Model Output Discussion

[Snowaddict]

In relation to the 12Z ECMWF Guidance & the 850mb temperatures:

T+168: -10's filtering into the East & Northeast:

T+192: -10'S & - 15'S across the British Isles:

T+216 Onwards: Cold pool remains across the British Isles & As the low sinks south - look at those -20's just to the East across the North Sea:

[winterof79]

hi winterof79,

did he mention the word nithering by any chance

I agree with you, after an almost frostless and snowless season so far, the models are showing true potential for something special and an omega block is now highly likely although we still don't know for sure how this will impact on the uk..fingers crossed

Yes, no matter which way things pan out the synoptics we are seeing are more akin to the good old 70s and 80s.Lets not get too carried away with wether it will be a let down or not.Many on here should feel fortunate to see this modelled at this juncture of EARLY winter.With a little bit of mother natures luck we may just get luky my friend Heres to some calm frosty mornings and nights,then look east for the swirling white fine snow that used to preceed........well thats enough .......for now.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Not bad ECM Ensembles tonight

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png

Also the 850's for 12z ECM at +168 -5 across the south , -10 across Scotland.

Edit ... You beat me to it Snow Addict .

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

In relation to the 12Z ECMWF Guidance & the 850mb temperatures:

T+168: -10's filtering into the East & Northeast:

T+192: -10'S & - 15'S across the British Isles:

T+216 Onwards: Cold pool remains across the British Isles & As the low sinks south - look at those -20's just to the East across the North Sea:

Excellent charts SA.Looks like a bitter NE wind for the majority.Id suggest sub zero maxima in the SE

as time goes by,thats 510DAM air into the SE and thats bloody freezing.

[Snowmad79]

I'm a bit nervous about asking this because as far as teleconnections are concerned im a total newbie but i'll fire off a question anway.

Friction Torque

Mountain Torque

If you look at the charts above, The global friction torques are showing a tendancy to go negative, if im not mistaken, negative moutain torques then usually follow suit as is shown in the Mountain Torque chart.

When this happens Atmospheric Angular Momentum apparently displays a negative tendancy which is also showing signs of doing just that on the AAM tendancy charts so when the sequences above fall into place westerly wind anomiles are removed from the atmosphere and thus Westerly momentum is removed.

Now if this supports a colapsing pacific jet stream and a trough into the united states that is more orientated to the west side of the stats like what has been recently shown on the models, then what do you think the chances are that this current block senerio will be locked in for longer than one might expect especially with a weakend jet coming across the atlantic and the AAM loosing westerly momentum so to speak ?

Or if the block does give way what do you think the chances of a rebuild later are on as the things descibed above take effect ?.

I know theres a lot more to it than what ive said above and its probably way to early to ask these things but I just had too. Oh and sorry if this has gone over your heads guys !

Ps. for the sake of this being the model thread I just wanna take my hat off to the GFS, its ensembles and the GFS hieght anomily charts that were hinting at the current possible block senario 2 weekends ago.

[snowmadchrisuk]

I'm a bit nervous about asking this because as far as teleconnections are concerned im a total newbie but i'll fire off a question anway.

Friction Torque

Mountain Torque

If you look at the charts above, The global friction torques are showing a tendancy to go negative, if im not mistaken, negative moutain torques then usually follow suit as is shown in the Mountain Torque chart.

When this happens Atmospheric Angular Momentum apparently displays a negative tendancy which is also showing signs of doing just that on the AAM tendancy charts so when the sequences above fall into place westerly wind anomiles are removed from the atmosphere and thus Westerly momentum is removed.

Now if this supports a colapsing pacific jet stream and a trough into the united states that is more orientated to the west side of the stats like what has been recently shown on the models, then what do you think the chances are that this current block senerio will be locked in for longer than one might expect especially with a weakend jet coming across the atlantic and the AAM loosing westerly momentum so to speak ?

Or if the block does give way what do you think the chances of a rebuild later are on as the things descibed above take effect ?.

I know theres a lot more to it than what ive said above and its probably way to early to ask these things but I just had too. Oh and sorry if this has gone over your heads guys !

Ps. for the sake of this being the model thread I just wanna take my hat off to the GFS, its ensembles and the GFS hieght anomily charts that were hinting at the current possible block senario 2 weekends ago.

GP will have to answer that , but for a newbie that is quite a well thought out post , well done.

[johnholmes]

Slightly odd post there considering the real cold has only very recently come into a lower resolution! Things looking very good at the moment, just need the gfs to come on board with the other models, the parallel and the ensembles this evening! Also interesting to note how some people suddenly side with the GFS just because it is the only model not showing cold, if it was like yesterday's run then many people would be posting to say that the operational was only a cold outlier!

not odd at all consideing who posted it-you will pick up the Pits' refusal to be anything but negative on 95% of occasions about just about everything.

sorry off topic and sorry Pit but it had to be said

[David-kig]

very good charts just hoping this spell will be prolonged

[The Eagle]

In relation to the 12Z ECMWF Guidance & the 850mb temperatures:

T+168: -10's filtering into the East & Northeast:

T+192: -10'S & - 15'S across the British Isles:

T+216 Onwards: Cold pool remains across the British Isles & As the low sinks south - look at those -20's just to the East across the North Sea:

Your wrong there. Check the key again to the charts. Your out by 5C on every count. (Add 5C I mean to say)

[Optimus Prime]

Looks as if the real cold has been nudged away in the latest GFS run? We're still a long way out from the more mobile cold but it has to be said things are slowly moving towards something a bit more plausible.

[chionomaniac]

In relation to the 12Z ECMWF Guidance & the 850mb temperatures:

Hi SA,

I hope you are well - good to see you posting again.

Those 850's look a bit ambiguous regarding the temperatures. To me it looks that the 0ºC isotherm is set at the junction between the orange and yellow, the -5ºC isotherm starts at the first blue and so on. In that case, is it possible that everything is 5ºc higher than you suggest or is the scale wonky?

c

[johnholmes]

I would agree ch

[Paul]

New model thread open here:

As is a brand new topic - 'my model summary':

Locking this one now.