Model Output Discussion

[cooling climate]

UKMO at t96 is a peach.

[Nick L]

Looks like there might be a problem with the UKMO past T72. Blank charts on Wetterzentrale.

That's snow I think

The ECM will be out before the UKMO at this rate!

[Neilsouth]

UKMO at t96 is a peach.

yeh

[Southender]

What the hell has happened in the Atlantic?!

[kold weather]

now out to 96hrs on the UKMO, to be honest all the models have a similar evolution upto this point, its beyond that point where gthe vital difference will occur. Hopefully the 12z UKMO shows a good chart. Upper high looks like its progressing northwards well upto 96hrs.

[Nick L]

UKMO +120 isn't half bad either, at least it is still playing ball

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW120-21.GIF?08-19

[Neilsouth]

Yep 120hrs looking good thus far!

[NorthantsSnow]

UKMO out to +144 on Meteociel - WOW, looks like the pick of the models now with faster retrogression and a bitter Ely kicking in.

[Cal]

12hrs UKMetO 144hrs

[SMU]

UKMO +120 isn't half bad either, at least it is still playing ball

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW120-21.GIF?08-19

I will take that on December the 8th.........

Cold building...

steve

[chionomaniac]

Happy with this

[Snowaddict]

UKMO Model is really proving itself to be by far the most consistent.

This has the potential to be the best cold incursion, synoptically speaking in 20+ YEARS.

FANTASTIC 12Z UKMO!!!!! <_<

[Nick L]

Looks pretty good to me as well at +144!

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW144-21.GIF?08-19

[D KARLSON]

i have never known the UKMO be late in all the 4 years ive been on here and yet what a time to be late very fishy indeed come on holmes spill the beans old chap!!!!!!!!!

[cyclonic happiness]

really good meto tonight shows retrogression from 120-144hrs, LOADS of potential!! <_<

[weather eater]

I wonder if there is any point in me trying to inject a touch of realism.

Apologies for those who love the ups and down s of each run.

But IF you really want to see what the GFS model is actually trying to do at long time scales STOP comparing run to run.

It does NOT work and I'm not repeating what I've said over the past 5 years as to why-please trust me I do know what I'm talking about.

At closer time scales, and the closer the more effective by all means follow and compare run to run, but beyond, and its a varying time scale depending on a all kinds of factors, say beyond T+144 as an average.

I'll put my thoughts, for or against what happens after this weekend into the blog this evening once I'm able to use the NW versions of GFS and ECMWF along with UK Met for the shorter time scales.

There not listening John you might as well go and beat your head against a wall, ever run is greeted as the be all and end all, and every one is the herald of a new trend. That would be ok if it was newbie’s or those not good at reading the models; however some of the worst offenders are long term regular posting members.

On the model front not much wrong with the UKMO, really quite nice actually.

[snowray]

quite possible although I would tend to favour a problem somewhere down the line of getting from the Exter Ops room out on to the net?

Ah right.

I was thinking more along the lines of something in the 12z ECM (which they get to see before we do of course)that just might have caused a few nervous twitches. But its coming out now and the high is slightly further North and better positioned at T96. <_<

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

i have never known the UKMO be late in all the 4 years ive been on here and yet what a time to be late very fishy indeed come on holmes spill the beans old chap!!!!!!!!!

Its full of beans!! Great blocking and an easterly

[cooling climate]

Very good UKMO t 120. Big difference t96 -120 between the UKMO and the GFS.

Much better heights on the UKMO.

I see t144 is out and it is a cracking run. I would gladly take it to the bank.

As I said in a post earlier the GFS operational probably overdosing on the shortwaves etc

which as we know it can be prone to do.

[Frosty.]

i have never known the UKMO be late in all the 4 years ive been on here and yet what a time to be late very fishy indeed come on holmes spill the beans old chap!!!!!!!!!

The met office update today was a good hour late as well, very promising ukmo 12z for coldies..all we need now is an upgrade from the ecm 12z <_<

[NorthantsSnow]

You know, this is quite a unique position to be in. I can't remember many times where the UKMO has been more bullish about a potential cold spell than the GFS/ECM.

[cold snap]

Its full of beans!! Great blocking and an easterly

WOW very very good UKMO.

The only change ive seen so far in two days is a delay on arrival.which has only put us back into a unreliable timeframe this however would be looking for something to moan at.

All in all delighted

[bluearmy]

528's into the south east on mondays UKMO. the ecm 12z has upgraded on the 00z on the past two days. lets hope for the hat trick.

[kold weather]

The UKMO is indeed a cracking run, probably a better run then the 12z GFS upto 144hrs. There are big differences in the evolution of the shortwave but they both end up in a similar BUT both models do similar stuff with the core high, its just the outer issues that cause the differences.

The 12z UKMO is very similar to quite a few of the GFS ensembles runs.

[Frosty.]

You know, this is quite a unique position to be in. I can't remember many times where the UKMO has been more bullish about a potential cold spell than the GFS/ECM.

The main problem with the ukmo is it's poor verification between T+120 & 144 hours. To sum today's runs up so far, still on track but with more wobbles than yesterday and the ecm tonight will be crucial, not so much the 18z though.