Model Output Discussion

[grab my graupel]

A new Model Output Discussion thread

Thanks to all of you who have done your best to stay on topic

Please continue :lol:

[andy_leics22]

Massive massive upgrade

The shortwave and accompanying snowfall is pretty much nailed on now

Monday isn't even nailed on yet!

Anything past T96 is subject to quite substantial change IMO. Be very cautious because this will come down to a matter of 24 hours before we really know where the precip will be and where any low pressures will end up.

[J10]

ECM T+216, looks promising to say the least.

[That GFS]

That's a belter for ne,east,se england

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

Though again it's all fi , will probably downgrade as from monday!

[cyclonic happiness]

This ECM run is an absolute stonker!!!

Just about everything that could have upgraded has....just look Svalbaad is sending us a huge christams present in the form of a polar(esque) low!!!

This must be the ECM's apology for making us all cry yesterday

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=0

[SMU]

This ECM run is an absolute stonker!!!

Just about everything that could have upgraded has....just look Svalbaad is sending us a huge christams present in the form of a polar(esque) low!!!

This must be the ECM's apology for making us all cry yesterday

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=0

http://www.meteociel...M1-216.GIF?11-0

LOL LOL & LOL_

That has NEVER hapeened....... EVER-

that cant happen....

UK-- CLOSED-- right on the days of the busiest Xmas shopping period-

S

[Alex95]

ECM +240 shows that large high pressure from the Arctic sitting with it's centre right over the Midlands. I wonder whether it would still be very cold, or whether milder air, warm sectors etc would be mixed in?

[butler_son]

Ok last post for a while, but... the ECM has gone absolutely CRAZY.

Judging by this:

I'd have a guess and say that perhaps the ECM is modelling the Earth's rotation on its axis being reversed overnight!

[kold weather]

My word that is a monster of a 216hrs chart, thicknesses even in the SE still down close to 520 and there'd be no end of shortwave and trough features in that sort of flow...the NW/W would be utterly hammered by that chart but even eastern areas would probably get a lot of snow from the troughs/fronts that would be coming round...

Quite a stunning run and something for everyone!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

216 and 240 we are wrong side of low, gotta be rain surely, but all FI and exciting snow potential

[andy_leics22]

ECM +240 shows that large high pressure from the Arctic sitting with it's centre right over the Midlands. I wonder whether it would still be very cold, or whether milder air, warm sectors etc would be mixed in?

OK I said my other post was the last post for a while but I need to post this...

The ECM has updated mate, this is now what T240 shows...

Ridiculous? Much?

Judging by this:

I'd have a guess and say that perhaps the ECM is modelling the Earth's rotation on its axis being reversed overnight!

Arrghh you beat me to it by about 30 seconds

[SMU]

216 and 240 we are wrong side of low, gotta be rain surely, but all FI and exciting snow potential

No- this is wrong-

The thicknesses are around 520 DAM- PLUS the south of england will have entrenched continental air & PROBABLE snow cover-SNOW all the way- IF the ECm varified 0-240

S

[John Snow]

This has to be a rogue chart surely ?

Britain would be set for its record ever snowfalls if 144-240 came off

The pub run can take things to extremes but this makes the pub run seem sane

Truily incredible

[Jason H]

It's all purely FI, but what charts! All snow by t144 as well if verified.

All that's settled is that it's getting colder and colder as next week continues. Snow distributions and amounts if any to be decided much nearer the event!

[kold weather]

216 and 240 we are wrong side of low, gotta be rain surely, but all FI and exciting snow potential

There isn't a wrong side of the low fr that 216hrs chart, even on the southern side thicknesses are arouind 520...no doubts in my mind about snowfall...

240hrs sees probably the end of the spell in sight as I'd imagine as the block starts to relocate into a western based -ve NAO and low pressure takes over though still a chance that could evolve well if the other low gets sling-shot into Europe.

[Snowaddict]

This ECMWF surely, just surely cannot be correct - although I really do hope that it is!

