahead! It's almost painful now! please no more, the ecm has made a major switch to perhaps the best output many of us have seen since we all became model anoraks!

[cyclonic happiness]

Can we ban all post 144hrs output and go back to the days of radio 4 weather for the week ahead! It's almost painful now! please no more, the ecm has made a major switch to perhaps the best output many of us have seen since we all became model anoraks!

haha!!! I know what you mean, if this lot all goes the way of the pyrus, I'll never look at a weather forecast again or chart or indeed Michael Fish!!!

[guitarnutter]

A new thread coming in a few minutes, folks

It definately feels like winter when we get through a model output discussion thread in 24 hours!

And with charts like this;

there is certainly a lot to discuss!

[patneve]

defo prefer GFS 12Z.....

[Snowmadsam]

so what does all this mean?

[Gowon]

168 just confirms it (the retrogression, arctic high, southerly undercut etc etc....)

Whatever ECM shows now will just be another possibility to the GFS, it will be interesting to see what the SW/meso LP will do wrt cold between 168 and 240Z, will it enhance the snow potential or slow things up ?

Yep, you did rightly say that this morning ECM's 00z output was not really plausible, good call.

[cyclonic happiness]

It definately feels like winter when we get through a model output discussion thread in 24 hours!

And with charts like this; there is certainly a lot to discuss!

that's the 0z matey?

[yamkin]

Hmmm - the high looks a bit too far south for my liking on that chart. The GFS 12z is still by far the best run of the day.

ECM is coming into line with UKMO & GFS

[NorthantsSnow]

ECM is coming into line with UKMO & GFS

Very true. And at this stage it's what's happening around T96-T144 which is important. The ECM backed down from its dire morning output, which was a crucial step.

[cooling climate]

I still think the ECM is making a little to much of the shortwave at t120 which effects the rest of

the run but a very good run never the less.

[londonsnow]

the ski industry in the alps will be loving the latest ecm

[I remember Atlantic 252]

240 chart not as good as gfs, even looks milder in the north, but well in FI but id say ecmwf the 'mildest' of the 3 in FI

[grab my graupel]

A new thread here folks - will close this one soon

[Frosty.]

5/10 Still only-

Concern around 120 on the retrogression of the high AFTER the shortwave has made it through

ECM 192 has epicness written all over it ( 1987 redux)

& those VERY VERY keen eyed will seen the cold front kink on the 216 chart just off the east coast bringing in -15c uppers

S

Thanks Steve,

Still very much in the balance then but nice to see the ECM back onboard after it's 00z wobble. If similar charts were to verify, we would be looking at parts of the uk grinding to a halt..hope the councils are well stocked up

[cyclonic happiness]

so what does all this mean?

It's all pointing to a very cold snap/spell is/maybe on the way, but the support is stacking up.

NEVER take it for granted though before it'sgets into the reliable time frame of about +120 hrs.

But even then it's been known to go badly wrong, we have all been bitten, but let's be quietly confident