Model Chat And Moods

[Paul]

This new thread is for more emotive and light hearted chat about the models, please take a look at this thread for more information on this:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/58023-winter-topics-please-read/

You can view all the latest model runs here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

[tinybill]

this what no gaps are giving for the 20 th of dec !!!!!!!!!

[tinybill]

try this one no gaps for the 20 h of dec

[John Snow]

The ECM is a once in a lifetime chart, pretty much makes a certainty of 3-4ft of lying snow for the North particularly Scotland and the NE and drifts could exceed 20-30ft, mammoth blizzards if the ECM comes off which it looks like it will now as 120hrs is reliable timeframe

OK chart down here but at best we will get 3-4 inches which is OK but I can't help be envious at the lucky Geordies and Scots and Yorkshiremen that are going to get several feet of lying snow

[guitarnutter]

I can't help but feel we are going to be let down again. More downgrades for the easterlies, only -5 air reaching us now, and more downgrades to come. Yet again we are looking into FI for snow opportunities and cold, and thats where it always seems to stay.

I hope i am wrong about this, but it looks like it will go pear-shaped even with a massive Greenland high.

[John Snow]

I can't help but feel we are going to be let down again. More downgrades for the easterlies, only -5 air reaching us now, and more downgrades to come. Yet again we are looking into FI for snow opportunities and cold, and thats where it always seems to stay.

I hope i am wrong about this, but it looks like it will go pear-shaped even with a massive Greenland high.

120hrs is hardly FI though

The ECM forecasts deep deep snow and massive blizzards and the UKMO is starting to join the party, only the GFS is a bit more conservative but I think by 18Z that will be in line with the ECM

[BARRY]

Well it looks like winter is finally upon us, Great model watching potential good news if your sat in an nice cosy office, Bad news for us outside all day, But we can't have it both ways in the summer we get are come up-pence

[Methuselah]

The ECM is a once in a lifetime chart, pretty much makes a certainty of 3-4ft of lying snow for the North particularly Scotland and the NE and drifts could exceed 20-30ft, mammoth blizzards if the ECM comes off which it looks like it will now as 120hrs is reliable timeframe

OK chart down here but at best we will get 3-4 inches which is OK but I can't help be envious at the lucky Geordies and Scots and Yorkshiremen that are going to get several feet of lying snow

Blimey mate, if we start thinking like that, we'll all be in for letdown!

[cold snap]

If the GFS does not back down then BBC will look stupid.

They are convinced it will happen.they were NOT unsure,PPN amounts unsure yes.

GFS has been very solid recently.and a backtrack should happen.but GFS loves slow backtracks.will be intresting to see the next round of GFS Charts for sure

[Frosty.]

Super. My gut feeling says the 12z ukmo n ecmwf will follow the gfs as I just cant see the gfs backing down in its normally so solid timeframe. But a gfs backdown would be an upgrade of epic proportions!

The gfs 6z was a huge upgrade on the 00z with cold lasting until the 29th, the 6z was much more like the ecm 00z but still lots more fine tuning to come although it's looking good for everyone. Nice to see the positive mood from most on here, we haven't seen charts like these for many a year over such a sustained period but we now want it to deliver..please

[MR EXTREMES]

The trend on the GFS has so far been to downgrade temperatures. If you take the GFS output and add on some downgrades in temperatures of the sort we have seen since Friday (see my above post where I defended this view) the event is not nailed on.

Not ruling out an ECM scenario which over the last couple of days has been, bar one or two runs, consistent in a fairly fast moving cold easterly. That's why this is a Battle of the Models.

to be honest every model has had its wobble and i see no downgrade in the good timeframe so my advice is forget the fi and watch the fun.

ukmo has come up trumps ecm last night was fantastic fax is pretty good aswell theres more positives than donwgrades.

[Harsh Climate]

The gfs 6z was a huge upgrade on the 00z with cold lasting until the 29th, the 6z was much more like the ecm 00z but still lots more fine tuning to come although it's looking good for everyone. Nice to see the positive mood from most on here, we haven't seen charts like these for many a year over such a sustained period but we now want it to deliver..please

Ye it would be fantastic if it could deliver just this once! But even if we dont get much snowfall next week, if the greeny high and cold can just hang on through christmas with no breakdown, that would be a fantastic platform for the rest of winter!

And never the less, just the model watching itself has been exciting stuff.

[pyrotech]

The main reason is because the gfs has started to back track on itself over the last few days and know is well within its reliable timeframe. It would be very unusual for the gfs to give us such a big upgrade (suddenly giving us the type of easterly that ecm is offering wed-sat), especially when the model is renound for downgrading. Also the ecm has chopped and changed so rapidly within the last 5 days, I think its quite easy for it to quickly change again towards the gfs, a lot easier than it will be for the gfs to make a big u-turn.

