Model Chat And Moods

[Eugene]

Yes not much use those CFS charts but four out of six below average months there, only thing i don't like is a mild Feb but a warm May would be very nice indeed.

Excellent output again with plenty of opportunities for snowfall somewhere in the UK< yes some will miss out but thats the nature of british winters.

Lots of snowy breakdown possibilities too around christmas with the blocking reloading again i see hopefully heralding GP`s cold January

Edited December 14, 2009 by Eugene

[David-kig]

This ECM shows it very well. In the early chart look at the flat isobar across the M4 in the south, this shows a sharp front of instability that's stalled.

Also the kink over ireland just below the 1005.

The next chart 24hrs later shows this kink forming a full on LP system feeding on the instability of the front above and pushing systems back eastwards again.

In a way there is too much instability, but this will probably get toned down and moved Eastwards anyway.

that just sounds to good to be true. how much support is there didnt see anything like that on the gfs i dont think.

saying that gfs is looking snowy further north weekend i take that bk but ecm is diff better for south to gd that i dont think i be able to get out my door 2 even see it lmao

Edited December 14, 2009 by David-kig

[snowmadchrisuk]

The most beautiful weather output I've ever seen! The christmas pudding looks ridiculous now, and I feel it would take a fair turn around to stop most people seeing a good dumping of snow. The only worry I have is with the fax chart straddling the 528 line across the central belt! I feel that is not right somehow given the GFS and ECM both show it much further northwest by Thursday but with the exception of that, this is yet another astoundingly brilliant output (of which we've seen many in the last 7 days)! These are the type of charts which make you glad you became a weather-obsessive, especially somewhere that these events are very rare. I'm in love with the pub run, well and truly in love, and it seems to play more like a hopecast than a real run, with the snow stopping just after xmas to allow people to take in the snow! Not much more I can say, other than I hope it comes off!

LS

Yep snow from tomorrow, even the MetOffice has snow for tomorrow on there forecast .... The warmest air is over us right now and that will start to clear out throughout the day . Today is an unusual one ,as it is going to be a day of falling temps instead of rising.

[Neilsouth]

The 00Z ECM T+96 chart is potentially very cold and snowy for the southeast:

Then by T+120 its time to look north:

Sensational output again this morning.

About damn time , great model's this morning i was concerned that the models would drop the easterly altogether but so far it's atleast keeping it going longer than a day!.

[TEITS]

Members should save some of these model runs on their computer.

The reason being is I believe to have these synoptics in mid Dec is probably once every 20yrs, if not more.

[Tom D]

This is an incredible run... the Atlantic is dead all throughout!

[Eugene]

LOL, just after i said that the atlantic suddenly wakes up and gives us a BBQ christmas, slight warm outlier here me thinks

[PompeyFC]

I cannot see apart from the favoured area's on this setup - ie slackish easterly and potent northerly how it would be good for everyone - certainly the south coast - hampshire in particularly never fares well. Am I missing something - I am not sure what instability etc means in these type of setups

[grab my graupel]

I have to say, given we were faced with the kind of chart below, at a similar stage last year, I'm delighted with the current output

[MR EXTREMES]

I cannot see apart from the favoured area's on this setup - ie slackish easterly and potent northerly how it would be good for everyone - certainly the south coast - hampshire in particularly never fares well. Am I missing something - I am not sure what instability etc means in these type of setups

hello good to have someone from the same area as me we can whine together lol.

no seriously i think we have a chance as well easterlys do like to run showers inland and along the southcoast,

also a little thing to remember is features running through or up from the south in the 80s i see some amzing snowfall from this type of setup.

alantic attack aswell but its rare here for it to last more than a few hours before it turns back to rain,

as for the alantic id rather forget that lol.

as for northerly remember the famous thunder snow 4 or 5 years ago it only gave a couple of inches but that was brought down from a arctic blast,

this feature is showing on models so there is a small possability,

higher chance from easterly maybe northeasterly if were lucky,

and also small chance from the south from france but its better if very cold air is settled in there.

[Solar Cycles]

Members should save some of these model runs on their computer.

