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Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

Models look interesting this morning, why hasn't the local forcast been updated from the 00Z run - I need the experts help to see what weather is expected from this set up!

Just as I say this, the forcast is updated! Perhaps I should say where is all the snow and see if it starts!

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Come on Paul abit ott ? , it's just the weather.. My dad doesn't think it will snow this week , shall tell him he's coming across like a 5year old?

Think that is a bit different to what John has been saying.

Having checked his post data for the past 2 days he has said that some areas are going to get 15-20 feet of snow, with 5-10 feet in the South East, then comes on and says no-one in the South is going to see Snow now. This is erratic posting to the extreme and winds up members and gets the threads into a nightmare situation for Mods

Paul S

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Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl

we dont need to move north it be fine we will get our chance if not this event im sure there be more.:D

Its grim up north Badboy.

You'll be fine down in Pompey .... back in the early 80s (can't remember which year) I remember walking to school along Tangier Rd ... on top of a 4ft hedge which was covered by a snow drift....... followed by some late afternoon skiing on Portsdown hill!! - I jest not... and if that doesn't come off this time, Butser hill is always a good bet.

As to moaning about the models, some people need to get a grip because we haven't seen anything this good for years. :D

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Posted
  • Location: Coulsdon, Surrey
  • Location: Coulsdon, Surrey

Think that is a bit different to what John has been saying.

Having checked his post data for the past 2 days he has said that some areas are going to get 15-20 feet of snow, with 5-10 feet in the South East, then comes on and says no-one in the South is going to see Snow now. This is erratic posting to the extreme and winds up members and gets the threads into a nightmare situation for Mods

Paul S

I never said that, I said the North and North East would get 3-4ft of snow from the Northerly if it came off how the 18z showed, there would also IMHO be 20-30ft drifts and then the 18z showed severe blizzards for xmas day so I added that on top of what would be lying already

I think I said about 3-4 INCHES for the south not feet

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

31, married

I am however snow obsessed and these charts are unlike anything I have seen in my lifetime and may never seem again, so naturally there is a sense of desperation to be part of what is turning into being a very special event.

So if the South misses out I see nothing wrong in going and staying in a hotel for a couple of days in an area that will be sure of seeing the action.

I seriously dont think you will need to bother with the Hotel John!

Some parts of East Anglia will see some Snow (2 Hours Drive) and if not then Steve Murr is always up for a Snow Chase if the Synoptics push this further North.

I am pretty sure most places east of a Bristol, Welsh Marches, NW England line will see snow before this weekend

Paul S

Actually you said 30-40ft drifts by Boxing Day so I underestimated your depth

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Appleby in Westmorland
  • Location: Nr Appleby in Westmorland
...otherwise we might as well just close the board and just have a blog for johnholmes, Steve Murr etc to give their thoughts on the models
I've been suggesting that for years.
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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

I've been suggesting that for years.

laugh.gif Ossy you are a one off.

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Posted
  • Location: Barnet, North London
  • Location: Barnet, North London

Things really are getting exciting now, although I'm tempted to wish for a pre-Xmas breakdown.

The travel disruption given the amount of trips visiting family etc is bad enough as it is. Add a couple of feet of snow and it will be hell!bomb.gif

Latest runs have been upgrading the short term but downgrading the long term - this could be a blesssing in disguise.

smich

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Posted
  • Location: Derby - 46m (151ft) ASL
  • Location: Derby - 46m (151ft) ASL

Just thought i'd put something in here, rather than clog up the already cluttered model discussion thread.

A lot of talk about the colder weather being delayed, when in fact from a rather perhaps poor memory, this hasn't been the case.

What has actually happened was that the severity of the cold projected at the start of the week was downgraded. However, then down grade was from very cold to cold. There are now some new signs of perhaps some very cold conditions now coming in later in the week.

So a delay, no. A downgrade in severity for the first half of this week, yes.

But....it is still going to be cold, and the parameters for snow (when ppn is about) is still plausable for snow (albeit marginal at times in the first half of the week).

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Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London

esm is superb tonight.No doubt about it.

Keeps the UK cold right out to christmas.

NOGAPS 12Z is also superb :):yahoo: :lol:

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

just seen models ecmwf fantastic, white xmas, loads of snow between 18th onwards, but FI, gfs not so good, northerly been pushed back and seems weaker

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Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003

One thing im finding odd is the local news , well even the national news just isnt taken by this cold snap.

Last week we had a minor frost / slushy dew.

The local paper warned of a "big freeze" lol just for that one night.

Now we are heading for quite a freeze taking over the country and no one is saying anything.

