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Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn722.png

out to 72 hours and very little change :)

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

So far no changes upto 78hrs, slightly stronger link to the Arctic high on this run but we shall see how this ends up...early days, the very key period is coming up over the next 10-15 mins, we will know then how it will end up in the end.

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Height rises don't seem as good in Russia. if the height rise isn't as strong will it allow free western flow of the cold air?

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Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

low to the NW of Iceland

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn842.png

Is this the same as before?

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

It all looks fine to me, the shortwave near Iceland is a touch stronger but thats not the problem, thats the one that will develop higher pressure to the north.

Also, wouldn't take much of a change to sneak the -5 isotherm into the SE as early as late Friday if the high ends up just a small bit further north but we shall see.

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

Looks like we might just get the link up we need without any shortwaves spoiling it but it's a bit too early to say.

As good as the 06Z run was, i'm not too bothard if we see a downgrade on the easterly, aslong we don't see any spoilers regarding shortwaves is all that matters.

edit: that low/shortwave to east of Greenland could spoil things for this run by the looks of it. See what happens though.

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

My Gut feeling is that this will be a halfway house between the ECM and the 06z. That troublesome low west of greenland is now 1000mb. Less shortwave action this run though I feel. Fingers crossed, it will still have snow for the SE by Tuesday though :)

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Looks like this will be a much slower evolution, the low is deeper so its going to take longer to eject to the SE and it may set-up a little further east.

This is the key area now, what we see in the next 5 mins will show what this run will do in the longer range.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Yes, changes in the shortwave action and it all seems to be shifted further north. I have a feeling that this run might go "the way of the pear" for cold/snow lovers, but we will see.

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Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1082.png

-5 into the south east earlier on this run

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin-Ireland...Rome, Italy
  • Location: Dublin-Ireland...Rome, Italy

a downgrade coud be on the way! cold pool pointing more towards central and southern europe, high pressure needs to shift NW (I think)

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Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

I could be wrong but it's not looking too good at the moment! , not often i start whinging :)

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Shortwaves joining forces to the N and the cold air out east- I think this run might end up with even less "snow potential" than this morning's ECMWF with the high sat over Britain and lows running around to the N, with the cold air staying in the continent.

Comparing "like with like" I'm pretty sure yesterday's 12Z had a quick sinking of an Arctic high giving a 36-hour ENE'ly for the north, a more prolonged easterly for the south, and then a prolonged cold snowy spell out in FI, so already some big differences also with yesterday's 12Z likely.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Yep the shortwave isn't moving the right way for the UK, instead it carries on northwards and thus the evolution is a little different.

Still its a different set-up as the 0z ECM which is a good thing and could still go well if the shortwave from the east develops as per the earlier runs.

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Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

from two

What may matter is the path the low takes. In the 6z, it went SE'wards and allowed the upper high to build northwards and eventually establish a blocking high way up there. In the 12z, it heads northwards instead, with only a small bit of energy going SE'wards. As a result, the Scandinavian region stays under higher heights and the Arctic high is kept at bay for longer.

A small but potentially significant development - I wonder if the eventual block will be anywhere near as far north as it was on the 6z?

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

Shortwaves joining forces to the N and the cold air out east- I think this run might end up with even less "snow potential" than this morning's ECMWF with the high sat over Britain and lows running around to the N, with the cold air staying in the continent.

Comparing "like with like" I'm pretty sure yesterday's 12Z had a quick sinking of an Arctic high giving a 36-hour ENE'ly for the north, a more prolonged easterly for the south, and then a prolonged cold snowy spell out in FI, so already some big differences also with yesterday's 12Z likely.

oh thats good news TWS lol.

oh well it was maybe asking to much after all we all were a little concerned about the shortwave.

good job they would not take mt bet today at willam hills then lol.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Out to 132...the high transfering towards Greenland, shortwave spreading westwards fro Russia.

So I think we are looking at eventually a set-up thats decent enough but its a slightly different route...esp with the shortwave and would mean a slower evolution but it would still happen though I'd think.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset

Out to 132...the high transfering towards Greenland, shortwave spreading westwards fro Russia.

So I think we are looking at eventually a set-up thats decent enough but its a slightly different route...esp with the shortwave and would mean a slower evolution but it would still happen though I'd think.

I bet by +162 you will all be saying it's a great run :) I think the high will build north enough in the end.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

A very strange run so far with the shortwave moving ne and filling, because of this no major trigger to bring the cold westwards, the upstream pattern still looks okay although this might end up with the route to cold delayed. To be honest this isn't a backtrack to the ecm 00hrs as that still had a developed shortwave running se' wards. Still a very confused outlook past 120hrs.

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

As I keep saying, it's all variation on the same theme. It will be getting colder, much colder next week. It's whether its cold AND snowy is the question.

Not sure GFS has a handle on the shortwave action just yet with differences at relatively small timeframes between runs.

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

pressure over Greenland is now building as the pesky short wave moves on. How good are the models at handling these shortwaves? I think the rest of the run can be classed as FI now! Whether we will have an Easterly on Tuesday with snow showers is not going to be nailed on until Sat the way the models are handling things. Lot of nailbiting in the days ahead I feel!

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