The reason being is I believe to have these synoptics in mid Dec is probably once every 20yrs, if not more.

I would say they are very similar to 78/79, I fully expect this winter to be similar to that one. If I'm wrong, I'll eat my hat!

[John Snow]

Severe downgrades for the south today it is fast becoming a northern and north eastern event, we will end up with the north and north east getting several feet of snow by sunday night and the south getting at best a wintry mix. Very disappointing, guess am ging to have to go snow chasing later in the week

[mwhalber]

Severe downgrades for the south today it is fast becoming a northern and north eastern event, we will end up with the north and north east getting several feet of snow by sunday night and the south getting at best a wintry mix. Very disappointing, guess am ging to have to go snow chasing later in the week

based upon what data are you making this statement? what downgrade, on what model panels/runs for the SE?

please back up your statements with data.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Severe downgrades for the south today it is fast becoming a northern and north eastern event, we will end up with the north and north east getting several feet of snow by sunday night and the south getting at best a wintry mix. Very disappointing, guess am ging to have to go snow chasing later in the week

Oh dear oh dear - you should move north. I didn't expect to wake-up to snow this morning, but alas, I did.

Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.

[mwhalber]

We are going to get nothing out of the northerly, we never do well with northerlies and the warm sectors look primed for the south, really see little optimism for a snow fest now

conjecture != model discussion.

Please back up statements with data.

Edited December 14, 2009 by mwhalber

[sunny scunny]

It looks like a cold and dry spell for my area later in the week, which isn't anything to get excited about.

[MR EXTREMES]

Severe downgrades for the south today it is fast becoming a northern and north eastern event, we will end up with the north and north east getting several feet of snow by sunday night and the south getting at best a wintry mix. Very disappointing, guess am ging to have to go snow chasing later in the week

the models just put things back again i dont see the concern read jh and gp thoughts.

this is fantastic even if i get 1 flake of snow i will be happy.

[Neilsouth]

This is my moods this week based on the models!

[Osbourne One-Nil]

It's going terribly well. I do love seeing people get distraught over one set of computer calculations. Most entertaining.

[MR EXTREMES]

Oh dear oh dear - you should move north. I didn't expect to wake-up to snow this morning, but alas, I did.

Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.

we dont need to move north it be fine we will get our chance if not this event im sure there be more.

[Paul Sherman]

Severe downgrades for the south today it is fast becoming a northern and north eastern event, we will end up with the north and north east getting several feet of snow by sunday night and the south getting at best a wintry mix. Very disappointing, guess am ging to have to go snow chasing later in the week

John

I have to ask this question, how old are you ?? And if you are really young and are attempting to go Snow Chasing then taking a car whilst underage is very dangerous in slippery condition, your posts are coming across like a 5 year old Mate!

Paul S

[Neilsouth]

John

I have to ask this question, how old are you ?? And if you are really young and are attempting to go Snow Chasing then taking a car whilst underage is very dangerous in slippery condition, your posts are coming across like a 5 year old Mate!

Paul S

Come on Paul abit ott ? , it's just the weather.. My dad doesn't think it will snow this week , shall tell him he's coming across like a 5year old?

[Snowgrowler]

Models look interesting this morning, why hasn't the local forcast been updated from the 00Z run - I need the experts help to see what weather is expected from this set up!

[glasgow-guy]

I like how the models have swung back around again for the better of course during this week there is bound to be unhappy people who will not even seen a snow flake this week but I feel very confident that this week will be very memorable cameras at the ready people

Edited December 14, 2009 by glasgow-guy

[John Snow]

John

I have to ask this question, how old are you ?? And if you are really young and are attempting to go Snow Chasing then taking a car whilst underage is very dangerous in slippery condition, your posts are coming across like a 5 year old Mate!

Paul S

31, married

I am however snow obsessed and these charts are unlike anything I have seen in my lifetime and may never seem again, so naturally there is a sense of desperation to be part of what is turning into being a very special event.

So if the South misses out I see nothing wrong in going and staying in a hotel for a couple of days in an area that will be sure of seeing the action.