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Bottesford

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Posted
  • Location: Bromley, Kent
  • Location: Bromley, Kent

I like this run. That pesky low to the southwest runs out of imputus and merges with the low to the east.

Cold is is slowere again coming in and 850's chop and change a bit, but the overall synoptics look much better

regards

Jan

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Posted
  • Location: Northampton (90m ASL)
  • Location: Northampton (90m ASL)

Can't really see anything especially cold nor wintry on this run. Very marginal really...am I missing something?

No need to be a windup merchant. Round 1 does actually present ample snow opportunities for the SE. But we all know it's the reload where things really start to get interesting. Nothing marginal about T168:

http://209.197.11.95/c9s4a5k3/cds/gfsimages/gfs.20091209/18/168/h850t850eu.png?dopvhost=charts.netweather.tv&doppl=0f36092b44162cf6&dopsig=bde45d910493f399b92ab64ba88eb8f4

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level

At 168+ the atlantic is dead!!!! the 12z showed a load of shortwaves? how will this affect the evolution?

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

But it keeps getting delayed with each run. Within the reliable time frame it looks chilly with rain or sleet. All the cold is out past 150 hours.

I'm really struggling to see the excitement from this. Yes the synoptics are very good but the cold is still struggling to be dragged in, it's taking the long route around which means is gaining to much energy before it reaches us.

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Posted
  • Location: Tenby, Pembrokeshire, Wales 30m a.s.l.
  • Location: Tenby, Pembrokeshire, Wales 30m a.s.l.

The 'real' cold was never due to arrive before Thurs/Fri next week. The pattern has remained the same for several days now. Indeed, this run pushes things through 24hrs quicker!

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

Decent run and whilst this run shows consistent weather for us, there are quite a few changes in this run in other areas, most noticeably the small but rather deep low in the Atlantic has weakened alot, The Arctic/Siberian high is much more of a feature so these next few days are quite interesting, if rather nail biting.

the easterly for the latter part of the weekend could perhaps surprise some people as well, some decent cold upper air temps and with PPN, sleet/snow is possible. The amount of showery activity would however depend on how unstable the air is so even this is not nailed.

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Posted
  • Location: leeds
  • Location: leeds

But it keeps getting delayed with each run. Within the reliable time frame it looks chilly with rain or sleet. All the cold is out past 150 hours.

I'm really struggling to see the excitement from this. Yes the synoptics are very good but the cold is still struggling to be dragged in, it's taking the long route around which means is gaining to much energy before it reaches us.

the real cold and snow has always been around mid week and the atlantic is more dead so an upgrade i think i flicked back and forth on the past gfs which was 12z and wednesdays dam lines are in similar position with colder dam lines over scandi so an upgrade i think and look how cold and snow wednesday night is, with snow developing through wednesday itself.

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Posted
  • Location: Bromley, Kent
  • Location: Bromley, Kent

But it keeps getting delayed with each run. Within the reliable time frame it looks chilly with rain or sleet. All the cold is out past 150 hours.

I'm really struggling to see the excitement from this. Yes the synoptics are very good but the cold is still struggling to be dragged in, it's taking the long route around which means is gaining to much energy before it reaches us.

Yes I agree. The cold is just refusing to be pulled down quickly enough. Very frustrating really

regards

Jan

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Posted
  • Location: Northampton (90m ASL)
  • Location: Northampton (90m ASL)

But it keeps getting delayed with each run. Within the reliable time frame it looks chilly with rain or sleet. All the cold is out past 150 hours.

I'm really struggling to see the excitement from this. Yes the synoptics are very good but the cold is still struggling to be dragged in, it's taking the long route around which means is gaining to much energy before it reaches us.

I would refute that it keeps getting delayed. I remember previously 17th being the key date but as the runs progressed it's now looking more like the 16th. The inital easterly shot from Sunday was actually upgraded on this morning's runs but was always a separate event with the coldest air waiting in the wings so to speak. Those in the SE will see it as a nice bonus I would imagine.

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

No need to be a windup merchant. Round 1 does actually present ample snow opportunities for the SE. But we all know it's the reload where things really start to get interesting. Nothing marginal about T168:

http://209.197.11.95...92ab64ba88eb8f4

I dont think anyone 'suggest' that T168 is marginal, that chart isnt marginal.

Its the fact its T168. Dont people like JH always remind us not to spend all the time in FI ?

I cant see a single post in the last 50 talking about the next T96 period.

How about someone posting what we need to see next 36 hours ?

Edited by stewfox
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Our trigger low wants to park itself over Copenhagen, how ironic?

