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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

If I am reading this 18z right, looks like a shot at Wintry Showers for the East and South East for Sunday with marginal wintriness for Monday, then briefly milder (although we wont think it is as it will still be raw) before the really interesting stuff comes from Wed/Thur onwards atm. Still way to far out to get excited, Saturdays charts and we should know our fate for the main course which will be at T96 By then

Paul S

Pretty much sums it up Paul.

The only thing I will say is during Tues/Wed the upper temps might be warmer but the surface temps might actually be a couple of degrees cooler due to losing the E,ly flow and picking up more of a N,ly flow.

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

I dont think anyone 'suggest' that T168 is marginal, that chart isnt marginal.

Its the fact its T168. Dont people like JH always remind us not to spend all the time in FI ?

I cant see a single post in the last 50 talking about the next T96 period.

How about someone posting what we need to see next 36 hours ?

:D Err.. a bit pointless no?? 36 hours ahead is 'nailed on', we know what will occur. T+96 you may have a point...

What we are drooling at +180 was being drooled at at +240, stragely enough about five days ago, so maybe it's not totally as crazy as you make out.

A lot of grouchy people here tonight, jeeez.

The models have been/still are absolutely breathtaking. Let's enjoy the moment I say. Who knows when this will occur again (hopefully next month).

Edited by s4lancia
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

As steve murr said the low over scan has only really one place to go .Fi for me is probably t-130 hrs.Also some of the peoples comments on snowfall ete and position of lows,ie moaning are at least tedious. :D

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Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfsnh-0-138.png?18

Never in my life have i seen that before , greenland - arctic high link up! look how far that goes. Incredible

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Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City

Its is marginal OP till we get the NE wind coming down once that LP comes down from Scandinavia, but once that comes down, we will lose all marginality I think.

Rest of the run should be very interesting I think!

Experience tells me that the UK usually ends up on the wrong side of these shortwaves as there is just too much westward momentum in the northern arm of the cut-off flow. It takes until T168 for the return flow off the Euro trough to reach our shores and by then the upstream pattern is already changing and the Greenland-block eroding.

We're not out of the woods yet, although south-east England may well be the luckiest if we do salvage something.

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Some very good charts again tonight, with the operational GFS being far better than yesterday, firstly with regard to the eassterly or Sunday, which may well give snow shwoers, and then brining in the cold far better than yesterday.

People are right to be Cautious,but things are very positive IMO.

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

I think we should all calm down and look at the charts more scientifically rather then from preference.

What is very likely to happen looking at the GFS run - A cold easterly setting in briefly from Sunday bringing with it some rather cold and damp conditions - Very little snow but sleet and rain/drizzle. Ending by Tuesday Temperatures ranging 5/6 by day dropping to 2/-1c by night.

After this a warmer sector within a COl develops as winds veer NE'ly. More sleet/wet snow showers and more damp drizzly weather. Chilly feeling cold

After this it potentially turns colder. But between the easterly and NE there's many options in there that could prevent that very cold air moving in. In fact by the time it gets here it would have warmed significantly. An easterly of the continent is better then a NE (which is basically a shorter route for the cold but picks up more warmth from the sea)

Edited by Optimus Prime
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

Over ramping going on here imo. Yes the charts look awesome, but the -10 850 air forecast to arrive on monday is now only forecast to be about -3.

Around -7C on Monday S of Scotland.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1202.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Certainly reminds me of December 81 on the charts, granted its not quite as cold...

post-24-12603983053934_thumb.gif - Yep getting there Darren

Also Dave (Teits) yes you could well be right with a slakened flow we may just be the right side of marginal (for once) LOL

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Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snowy Weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.

Yes Steve, sometimes we get these messy, flabby 18z runs, looks a bit wierd. That trigger low just hangs around between Denmark and Holland before eventually moving off east.

As you stated, can anyone come up with some classic archive charts of this sort of scenario where you get a short-wave/low moving down the N.Sea and clearing south-east of us and then ushering in Polar Continental air. I can think of Jan 1985/87, I'm sure there are others.

Regards,

Tom.

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http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfsp/run/gfsnh-0-156.png?18

Look at the parallel- A better angle of following cold air being squeezed harder- 12 + 168 on (P) is going to EPIC-

I can feel the modeltracker firing up....

S

The parallel has been very consistent with this, we are really in for a big (and early) reputation check of the model over the next few weeks.

I do hope that it is mainly accurate.

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Posted
  • Location: Upton, Wirral (44m ASL)
  • Location: Upton, Wirral (44m ASL)

........

How about someone posting what we need to see next 36 hours ?

That's a fair point. For me the most imoprtant thing about this run (and the last few before it) is that during the first 3 days i.e. out to T+72 it shows the establishment of the high lattitude block, forming over the UK, and then heading north and west to give us real (yellow) heights towards Greenland. For me this is the most exciting aspect that all the models have been pretty consistent with so far. As an aside I remember seeing vaguely similar synoptics sometime during the wet summer (june maybe) of 2008. Several experienced posters commented along the lines of "if only we could get that set-up in January or February". And here we stand with it in mid-December :winky:.

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

Nice parallel as usual

gfs-0-174.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

Because of the deep cold pooling coming across the north sea , are we likely to see polar type lows in the flow?

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

http://91.121.94.83/...nh-0-156.png?18

Look at the parallel- A better angle of following cold air being squeezed harder- 12 + 168 on (P) is going to EPIC-

I can feel the modeltracker firing up....

S

Fantastic Parallel Run Steve.. We have that secondary low at T+162 dragging in the air much more quickly..

It would be bitter with copious amounts of snow showers and longer outbreaks of snow.

Also, for the more reliable timeframe, -8's into Southern England which would still lead to VERY cold conditions for the time of year.

However, we are not there yet & so caution is advised because I think that now we are getting closer and closer this would be THE biggest letdown ever.

Fingers crossed everyone as many on here, myself included, treasure these synoptics.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level

the parallel is throwing lows from Scandi at Newfoundland!!! I have never seen that?

Are the charts going in reverse? :winky:

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Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .

Another outstanding run out of the way. It's true that there's a bit of slightly less cold air whilst the north-easterly takes hold for c.12 hrs, but all that will long be forgotten.

A really remarkable synoptic pattern. Does one get in trouble for mentioning years of old? Well, 1978/9 anyone? Let's see this actually happen of course, but still I think now comfortably the best synoptic model runs I've seen since joining NW.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

I do agree OP that a easterly off Europe will be colder then a NE but thats just about as cold as a NE airflow can get in December IMO, and besides things could go wrong your quite right but there is no point of worrying bout that until something actually occurs.

Anyway 18z is cold the whole way through at the surfacre with temps really struggling, but synoptics aren't all that impressive beyond 240hrs however...

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Posted
  • Location: south lanarkshire,scotland
  • Location: south lanarkshire,scotland

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfsp/run/gfsnh-0-156.png?18

Look at the parallel- A better angle of following cold air being squeezed harder- 12 + 168 on (P) is going to EPIC-

I can feel the modeltracker firing up....

S

Looking forward to the tracker,they were excellent.

Parallel run an absolute peach, just seems to have been showing remarkable consistancy this past week.

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

A Christmas morning blizzard for me on the 18Z.SOLD

The negativity from some on here appears to be based on past experience rather than

what the models are showing.

We are past the period of shortwave activity scuppering the Greenland block, the rest

will come next week.

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