Cold Spell Discussion

[Ben_Cambs]

18z not as good as I thought it would be im afraid, but heres hoping for an upgrade during the night

[Weather-history]

Some echoes of second half of December 1961, a high pressure retrograding to Greenland and then a low pressure slipping southwards bringing down Arctic air with the charts at the moment.

[Snowmadsam]

Not a very good 18z run tonight for western areas hope for an upgrade during the night

[dogs32]

Not a very good 18z run tonight for western areas hope for an upgrade during the night

yes just been comparing the old gfs images

from earlier and there is quite a big difference..

Starting to think Thursdat/Fri and Sat doesnt look that good anymore...

on a positive note we still have a many gfs/ecm..ect runs left until next week

edit Hi Smarty Mate...lol...only see you in winter...lol.....yea doesnt look good at the mo..

but like you say plenty of more runs yet..

what fun last year was...good times

Edited December 12, 2009 by dogs32

[smarty81]

i would say a upgrade for the Midlands...more snow predicted...

keep increasing!!!

Hey Dogs Nice to see you back! I only come out of the woodwork in the winter months, nice to see you posting again.

Next week does look promising for snow? but the specifics will flip flop in the next few days lets just wait and see?

[hobbielancie]

I will stick my neck out and say it will be very cold with temps around 0c in the day in England. Snow flurries on the East coast with a few spreading inland. a light dusting perhaps?

[A.J]

To be honest.....my solution to the 'will it, wont it' questions regarding snowfall for next week is real easy...just look at the charts through alcohol-glazed eyes...trust me, everything then looks rosey

[Costa Del Fal]

What is 100% sure at the moment is there will be Weather! Have fun.

Not too surprised with the models at the moment but im pretty sure many will still see some snow this coming week. :)How much and exactly when and where remains to be seen.

Edited December 12, 2009 by Blizzards

[NorthantsSnow]

I wouldn't worry too much about the GFS precipitation charts. They were very inaccurate back in February as well.

[Costa Del Fal]

Well if the Precip type radar is right then some showers inland are of a wintry nature at the moment.

[damianslaw]

Many in the Inverness area will probably agree that the cold spell has arrived already in there neck of the woods with an ice day recorded here and minima below -5 degrees.

Much of central and southern scotland away from the far east and also Cumbria has experienced some cold conditions in the past 3 days, nothing spectacular fairly standard some may say, but for early-mid December temperatures have been a bit below average.

Looking to next week if we do get a deep cold fethc of air brought on by a strong NE wind, then the potential for heavy snow showers especially in the North East of England and East England I imagine would be very high with these showers very easily penetrating into many central areas such as the Midlands, Pennine Districts and further south into South East England. One factor people perhaps are not adding into the equation is that we have a relatively still warm North Sea this will be conducive to enhancing shower activity I feel and aid the development of more organised bands into possible troughs through heavy convection.

Longer term liking the idea of a northerly, this would certainly pull down very cold uppers and in a cold northerly most of the country is at risk as often troughs do develop remember back in Nov 2005 when SW England saw the heaviest of the snow showers in the country under a northerly, this northerly would be colder and very unstable

[LomondSnowstorm]

Look how wrong the precip charts were for a closer timescale than now, during the February easterly. On quite a few occasions, we've ended up with an inch or two when NO forecast chart, even 12 hours away, were predicting it. Given that we don't even know the full synoptic situation for this coming easterly, it's too early to think in any detail about precipitation, except that there will be more in the east than the west, and probably the south east moreso than the northeast. Even that could change. If you don't look at the charts till Monday, and expect them to be nothing at all special, then you may be pleasantly surprised by then.

LS

[hobbielancie]

From the Met Office:

We are predicting a much colder spell of weather over the coming days, with an increasing chance of sleet or snow, especially in the east.

Daytime temperatures may not rise much above freezing in places, with mist and fog that could persist in one or two areas.

Met Office Chief Forecaster, Frank Saunders said: “The change of weather follows a spell of very wet and mild weather but will add a more seasonal flavour for anybody out Christmas shopping in the days ahead.”

Optimistic for next week then?

[Neilsouth]

Not yet no , ask me on monday

[JamieUK]

Seems to be some winteriness heading my way right about now, that is if that netweather precip overlay is correct

[mackerel sky]

Taken at face value, the 18z GFS precipitation charts aren't reliable even for midnight, we've had showers on and off all night. Currently 2.8C with a dew point of 2.3C. Thats just as the colder uppers start to arrive from the near continent in the short term. Light snow showers in Northern Germany at present. I'd be very surprised if there were no reports of sleet or wet snow tomorrow in Eastern England/East Midlands, before the cold spell starts in earnest midweek.