Regards,

Tom.

Well I would say these positive message from the 18z T 120 looks to be the FI point at the moment-

Im TOTALLY unconvinced of the evolution after that point-

If you compare the 12z - it looked clean & actually theres plenty of archive charts that look similar- however the 18z is really stretched & elongated- not clean at all-

so whilst it looks exciting I cant see the 18zeds resolution being accurate...

Its great & the clear message is full steam ahead-

awaiting the parallel update - I have seemed to enjoy that run more- but BIN the 18z op after 140 - especially with that low over the NE us-

S

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level

Blurrrggghh, I have ahorrible feeling the azores high is gonna turn up at the end of this run!

Good job i never take notice of anything i say.

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

If I am reading this 18z right, looks like a shot at Wintry Showers for the East and South East for Sunday with marginal wintriness for Monday, then briefly milder (although we wont think it is as it will still be raw) before the really interesting stuff comes from Wed/Thur onwards atm. Still way to far out to get excited, Saturdays charts and we should know our fate for the main course which will be at T96 By then

Paul S

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge (term time) and Bonn, Germany 170m (holidays)
  • Location: Cambridge (term time) and Bonn, Germany 170m (holidays)

It's coming, passed the point of no return, its a question now of how deep the snow is going to be as opposed to will it hit the UK or not

Some lucky place is going to get at least 30in of lying snow without doubt, wish it was down here

Are we including Canada in this?! :lol:

As we can see the sw has tracked more SW on the 18z; i.e. better for the UK with a more direct route.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png

A very long way out, but that's some nice eye candy... snowstorm setting up in the N Sea :D

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Its getting delayed thats true however the evolution is remaining constant so I wouldn't worry too much about it OP.

The 18z gets rid of the attempted attack from the SW on this run it seems, which given the GWO/MJO signals I think will not be the correct evolution but we shall see, still cold on this run it has to be said, for a NE airflow to get maxes of 0-1C at this time of year means a real potent flow.

Certainly reminds me of December 81 on the charts, granted its not quite as cold...

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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone
  • Location: Maidstone

It's coming, passed the point of no return, its a question now of how deep the snow is going to be as opposed to will it hit the UK or not

Some lucky place is going to get at least 30in of lying snow without doubt, wish it was down here

You don't say where you are it might help you know.

Also yes the cold is delayed but it is still too far out to say exactly how this will pan out but it is going to get colder that is a fact and this run is colder than the 06z at an earlier stage and i would like to beleive that the forcasters on here have a better handle on these things than me and others who have less knowledge do.

I don't like how long it takes to get going though there is still a nagging doubt because it looks too good to be true

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Posted
  • Location: West leeds, 115m asl
  • Location: West leeds, 115m asl

Over ramping going on here imo. Yes the charts look awesome, but the -10 850 air forecast to arrive on monday is now only forecast to be about -3. I agree with OP, the real cold stuff always appears at t+150ish only to reduce as it nears the reliable timeframe. I seem to remember exactly the same thing happening last year.

However, if the current pattern does occur, we will be in for something special (widespread snow, maxes of -3 to -6 away from the coasts/southwest, severe overnight frosts etc). I'm hoping + keeping everything crossed that it does happen this time round (we are long overdue such a spell of 'proper' non marginal snow!), but I think some caution is required.

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

Well I would say these positive message from the 18z T 120 looks to be the FI point at the moment-

Im TOTALLY unconvinced of the evolution after that point-

If you compare the 12z - it looked clean & actually theres plenty of archive charts that look similar- however the 18z is really stretched & elongated- not clean at all-

so whilst it looks exciting I cant see the 18zeds resolution being accurate...

Its great & the clear message is full steam ahead-

awaiting the parallel update - I have seemed to enjoy that run more- but BIN the 18z op after 140 - especially with that low over the NE us-

S

Nonetheless, either would bring some exceptional snow and cold to many parts of the UK. The basics up to +120 are still there, so yet another day has passed without a real downgrade, or even all that much putting off either. Hope tomorrow's charts are as good as today's, although I'm a bit unsure how they could be, today has been wonderful!

LS

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Posted
  • Location: Barnet, North London
  • Location: Barnet, North London

Fantastic output again, but I think the models will struggle with the evolution of this cold spell. One reason being the AO ensembles:

http://www.cpc.ncep....ex/ao.sprd2.gif

I've never seen them tank like that - way way off the bottom of the chart. I know it's only one element of the data suite, but I'm not sure that will be a factor the models can readily solve?

Amazing charts currently, whether they're right or not!

Steve M

Edited by smich
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