It's exceptionally wintry from start to finish...

850's down to -4 to -6 by T+120... Even at T+72 - T+96 the pattern is set..

T+168 850's of -10 across Ireland, -12 across the UK...

Followed by a complete reload from the North.

The entire British Isles would be cut off by Day 10 if this run were to occur & with the agreement this evening on the ''upgrading'' of next weeks' easterly I'm sure that the pros at Exeter must be a bit concerned to say the least.

One word, from start to finish - STUNNING.

IF this run were to verify then we would be heading for a Feb 1991, or even better!

[butler_son]

Arrghh you beat me to it by about 30 seconds

30 secs? I refute that allegation - I was waiting about 2 mins before you posted! Maybe the strength of connection is better in Nottingham than Leicester...

I can't see anywhere for this ECM operation to finish in its ensembles other than the colder end. If this is not a colder run (or even outlier), then the Pope is not Catholic.

[Matty M]

The outlooks is coninuing in a promising vain.

The start of a cold spell will begin to creep in from Sunday and who really knows when or how it will end.

But i very much believe we could have a protracted spell that really won't help our failing countries.

Take every model output with a pinch of salt, details will change greatly, but what is great tonight is

that all charts indicated to be a blast from the east and then most go for big height rises over Greenland

which means the blocked cold weather could last for a good time.

[johnholmes]

for those who might like a more measured response to what the 3 main models appear to be showing for next week I'll do another blog later this evening.

[Snowaddict]

Well just watched the Irish weather on tv and they said mostly or completely dry next week, though cooling down. What the..... charts are they looking at

I saw this also JS...

John Eagleton was using the 00Z ECMWF Operational Run, I went & compared it to the overnight ECMWF as the trough was far more elongated & the high nearer to the British Isles than on today's 12Z..

Expect the 9.30PM broadcast to include the 12Z ECMWF guidance..

[TEITS]

Wow some really incredible synoptics being shown in the short, medium, long term.

For starters the period from Wed-Friday is always likely to change and will continue to do so into early next week. Now im expecting the general theme to remain the same but when I say changes are likely im referring to the duration of the E,ly, depth of cold, flow i.e ENE,ly E,ly ESE,ly etc.

Into the longer term and the ECM shows that what we have coming this week is only just the beginning. Im becoming increasingly confident that just before xmas the NAO will fall through the floor with a deeply negative NAO.

Overall it doesn't get much better than this!

[cyclonic happiness]

There isn't a wrong side of the low fr that 216hrs chart, even on the southern side thicknesses are arouind 520...no doubts in my mind about snowfall...

240hrs sees probably the end of the spell in sight as I'd imagine as the block starts to relocate into a western based -ve NAO and low pressure takes over though still a chance that could evolve well if the other low gets sling-shot into Europe.

I don't know, there is nothing really in the offing coming from north america and the whole lot could re-load via the low sitting over us at 240 throwing lows back at europe as you say?

The coldness of our low at 240 would slow everything down wouldn't it?

[Geordiesnow]

Decent ECM it must be said, ignoring the proper FI charts, it's a run a cold fan should be happy with.

The easterly does not last too long mind but that can of course still change, it's about getting the set up into the reliable time frame and we are not that far off now.

Quite a lengthy cold spell this will be, which has technically started today for some with frost and stubborn thick fog.

[Snowyowl9]

ECM +240 shows that large high pressure from the Arctic sitting with it's centre right over the Midlands. I wonder whether it would still be very cold, or whether milder air, warm sectors etc would be mixed in?

You must be referring to the 0z run.

This shows a very cold lp crashing over top of us

We`d all be blocked in by snow, as that would give another easterly after at T264 I`d reckon.

All too far away that is.

[kold weather]

Probably pretty low I'd imagine David, all depends on the snowcover but I'd imagine you'd be looking at some very cold temps at then surface thats for sure!

That 216hrs chart is pretty crazy I have to admit, reminds me somewhat of December 81 in fact!