Cold Spell Discussion

[Nights King]

indeed and uk met talking about showers turning to snow on the hills by tomorrow,

and then more likely snow by thursday this does not say downgrade to me.

it also goes to show the headache being caused by the models as uk met medium term still has not been updated lol.

I have noticed the snow level on brekon beakon mountains is only 200ish metres! That puts me well over snow line... just need some ppn now

Sorry i put this in wrong thread my bad! please move it to cold spell discussion.

Edited December 13, 2009 by mullender83

[i luv snow]

Unlike many it seems I was dissapointed by that forecast. I remember the CF forecast from last Feb showing heavy widespread snow lasting for most of the week in the East, which is what we got. What that forecast showed was sleety showers over Eastern areas and he wasn't even bullish about that. The City forecasts showed dry and around 2/3c on Friday. In many parts of Europe in December that would be classed as just an average winters day. Coupled with the forecast for thursday on meto sight of "showers -wintry on hills on Thurs" I can't see what the hype is about!?

Jeez - be positive people!

This is simple...back in feb the forecast was for the entire week ahead starting from earl on...the potential 'snowy' spell this time doesnt look set to get going until the end of the week, into the weekend and beyond. The cold is already here and is nailed on, but the ppn issue is very much more up in the air, and with it being a few days away there is a tad more caution, hence the 'sitting on the fence a little bit' forecaste - which incidentally sounds like it still looked very promising according to most of the posts. The snow potential is still a few days away, expect more exciting forecasts come late monday/tuesday if the models remain the same

[Snowyowl9]

2 cold easterlies not that much difference over us feb 2009/1997

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2009/Rrea00220090202.gif 0.5c higher to Jan 1997 and thats my temp.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1997/Rrea00219970101.gif

Wonder how cold the upper air would get on UKMO T120/144 get with that strong east flow, as it only goes to T72.

http://meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=&carte=1007&ech=6

[i luv snow]

Wonder how cold the upper air would get on UKMO T120/144 get with that strong east flow, as it only goes to T72.

http://meteociel.fr/...arte=1007&ech=6

That chart already suggest cold uppers approaching (and already partially over) the UK. As many have said, the cold is here - and nailed on- now its the details of ppn (how heavy/where) that will be determined over next couple of days : o )

Edited December 13, 2009 by i luv snow

[Nick L]

Met Office are certainly taking their time with the outlook update today!

[Nights King]

Met Office are certainly taking their time with the outlook update today!

They are working the figures to see whether it can be linked to global warming!

Lets hope it is worth the wait.

[03jtrickey]

Met Office are certainly taking their time with the outlook update today!

And who can blame them? So much uncertainty in short timeframes so it's going to be a tough call, especially with the forecast covering Christmas Day.

And here it is:

"Initially it looks likely to be cold with sleet and snow showers, most of which will fall in northern and eastern areas, giving accumulations of snow in places. There is also the risk of some more persistent sleet or snow at times in northern parts whereas the driest conditions are most likely to occur in the south and west. There is also a risk of freezing fog patches. Many parts windy with a significant wind chill making it feel very cold. As we move into the following week we are likely to see a period of sleet and snow moving northwards across the UK, turning to rain in the south. Then, over the Christmas period we currently expect unsettled and occasionally windy conditions, and perhaps turning less cold at times."

[cheshire snow]

I'd be very shocked if that was true? 30-40cm of snow was some of the higher totals received in the more favoured areas for snow during the February cold spell. The most that was seen in the North West was just a few inches I think.

I would be very shocked aswell LOl i only live 15 miles away from Runcorn and got naff all.

C.S

[Nick L]

And who can blame them? So much uncertainty in short timeframes so it's going to be a tough call, especially with the forecast covering Christmas Day.

And here it is:

"Initially it looks likely to be cold with sleet and snow showers, most of which will fall in northern and eastern areas, giving accumulations of snow in places. There is also the risk of some more persistent sleet or snow at times in northern parts whereas the driest conditions are most likely to occur in the south and west. There is also a risk of freezing fog patches. Many parts windy with a significant wind chill making it feel very cold. As we move into the following week we are likely to see a period of sleet and snow moving northwards across the UK, turning to rain in the south. Then, over the Christmas period we currently expect unsettled and occasionally windy conditions, and perhaps turning less cold at times."

I think that is a fair sum up of the coming period. Certainly is a trend for a less cold Christmas, but not necessarily mild. I think in a nutshell that forecast says snow is possible just about anywhere.

[Essexgooner]

I would be very shocked aswell LOl i only live 15 miles away from Runcorn and got naff all.

