Model Output Discussion - Tuesday 20:25 -->

[yamkin]

There will be a state of emergency called in the North East if the ECM is true and comes off with probably 3 to 4 feet of lying snow before even drifts are taken into account

Not so good for us down here but Tyne and Wear and Durham and North Yorkshire will be cut off if this comes off :o

Welcome to netweather. A trend to colder conditions by GFS started about two weeks ago. It is important to see the UKMO and ECM models follow suit. Slightly off topic, if London get's a few cm's of snow, there is chaos :o Sit back and enjoy the model watching.

[SMU]

Im back- off the floor-

My opinion of the ECM is its wrong at 72/96 & 120- but co incidentally picks up the GFS shortwave at 168 & therefor arrives at a similar solution-

What interests me APART from all the stuff going on in the mid term is the backgroun signal for a large low pressure to elongate & head towards Portugal-

IF IF IF this gets anywhere close under the block around the meridian then the UKL will get hit hard from the Easterlies on the northern flank....

S

OK JMA 192 Chart-

( Run better than the ECM as well)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1921.gif

Notice the southern flank energy to the SW heading towards portugal- that will reload the easterly.....

S

[John Snow]

Welcome to netweather. A trend to colder conditions by GFS started about two weeks ago. It is important to see the UKMO and ECM models follow suit. Slightly off topic, if London get's a few cm's of snow, there is chaos :o Sit back and enjoy the model watching.

Thanks, long time lurker but the excitement finally got the better of me lol

[Andy_]

another day of stunning model output today, i'm starting to allow myself to get excited by the amount of support and sheer ferosity of some of these charts showing up. the +192 - +240 period on the ECM is simply amazing, and would definitly give a severe weather event for the UK.

the gfs parrellel also has cold air reaching us by +72, and lasting till the end of the run - which could lead to a major freeze up.

gfs is also impressive with massive snow potential for the bulk of the UK around the 16th onwards

http://charts.netwea...ctypeuktopo.png

http://charts.netwea...ctypeuktopo.png

significantly the gfs has had the cold spell around this period for ages now, and shows major consistency in its run - and in the parralel. think it will be pretty certain what the outcome will be by this weekend people as in the fine details, then its game on people its pretty much game on imo now, i've never seen so much support - i am only 16 tho so prove me wrong ha

Edited December 9, 2009 by Andy Sabb

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Question,

Where is Conor?

second question,

Is the Telford snow shield operational?

Ahem, well now the dust has settled on the ecm operational we wait for the ensembles.Im interested in Steve's

comments that the early stages are wrong,not sure why that would be the case.It seems to me a bit of patience may

well provide more cheer longer term.I can see no end to the cold at 240h ecm,the jet is nearly in North

Africa and pressure is very low over S and C Europe.

Ecm ensembles hopefully will firm up a bit tonight and less milder members would be nice to see.

[Nick F]

I am a little sceptial about these lows too. A similar thing happened in February this year where south eastern & eastern coastal counties were tied into the mild sector with just disappointing rain and always marginal. I realise the depth of cold here could well be different but with the North Sea still so warm, it would have to be 'proper' cold to deliver on the coast. Will reserve judgement to the nearer timeframe! Any downgrades to the depth of cold will not be a good thing though - IMBY anyhow.

You have to bear in mind the direction the low is coming from on the models for next week. Back in early Feb's cold spell, there was a ridge over Scandi and a low moving in from the SW - which brought cold pool of air in from the east but eventually drew less cold air in from the ESE as the low moved in. However, for next week, the models show the low and upper cold moving down from the NE, which will prevent any mild air being drawn up from SE Europe.

[kold weather]

Yes Steve thats exactly what I'm looking at, some of the ensemble members showed something similar with a strong gradient ...by that point Europe would be snowbound and the flow would really be very severe, its the way the UK often gets maxes of -2/3/4 and even lower. Thats nearly Britains holy grial for cold...only the pure Arctic easterly can compete.

[Frosty.]

Nothing to getting worried about with ECM Its a Belter but a slow evolution and i for one would be ready to wait for that ,Better ending imo.

Agreement from the Big three tonight of a Cold snap,ECM not iclined to bring it in as fast as the other two

Unreal runs

As you rightly say, unreal runs and they are actually getting better the closer we get to the pattern change. The delay, if there is one, is fine because the initial cold shot is restricted to the southeast and a heavily watered down version of what follows behind that trough to the northeast, the potential shown by the gfs & ecm once we are in the bitter NE'ly flow is staggering and we could be locked into a very wintry spell for up to a week or more once the omega block is established, maybe staying wintry until the end of the year, I think RJS said something similar this morning.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Can i open a discussion about where exactly the winds are originating from on that ecm run?

To my eye they look to be coming from the Artic.

The 192h chart in particular.

[Bottesford]

A shiny new one here: