Model Chat And Moods

[Harsh Climate]

Calm down, it seems every time something doesn't go quite right in your eyes, off you go...

It is only one run, it certainly doesn't look as good as the 00z but then that was a cracker. Decent GFS, very good METO and no this is not a 'seriously bad episode for the ECM'. Get some perspective for once Jed.

How isnt it a bad episode for the ecm?? Over the last week it has been absolutly all over the place changing rapidly run to run. The gfs has been pretty rock solid only differing small amounts each run before arriving at what is now a likely scenario.

I think people need to stop lashing out at hearing what they dont want to hear, that way we can get more views into the mix and let people come to their own conclusion without been lead by massive cold rampers.

I think you need to get some perspective pal and stop being so argumentative. Its only weather at the end of the day.

[TEITS]

Well as disappointing as the ECM is nothing has changed in my eyes because guess what the models will most likely be different tomorrow morning.

Still when I say disappointing im referring to the snow potential of the E,ly. Looking at the ECM synoptically its still a stunning run so far.

[Upgrade]

Looks like ECM is a massive downgrade.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Well as disappointing as the ECM is nothing has changed in my eyes because guess what the models will most likely be different tomorrow morning.

Still when I say disappointing im referring to the snow potential of the E,ly. Looking at the ECM synoptically its still a stunning run so far.

While i agree to a point mate that is a huge downgrade of the Easterly on the ecm.The northerly coming in at

144 might provide some cheers vut the really cold air has been severly shunted South and east on that ecm.

The -10 upperw wont be coming in until the 20th on that ecm

Although i havent seen the 850's but that would be observation.

[John Snow]

I think this must be a rogue run, maybe a return of the data problems the ECM had a few days back, this is a severe backtrack from the 0z and I just don't believe it really, rogue run surely

[Duane S.]

It's just one run. An absolute shocker of a run granted, BUT... just one run.

If we see the 18z tonight backtrack to this scenario followed by the 00z model runs then we may have to start to worry.

I simply don't think this will be the case. Stranger things have happened though.

[bluearmy]

i think i'm going - there is too much tosh being spouted in here.

the ecm evolution is awful for cold lovers isnt it ??? honestly, stop reacting to every twist and turn of each run - its infantile.

there is no missing data - its just a variation on a theme and very similar to GEM 12z and the overall evolution fits in nicely with meto and gfs.

Edited December 13, 2009 by bluearmy

[snowmadchrisuk]

It's just one run. An absolute shocker of a run granted, BUT... just one run.

If we see the 18z tonight backtrack to this scenario followed by the 00z model runs then we may have to start to worry.

I simply don't think this will be the case. Stranger things have happened though.

How , it looks like a good Easterly flow on Thursday , followed by a cracking Northerly . I don't see how this is a shocker.

Edited December 13, 2009 by snowmadchrisuk

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Just perhaps, the UKMO is right and the other two are wrong??

Just a thought?

Have a good evening all

But ECM is pretty good actually - even if the easterly is shorter than hoped for

Edited December 13, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Whether Idle]

ECM is flip flopping and is hardly covering itself in glory. GME GEM and UKMO are all broadly similar to 120. more runs needed.

[Cumulonimbus Tower]

How , it looks like a good Easterly flow on Thursday , followed by a cracking Northerly . I don't see how this is a shocker.

More elongated trough in the Atlantic on the ECM168, better prospects for a protracted cold spell?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

ecmwf is great, FI snowfest, maybe snow showers on thursday, just want met office website to stop saying occasional showers of rain and sleet

[The watcher]

Very happy with the ECM 12z, the Northerly is what I really want to see and the ECM still maintains its longetivity and bite with the Northerly. The Easterly is a little slack but still potent enough to see the possibility of some convective activity for the South and East coasts of England, though getting very close to being marginal now in most places because of the slackness.

[Geordiesnow]

It's funny because if the ECM looked like the UKMO, i can bet people would say, just wait for the GFS to back down type of comments yet when this is not the case and you be negative about the easterly, people still get shouted down. I have to admit i would be more confident if the ECM did look like the UKMO but even then, i still would not be happy until all 3 are on board

It is only one run but once again it's 2 Vs 1 on an quite a week easterly in strength and whilst it can still change, we are very much near the time where i can't see any real huge changes.

I thought i'll post this in this thread as my mood is a bit downbeat this evening but at least the UKMO has given us a slight bit of hope of something slightly better.

[Snowmad79]

Im sorry guys but im really lmfao at all those who started banging there heads on desks when they saw the ECM .. I could feel the vibrations .

A bet the mods are smacking there fods pretty hard too right now with all the moving and deleting going on hehehe.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Im sorry guys but im really lmfao at all those who started banging there heads on desks when they saw the ECM .. I could feel the vibrations .

A bet the mods are smacking there fods pretty hard too right now with all the moving and deleting going on hehehe.

If we put all our general stuff in here in the first place , there wouldn't be a problem . I'm sure you will get the experts coming in here and updating you all with what they think.

Does anybody know anywhere where you can get live observations of the current dam line number. Would be great to Judge snow. Although I guess they would be know way of observations that high in the sky.

[LomondSnowstorm]

The most beautiful weather output I've ever seen! The christmas pudding looks ridiculous now, and I feel it would take a fair turn around to stop most people seeing a good dumping of snow. The only worry I have is with the fax chart straddling the 528 line across the central belt! I feel that is not right somehow given the GFS and ECM both show it much further northwest by Thursday but with the exception of that, this is yet another astoundingly brilliant output (of which we've seen many in the last 7 days)! These are the type of charts which make you glad you became a weather-obsessive, especially somewhere that these events are very rare. I'm in love with the pub run, well and truly in love, and it seems to play more like a hopecast than a real run, with the snow stopping just after xmas to allow people to take in the snow! Not much more I can say, other than I hope it comes off!

LS

[David-kig]

UKMO updated on meteociel looks good. Precipitation for us southerners tuesday night, lets hope its cold enough!

na i think not maybe some sleet or abit snow on the highest ground but not the cheer about mainly rain i think until wednesday morning onwards snow

[Barometer Obama]

na i think not maybe some sleet or abit snow on the highest ground but not the cheer about mainly rain i think until wednesday morning onwards snow

Sadly I think you may be right, the 850 temps don't look quite cold enough until wednesday afternoon.

[David-kig]

i really think on this run is a best chance i have ever seen to an exterme cold spell if that cold air north of scotland 172t round about then moves say 300 miles south uk is in a ice age would be the dream of dreams thaty altantic better stay out lol

Aint saying it aint cold though i hope you feel the same looks that is a gd run upto f1 saying that maybe a reload end of the run

Sadly I think you may be right, the 850 temps don't look quite cold enough until wednesday afternoon.

have to say thinking of southampton i hope coastal areas get lucky 2

Edited December 14, 2009 by David-kig

[Barometer Obama]

It's not all about 850s remember....

Morning OP. What else is crucial ? Always tend to struggle down here on the coast, eg last Feb.

[Optimus Prime]

Whoops CAPE stands for Convective Available Potential Energy not the other way around....it's early.

[Iceberg]

For anyone not in the north thinking that a northerly is no good for them.

As it's shown at the moment it WILL BE VERY GOOD FOR EVERYONE.

Fronts look likely to stall in the south and the secondary lows will then flow se/east across from the west.

Better than an easterly or even a channel low IMO.

[David-kig]

nice to see greenland way above average and iceland :lol: even january dont't look bad. march april interesting times ahead signs are there though

For anyone not in the north thinking that a northerly is no good for them.

As it's shown at the moment it WILL BE VERY GOOD FOR EVERYONE.

Fronts look likely to stall in the south and the secondary lows will then flow se/east across from the west.

Better than an easterly or even a channel low IMO.

which chart is this nt gfs????

[blitzen]

For anyone not in the north thinking that a northerly is no good for them.

As it's shown at the moment it WILL BE VERY GOOD FOR EVERYONE.

You must be a mind reader Iceberg because that's exactly what I was thinking! Although i'm in the north, a northerly rarely produces as my location is too sheltered. I suppose with the potential of intensity, it may deliver this time. Good to hear though. These charts are unbelievable.

Edited December 14, 2009 by Blitzen