Seems to be some winteriness heading my way right about now, that is if that netweather precip overlay is correct

Underneath the 'sleet' 35 miles SE of Leicester on that NW extra image. Just looks like plain old rain outside at the moment. Plenty of showers feeding off the Wash and up the Nene valley, so I'd expect this to continue overnight. I'll keep taking a look to there is any sniff of anything wintery.

Edited December 13, 2009 by mackerel sky

[JamieUK]

Underneath the 'sleet' 35 miles SE of Leicester on that NW extra image. Just looks like plain old rain outside at the moment. Plenty of showers feeding off the Wash and up the Nene valley, so I'd expect this to continue overnight. I'll keep taking a look to there is any sniff of anything wintery.

Yep your just about right, mainly rain a few sleety like things lol!

Ahwell

As for coming on here to see whats happening with the models, no one actually knows what theyr on about and whats going to happen. All im gonna do is wait and see what the weather does on the day. Which.......is the best way to deal with the weather!

Night everyone!

[mackerel sky]

Yep your just about right, mainly rain a few sleety like things lol!

Worth keeping an eye on lowering dew points if the precipitation overnight becomes a bit more widespread. It isn't impossible that those inland in the East Midlands southwards could see a cheeky little bit of winteryness in the next 24-36 hours, before we have a squeezed mild sector moving south on Tuesday and the main emphasis of the true cold beyond Wednesday.

Generally I think the MetO forecast maximum temperatures here for tomorrow and Monday are probably a good 2C above what they might be. I'd be surprised if it was 6 or 7C here tomorrow, more like 4C, and similar again on Monday.

Edited December 13, 2009 by mackerel sky

[kold weather]

The easterly still not being very well agreed upon though a general reduction in length and strength is still occuring at the moment. Still 12hrs is really all it takes to get a decent rash of showers heading inland. As others have said, the models are not going to be very good picking up the precip amounts, they nearly always under-estimate easterly precip amounts IMO.

Until the models come into agreement then things are going to be very uncertain indeed.

[Guest]

Its the pub run, more chance of an upgrade than downgrade!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1234966/Temperatures-plummet-3C-winter-weekend-sweeps-in.html

Media grabbing hold of this story, If you read it through, Paul has made a statement on this article about the chances of snow

What planet do these tabloids think they are on, temps come down to the average, or possibly just a little below and they think we are in the next ice age!

[Schnee]

What planet do these tabloids think they are on, temps come down to the average, or possibly just a little below and they think we are in the next ice age!

Articles in the media like that make my blood boil.

Heaven forbid if we get a week or 2 of widespread double figure temps below freezing. I told my Canadian friends about things like this and they just laugh.

[mackerel sky]

What planet do these tabloids think they are on, temps come down to the average, or possibly just a little below and they think we are in the next ice age!

I noted in Friday's Daily Mirror Brian Gaze of The Weather Outlook had chipped in with some comments on a similar article. Seems the link has gone, I can only glean this from a google search "11 Dec 2009 ... Cold snap slashes odds on White Xmas. ... Forecaster Brian Gaze, of The Weather Outlook, said: "The prospects for Christmas snow are better ...". Given that only a day or so beforehand on TWO their headline completely downplayed the prospects of this upcoming cold spell - and didn't even hedge their bets on Christmas, I was rather surprised. But we've seen it before from others. NW always maintains its integrity.

Edited December 13, 2009 by mackerel sky

[Schnee]

Did anyone see the bit at the bottom?

On Thursday the Met Office declared that next summer is likely to be the hottest year globally since records began nearly 160 years ago.

Anyhow,

Nice to see that we got a mention

[andy_leics22]

Hmmmm if one of those lil showers made it's way to my neck of the woods things may get a little sleety in nature. Current temp is around 2c and dew is around 1c.

[mackerel sky]

We've had a hail shower then a bit of sleet about 3am. Just goes to show that if the wind direction is right you can get a good old stream of showers off the Wash into this area, I think TETIS would call it the Wash Streamer, but its just been a good few showers running up the Nene Valley via Peterborough. Happy for that to continue. But the fronts stalled here in February, and we accumulated not consecutively in one sitting of course, 22 inches of snow in that 2 week spell, with a maximum of 14 inches level out in the fields. I think I posted my footprints on my walks with the dogs who love it. So here is hoping.

I have a baby now who needs to like cold, not like his mother...

Edited December 13, 2009 by mackerel sky