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shuggee

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

UKMETO a belter as well out to 144Z, bringing the short wave with associated snow and cold over for a nice snowy period Wed night, thurs, fri.!

Fantastic charts and only the ECM and GFS ENS to go.

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Location: Hull

They said that for me in the past 3 setups :pardon:

If you get a tigher flow, then there's no doubt it'll be snow, but if the 12z output now actually happens, let me know your temps and dews on the night in question please :blush:

Lewis

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Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.

*Gulp* The 12z changes things yet again, high pressure seems a lot more stubborn on the 12z but a change for the better for snow lovers in the short-term as there now looks to be a chance of some decent snowfall for many Eastern areas and Central areas of England on Monday/Tuesday.

Edited by andy_leics22
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Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

UKMO at 72hrs (ie midday Sunday)

Cold air UW72-7.GIF?10-17

Precipitation UW72-594.GIF?10-17

BRRRR!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

What more could we ask for? The GFS is giving us run after run of wintry heaven but now we need the ecm back onboard after it's feeble attempt this morning..it needs to improve big time or the nagging doubts will continue.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds (Roundhay) 135m
  • Location: Leeds (Roundhay) 135m

UKMETO a belter as well out to 144Z, bringing the short wave with associated snow and cold over for a nice snowy period Wed night, thurs, fri.!

Fantastic charts and only the ECM and GFS ENS to go.

Doesn't look bad (ensemble mean)

post-6181-12604646227982_thumb.png

Edit, thats the control run, better change it laugh.gif

Edit again, won't let me use use full editor, so heres the link

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=6&code=21&mode=1

Edited by mark bayley
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Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Location: Hull

UKMO at 72hrs (ie midday Sunday)

Cold air UW72-7.GIF?10-17

Precipitation UW72-594.GIF?10-17

BRRRR!!!

That looks fantastic, some heavy precip there for you mate, should bring freezing level down, and hopefully it will turn to heavy snow.

Lewis

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Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

This GFS run has changed more in the earlier stages showing a stronger artic high link up and further east it looks more like January 2nd 1985 than even the 6z at T60.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn601.png

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn841.png

UKMO is very good indeed.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rukm1201.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.

I won't look past T180 because it's chopping and changing within T120 so anything past T180 surely must be ignored for the safety of everyone health :pardon:

Have to say though that the Parellel run at T180 is a BEAUT! I'm not even going to check the other 2 links because they are simply too far away at the moment.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

I couldn't even access the Net weather charts until I realised I wasn't selecting chart type. :pardon:

Back to the models and to be honest the only difference between the UKMO +144 and the GFS Parallel +144 is the SW is only slightly further E on the GFS P and deeper by 15mb. A really insignificant difference at this timeframe.

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Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.

2-5cm of lying snow by next Friday.

I would take that right now to be honest. But let's hope we can add a zero on to that...

180_24.gif

Edited by LeighShrimper
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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

Surprised no-one noticed the differences between the UKMO and the GFS at the short range, GFS is showing a much stronger and potent easterly than the UKMO so we should bear in mind before talking about the potential regarding snow.

UKMO is better in the long term, not sure what the upper air temps will be however but seeing as the flow is not too strong then i would not expect dead cold uppers.

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Posted
  • Location: Louth, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn days and foggy nights
  • Location: Louth, Lincolnshire

The initial easterly blast isnt great for us up here, but for anywhere south of the M62 corridor, even coastal areas should be ok as 850hPa temperatures are lower than -8C and dewpoints remain below freezing:

post-2418-12604622768238_thumb.pngpost-2418-12604622925868_thumb.png

Id expect some snow showers for East Anglia even out to the coast, but a wintry mix further North. The flow is quite slack too, so its difficult to say if they will get far inland.

I think that's right, though I'd perhaps drop the line a little further south to say, The Wash southwards due to the impacts of a warm Humber Estuary. South of there, you'd probably be OK even in coastal areas (provided you weren't right on the coast itself) with favourable upper air temps and dew points, but north of the line Lewis is right, it certainly looks the wrong side of marginal north of the Humber unless you're at altitude (North York Moors might do well). Experience suggests it will be touch and go for me too, and that probably means sleet.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

I couldn't even access the Net weather charts until I realised I wasn't selecting chart type. :D

Back to the models and to be honest the only difference between the UKMO +144 and the GFS Parallel +144 is the SW is only slightly further E on the GFS P and deeper by 15mb. A really insignificant difference at this timeframe.