Maybe they know something we dont.( unlikely )

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

A lot of talk about the colder weather being delayed, when in fact from a rather perhaps poor memory, this hasn't been the case.

What has actually happened was that the severity of the cold projected at the start of the week was downgraded. However, then down grade was from very cold to cold. There are now some new signs of perhaps some very cold conditions now coming in later in the week.

So a delay, no. A downgrade in severity for the first half of this week, yes.

People tend to remember what they want

It was going to be very cold and potentially snowy on the 13th december , that was suggested back cira 6th December. I remember as the 13th was my mum birthday and I was worried about the travel.

We then had mon/tues this week then weds/thur now looking more like fri/sat

So yes the cold weather has been 'delayed'. Now if you suggest it isnt because of downgrades thats fine this would imply cold weather is never delayed which of literally is true , it makes its own mind up and doesnt rely on the models.whistling.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Melbourne, Victoria
  • Location: Melbourne, Victoria

all this talk of downgrades and disapointments. Keep taking the tablets. It's freezing cold out there and the charts look great for snow. What's the issue with people?

Edited by jimmyay
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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham U.K.
  • Location: Birmingham U.K.

all this talk of downgrades and disappointments. Keep taking the tablets. It's freezing cold out there and the charts look great for snow. What's the issue with people?

Well said. The charts are very promising, especially for this early in the season.

Regards,

Mike.

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Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Wintry and stormy weather
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent

all this talk of downgrades and disapointments. Keep taking the tablets. It's freezing cold out there and the charts look great for snow. What's the issue with people?

I think it might have something to do with phrases like 'classic winter' '1947/1963/1981/1987/1991' etc when really it seems like it'll be a minor event at best....only my opinion and i'm happy to be proved wrong however.

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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

Hi all, iv been out all day at work and unable to check the models until now as i went straight up to st andrews after work to watch the famous boys in blue !! My brother told me about the downgrade earlier today and i thought nothing of it , and now iv just checked the models and it put the smile even bigger on my face after watchin the blues win , it was a perfect end to a tue night !! Im very happy with the charts and the trend is cold and snowy and always has been in the main , its a rolercoaster yes , but with more ups than downs now , im very happy and its only a matter when the snow comes i feel now , not if . Happy days . . . . . . .for now cold.gifcold.gifcold.gifcold.gifgood.gifgood.gifgood.gif

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Posted
  • Location: consett co durham
  • Location: consett co durham

People dismissing low temps forecast as ridiculous- Jan 1987 Shooters Hill early morning waiting for a bus my hair froze records show London had min -9c max -5c -Central London on several occasions have had maxs of -5c. Biggin Hill 1987 Min -11c max -7c . Once snow falls overnight clear skies no wind even the tropical city centre can fall below -6c

Jan 1987 Shooters Hill early morning waiting for a bus my hair froze

were you still in the gutter lol.

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Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m

Since around 2002/03, for whatever reason the BBC forecasts have consistently tended to overstate maximum temperatures in northerly regimes, sometimes by a few degrees- oddly they rarely do this when the winds are easterly. I will be extremely surprised if maxima of 4C occur widely across Scotland on either day of the weekend.

Perhaps they are erring on the side of caution when past frontal events of this kind gave rise to snow in the east and rain in the west, when the BBC predicted snow for nearly all parts, e.g. 27/28 January 2004, 22/23 March 2008.

Like many I am quite disheartened by this trend on the models for the lows and the -NAO to be progged further west as we get close to the big day, resulting in a gradual change to a mild southerly regime for Christmas. However, this is not fully supported by the ensembles- in fact the ensemble support for much of the British Isles hanging onto the cold air until well after Christmas is similar to what it was yesterday. It should also be noted that this morning's runs and ensembles strongly supported a delay of any breakdown until after Christmas. As long as low pressure moves from west to east instead of stalling out west as per UKMO/ECM, we should end up on the cold side of the block for a while.

If it breaks down Id like it to be christmas day, then Id almost certainly win my white christmas bet! :D

Edited by Jed Bickerdike
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Posted
  • Location: Wales, Valleys - 700ft ASL
  • Location: Wales, Valleys - 700ft ASL

18z is rubbish. Dry and when precip does finally come it's of rain. Probably a mild outlier though.

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Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent

I wouldn't say it was that bad, still relatively cold upper air temps and ground temps would still be low. We must be spoiled if we think its bad! (will probably be an outlier anyway)

This however:

PPVO89.png

:drinks:

Nice fax Ross. But it's so frustrating that you watch lows move west to east for years on end & then when you want them to......... :help:

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