I certainly hope Im wrong and the gfs follows the ecm this evening, but not sure it will happen

Thing is if GFS changes to be more like ecm then to anyone who wants mild its a downgrade, to anyone wanting cold its an upgrade. You can only call it a downgrade if it shows a transition from one run to another of less than you want of a perticular weather, temperature or trend. I have seen downgrades as they get called on here at 48hrs by GFS for mild wet weather, its just alot of people only see downgrades on cold due to not taking as much notice of models when cold like this is not shown on them.

I would be surprised more if UKMO was wrong at this timescale.

[TEITS]

This thread is perfect for what im about to say.

The possbile cold spell coming up isn't just important for the next week or so but the future of model watching for me. As some might remember I was rather downbeat about our prospects for this winter but the recent models have certainly changed that.

In recent years N Blocking and the infamous Greenland HP have always been absent in recent years and to be honest since 1987 we have hardly seen any blocking with the exception of Feb 91, 95-96.

If the models continue with the same trend to +240 this will mean my enthusiasim for following the models in winter will continue for many years. The simple reason is if it happens this winter then it illustrates that we can still get N blocking in this so called christmas pudding!

Lol at how Ian brown famous phrase has been changed to christmas pudding.

Edited December 13, 2009 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[SteveB]

This thread is perfect for what im about to say.

The possbile cold spell coming up isn't just important for the next week or so but the future of model watching for me. As some might remember I was rather downbeat about our prospects for this winter but the recent models have certainly changed that.

In recent years N Blocking and the infamous Greenland HP have always been absent in recent years and to be honest since 1987 we have hardly seen any blocking with the exception of Feb 91, 95-96.

If the models continue with the same trend to +240 this will mean my enthusiasim for following the models in winter will continue for many years. The simple reason is if it happens this winter then it illustrates that we can still get N blocking in this so called christmas pudding!

Lol at how Ian brown famous phrase has been changed to christmas pudding.

I agree. and if we do get a cold spell akin to winters of old, then that is a shot in the arm for solar minimum.

Edited December 13, 2009 by SteveB

[Harsh Climate]

This thread is perfect for what im about to say.

The possbile cold spell coming up isn't just important for the next week or so but the future of model watching for me. As some might remember I was rather downbeat about our prospects for this winter but the recent models have certainly changed that.

In recent years N Blocking and the infamous Greenland HP have always been absent in recent years and to be honest since 1987 we have hardly seen any blocking with the exception of Feb 91, 95-96.

If the models continue with the same trend to +240 this will mean my enthusiasim for following the models in winter will continue for many years. The simple reason is if it happens this winter then it illustrates that we can still get N blocking in this so called christmas pudding!

Lol at how Ian brown famous phrase has been changed to christmas pudding.

I agree entirely. If this coming cold spell turns out to be a cold spell typical of the last few years and eventually get replaced by zonality, this will be a huge kick in the nuts. And even I will find it hard to get excited by a start to winter with my usual enthuisasm..

[Frosty.]

This thread is perfect for what im about to say.

The possbile cold spell coming up isn't just important for the next week or so but the future of model watching for me. As some might remember I was rather downbeat about our prospects for this winter but the recent models have certainly changed that.

In recent years N Blocking and the infamous Greenland HP have always been absent in recent years and to be honest since 1987 we have hardly seen any blocking with the exception of Feb 91, 95-96.

If the models continue with the same trend to +240 this will mean my enthusiasim for following the models in winter will continue for many years. The simple reason is if it happens this winter then it illustrates that we can still get N blocking in this so called christmas pudding!

Lol at how Ian brown famous phrase has been changed to christmas pudding.

TEITS i'm with you 100% on that, following a sluggish start to the season, november was a poor month it has to be said. We are now seeing the most incredible charts I have seen in the 4 years I have been closely studying the models, all we want now is for that huge potential to deliver and give everyone some snow over the next few weeks, hopefully bucket loads of the stuff.

[Snowyowl9]

TEITS i'm with you 100% on that, following a sluggish start to the season, november was a poor month it has to be said. We are now seeing the most incredible charts I have seen in the 4 years I have been closely studying the models, all we want now is for that huge potential to deliver and give everyone some snow over the next few weeks, hopefully bucket loads of the stuff.

Yes indeed some fantastic charts and only 11 days to christmas eve what more can we ask for it`ll be cold thats for sure.

Just thinking it`ll be yet another fairly cold december how cold will be interesting, along way off december 1988

Edited December 13, 2009 by Snowyowl9

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

gfs O6Z rn HAS shifted towrds the Euros.I watched frame by frame on meteociel and the differences between 00z and 06z

were noticable at the key t78 mark.

Although i am a keen amateur ive seen enough evidence now to say the Beast is coming.I feel some Eastern and

South East districts could well get hammered Thur/Fr.