C.S

lol....... some people get over excited

[Nights King]

And who can blame them? So much uncertainty in short timeframes so it's going to be a tough call, especially with the forecast covering Christmas Day.

And here it is:

"Initially it looks likely to be cold with sleet and snow showers, most of which will fall in northern and eastern areas, giving accumulations of snow in places. There is also the risk of some more persistent sleet or snow at times in northern parts whereas the driest conditions are most likely to occur in the south and west. There is also a risk of freezing fog patches. Many parts windy with a significant wind chill making it feel very cold. As we move into the following week we are likely to see a period of sleet and snow moving northwards across the UK, turning to rain in the south. Then, over the Christmas period we currently expect unsettled and occasionally windy conditions, and perhaps turning less cold at times."

period of snow from south turning to rain......

That is all we can hope for in west country transitional snow. I guess the snow line will be somewhere around m4 corridor also.

Edited December 13, 2009 by mullender83

[Ben_Cambs]

Hi all,

I had a footy match so i wasnt here to witness the latest GFS run, Can I have an update from somebody please?

[Ripeberry]

Well that's it then, rain for us in the South for Xmas....as usual

[MR EXTREMES]

Well that's it then, rain for us in the South for Xmas....as usual

trust me anything can change by then imagine if it is held south so much going on id even say this could turnout fantastic with christmas turning out white.

take that forecast with a pinch of salt thats what i say the last part of the outlook.

remember less cold at times means uncertain.

Edited December 13, 2009 by badboy657

[Ben_Cambs]

When the Met Office says less cold at times it means they do not have a lot of confidence in their forecast

[guitarnutter]

Lol i love how Ian Brown's bull phrase has bee changed to Christmas Pudding! I was thinking only the other day it should be changed with the swear filter!

Edited December 13, 2009 by guitarnutter

[Nick L]

christmas pudding

Absolutely, the death of the christmas pudding is upon us.

But the Met Office forecast IMO suggests that anything is possible!

[Ben_Cambs]

Absolutely, the death of the christmas pudding is upon us.

But the Met Office forecast IMO suggests that anything is possible!

:unsure: A Christmas pudding hater?!?!?!

Charts still look good for my area, EA and SE defiently looking like they will see the most snow if the Easterly does happen

[Solar Cycles]

Lol i love how Ian Brown's bull phrase has bee changed to Christmas Pudding! I was thinking only the other day it should be changed with the swear filter!

even larger teapot, R.I.P!!!! :unsure:

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Looking good for some snow at the end of the week guys. :unsure:

I must ask though,where is Ian Brown?

The 'blowtorch' Dec is looking absolutely bust just like last years record breaking Jan!

I want to ask him is the MW theory offically dead in the water.Seeing as the MW theory doent allow stable high lat

blocking i assume it is dead in the water?

[guitarnutter]

christmas pudding 1987-2009!

[SMU]

Looking good for some snow at the end of the week guys. :unsure:

I must ask though,where is Ian Brown?

The 'blowtorch' Dec is looking absolutely bust just like last years record breaking Jan!

I want to ask him is the MW theory offically dead in the water.Seeing as the MW theory doent allow stable high lat

blocking i assume it is dead in the water?

Lets hope Ian is Back soon with a record breaking warm Jan Feb & march!!!!!

Cold & cloudy here in Bexleyheathville- 5C....

Awaiting the colder air this wk..

S

[Neilsouth]

Month By Month Breakdown – December

We are likely to see the effects of the Nino in full force here – and I would expect this to manifest itself with deep low pressure in the Atlantic feeding bands of rain up across the UK. This chart will be typical of the pattern :-

http://www.wzkarten....00119871225.gif

It will be very unsettled and mild, with some exceptionally high maxima and minima in Western areas and places exposed to the Fohn effect. Christmas day is likely to be mild and dry for most parts before rain moves into the West later. It is possible that High pressure could settle things down right at the end of the month.

A very wet and stormy month especially in South West England and Ireland, with a CET return of between 6.5 and 7C, making it possibly the mildest December of the mode** er*.

Anybody noticed how badly wrong Ian Brown's forecast is AGAIN? , the last forecast was wrong now this is!. Nothing about high pressures early in the month or mid , Cold weather , easterly winds ! :unsure:

Edited December 13, 2009 by neilsouth

[andy_leics22]

Hmmm i'm not impressed now. I knew I shouldn't have let the GFS lead me on a merry dance down the road of disapointment.

From what looked like a potent Easterly has now turned into a weak affair with a small chance of snow in the next 4-5 days but nothing to get too excited about.

[MR EXTREMES]

even larger teapot, R.I.P!!!! :unsure:

lets hope so.