Are you looking at the same charts as I am? The UKMO has the shortwave covering East Anglia while the GFS has the shortwave way out over the other end of the North Sea. That would make a big difference in the longer term with much greater chance of the cold Siberian air making it across from the northeast.

UKMO does show less of an easterly on Monday/Tuesday- it wouldn't make much difference to the southeast but further north it might mean cloudy and damp rather than a mix of sunshine and wintry showers.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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Posted
  • Location: East Anglia
  • Location: East Anglia

12z GFS maybe not as good as some we have seen, but pretty good for all that, I don’t think the models have a true grasp of events past the 96 - 120hr mark, so some more variations to come I think. The parallel is another belter, no two ways about it, if its consistency means anything to how it actually verifies, then the others will fall into line with it.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

TWS, The eye is talking about the Paralell GFS not the main op run, which does look fairly similar to the UKMO, though the shortwave is even more developed on the GFS Paralell run down to 990mbs, huge difference from its op run.

I'm going to trawl through the ensembles and see what they show.

As you say, the easterly still looks decent enough for the SE, temps not as cold that is true but its not a bad shot.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Apologies, I didn't see the "parallel" bit in his post! Interesting how the two models that have been the most "gung-ho" about this potential Siberian north-easterly- UKMO & GFS parallel- have been the most consistent. Consistently right or consistently wrong though? It will be a good test of the reliability of the GFS parallel.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

A fair few ensembles breaking this pattern down by the 20-22nd of December...still a lot of good runs in the ensembles, a few that do look very borderline however as well it has to be said...as well as a few very snowy ensembles as well!

As others have said we can't really go past 96hrs without any real confidence at the moment and I still think that upper high will be very stubborn and will stay the course probably a good 2 weeks which wil lbring us right upto the xmas period IMO, not buying the idea that it weakens as rapidly as a few of the models are trying to do today.

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Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

The latest forecast from Michael Fish is now online, watch it here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=michaelfish;sess=

Good forecast!

Shame about the maps not showing :D:(

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Posted
  • Location: East Anglia
  • Location: East Anglia

TWS, The eye is talking about the Paralell GFS not the main op run, which does look fairly similar to the UKMO, though the shortwave is even more developed on the GFS Paralell run down to 990mbs, huge difference from its op run.

I'm going to trawl through the ensembles and see what they show.

As you say, the easterly still looks decent enough for the SE, temps not as cold that is true but its not a bad shot.

The parallel tracks that shortwave in from further north and east, but thereafter it follows a similar track, the parallel has it as a much deeper feature than the UKMO and I suspect pulls in some much colder air.

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Posted
  • Location: Teesdale,Co Durham. 360m asl
  • Location: Teesdale,Co Durham. 360m asl

12z GFS maybe not as good as some we have seen, but pretty good for all that, I don’t think the models have a true grasp of events past the 96 - 120hr mark, so some more variations to come I think. The parallel is another belter, no two ways about it, if its consistency means anything to how it actually verifies, then the others will fall into line with it.

Nearly all of 12 GFS runs are better.

Here's a few.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-2-1-162.png?12

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-4-1-162.png?12

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-5-1-162.png?12

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-8-1-162.png?12 One for the Scots

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-9-1-162.png?12

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-10-1-162.png?12

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-11-1-162.png?12

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-12-1-162.png?12

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-13-1-162.png?12

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-15-1-162.png?12

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-16-1-162.png?12[[:DD]]

Mark

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

One thing I'm noticing with the ensembles is they aren't putting quite so much energy into the southern jet and instead are putting more back into the northern arm of the jet again that loops round, the models really can't decide what to do in that respect.

Also, as GP has said before, any model that is showing a strong Azores high can automatically be disposed off as that goes completely against all the teleconnections that we have at the moment!

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Number 4 looks quite tasty from my eastern-tinted spectacles...

Unless the ECMWF backs up the GFS I'll be tempted to suggest that the GFS 12Z operational is probably undercooking that shortwave (unusually so for GFS!).

Edit: I will also add that the FI on the GFS 12Z looks distinctly implausible with all those floppy lows and highs hanging around.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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