I hope this thread doesn't start with the regional bias's as i live in the North West and probably wont see

a great deal if any snow.

Im really chuffed for those in the east and south east though.I remeber they didnt get much last winter when i had

lying snow for about 7 to 10 days so good luck you gys i hope you get a winter wonderland at the end of the week.

And i think you will.

Enjoy!

[LomondSnowstorm]

Absolutely delighted by this morning's output, with the ECM holding firm, the UKMO looking much better and even the GFS moving towards the ECM's output. At this range, I'm going to favour the ECM, as it is probably the most reliable run at this timeframe, as well as receiving good support from the also reliable UKMO. The GFS 12Z, I believe, will move more towards this outlook, which is very very good for an IMBY point of view, though how good remains to be seen.

[Frosty.]

Yes indeed some fantastic charts and only 11 days to christmas eve :unsure: what more can we ask for it`ll be cold thats for sure.

Just thinking it`ll be yet another fairly cold december how cold will be interesting, along way off december 1988

I wasn't overly happy with the meto update just now but after reading it a few times, the mention of it being less cold at times in the extended output makes me think they are very unsure which model to trust although they appear to be siding with the gfs 00z on this occasion.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

I didnt have time to post yesterday (or the later part of Friday - I think :unsure: ).

Anyway. The GFS should not be discounted on the basis that it picked up the colder trend first, and the change of the 'majority' of the ensembles before Christmas to something more average is a plausible scenario.

The ECM was discredited quite a lot this week, and lots of talks about it losing its reputation. I don't think it has, but the fact the GFS is different from the ECM and UKMO, has to be taken in to account.

The op run was pretty much on its own for 850's.

One thing that can be taken quite seriously, is that above average temps for most are not really shown, so we can at least take some pleasure in the fact that the plausible scenario of around a weeks of below average temps looks good.

The funny thing is, the UKMO went with the GFS initially, and as the cold weather has approached, it appears (from what I am reading) to have fallen in line more so with the ECM.

Should perhaps the UKMO be taken more seriously as an indicator, rather than the usual GFS vs. ECM?

Up until around early Autumn (I think) the ECM was the more accurate of the models for the time frame it runs, but there appears to have been some slight changes overall with the UKMO and GFS.

However, the accuracy of all three I would classify as being as good as each other. I think the differences are always marginal.

PPN, as many of the more esteemed forecasters (such as Mr Holmes) have pointed at, is not something we should focus on in terms of trends. Small movements which do not effect the pattern of the weather (pressure, 850's and 2m temps), may (and perhaps, will) have more significant effects on the ppn.

The problem I see is we are expecting extremes from the models, and whilst this is always possible, we are talking about projections that are hard to beat.

We have lots to enjoy. Below average temps and possibilities of snow if the ppn hits right. A 'big freeze' is he extreme I talk about above, and expectations of this should always be advised with caution.

[phil nw.]

Inspired by the recent model outputs i was decided to look back at my weather log for 1963 Winter.

I then quickly compared my obs. to the chart archives and was surprised that some of the setups looked quite fragile for cold and snow yet they delivered, here is one example

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1963/Rrea00119630116.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1963/Rrea00219630116.gif

Is the block to the West sinking?cold air to the East,is it going south?doesn`t look too promising.Notice too no Greenland High in fact quite the opposite.

Yet,next day

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1963/Rrea00119630117.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1963/Rrea00219630117.gif

The block builds North east and advects the cold air towards the UK.

My log shows i had 3hrs of snow in the middle of the day then a clearance by evening with a sharp frost setting in.

The 17th was a sub-zero day ,clear with a bitter East wind force 3-4.

What i am saying is all is not lost if the Greenland block does move off eventually.

As the 1963 Winter showed pressure towards Greenland was often low-after the initial first phase of cold in Dec.1963,go through the archives and you will see what i mean.

Somehow though the jet stayed South,like now,and the blocking kept popping up in the right places to give the cold air either from the North or East.

[Rollo]

Indeed Phil,there were several occasions throughout that memorable winter when mild looked odds on but never made it,I still have the Met Office charts from mid-december through to the end of february to remind me how great it was--can it really be 46 years?

[Snowyowl9]

I wasn't overly happy with the meto update just now but after reading it a few times, the mention of it being less cold at times in the extended output makes me think they are very unsure which model to trust although they appear to be siding with the gfs 00z on this occasion.

I`ve just had a look at that run for the first time today and while the purple air doesn`t quite make it here dark blues and next shade down are cold enough for snow here.

I get a better picture on this for uppers,to progressive on day 9/10 with the atlantic a very deep low there.

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_850_loop_eur.html

Still a very good run under the circumstances. :unsure:

But ECM/UKMO are much colder and snowier.