General Cold Spell Discussion

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Not really expecting snow here. At the most a few snow flurries here and there. SC really is in the worst place possbile for snow. North and S/Easterners should be very excited though.

[Michael Winston]

UKMO have updated early and what they say looks interesting.......

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

Regards,

Mike

[Timmytour]

With regards to the BBC forecasts, I would take their temperature predictions with a pinch of salt.

I would, but there's barely enough to go around as it is!!!! :huh:

[steve1971]

not exspecting anything in the way of snow here some rainshowers yesterday think a few rain showers rest of week then becoming a lot milder by the weekend even back to above avrage by next week shame that this was the case but i did say this last week just the normal winter here mild wet windt .hope im wrong.

[dogs32]

I would, but there's barely enough to go around as it is!!!! :huh:

you fell for that one Mike...

I still dont think anyone for 100% knows exactly how bad or good its going to be

Though its exciting listening to all the banter,argument,s and expectation's of everyone...

[MP-R]

In the Dec 05 easterly that occured from Boxing Day to the 29th inclusive, I distinctly remember the models, the METO and the BBC suggesting temps during the day to be between 2 and 4C. They also suggested sleet and snow showers away from coastal areas. I lived barely 2 miles from the coast then and received over 10cms of snow with minor thawing on the 27th briefly in the middle of the day and no thawing at all on the following couple of days. Point is, the upcoming set up on the temp front looks at least a match for that one - so ppn should again be snow, even for some coastal areas. The SE benefits from being closer to the continental land mass in convective easterlies or north easterlies. Northerlies benefit NE coasts more with less fetch off the wider expanse of the north sea that is up there.

I don't think the models are especially reliable in convective set-ups in terms of ppn guidance. In my own little experience, it comes down to 'now casting' and watching the dutch radar in my case to see snow streamers coming in off the north sea

Most members will know what their local conditions are like and are best using those as a guide in terms of what to expect. I largely take the models in this respect with a pinch of salt - especially when it comes to predicting snow, which is always tricky anyway for computer models and forecasters alike.

Thanks very much for your reply, I'll bear that one in mind. I must say I arrived back on the 28th from a skiing holiday in Dec 05 so had no idea what was forecast and therefore everything was a surprise. Perhaps for some that's best :huh:

Having just watched the forecast, especially for the Midlands and Lincolnshire, there is mention of light rain turning snow on Tuesday night if the precipitations hangs arond long enough with a stronger easterly wind developing. Lots to look out for.

Edited December 14, 2009 by Michael Prys-Roberts

[andy_leics22]

Ok so, at the moment it looks like this cold spell for the Midlands area will generate possibly some sleet tonight, possibly some sleet tomorrow, maybe a few snow flurries on Wednesday and Thursday and then dry on Friday. Well call me an idiot but thats nothing to get excited about, I was expecting a lot more than this.

Must not complain because i'd rather see this than mild mush but I cannot believe how much this downgraded from what the models were showing on Friday and Saturday. Unbelievable.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

A 3 day Northerly would give us a shot at some snow showers. Should precipitation materialise then we have a good shot at some snow I think. But whilst it's time for the rest of the UK to sigh in relief and enjoy this. We need to hang in there a bit longer yet and have huge precautions.

Come on Andy ... We knew it was gonna happen! :nonono:Our only hope now is the Northerly which imo is still in FI!! Might start believing in that bit come Wednesday night/Thursday. If it hasn't gone tits up by then ...

Edited December 14, 2009 by *Stormforce~beka*

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Latest meto update is FANTASTIC for the North and Scotland but maybe not quite as good for the South,here it is.

Cloudy with rain, sleet or snow in the north throughout with some significant snowfall possible over high ground and hills in Scotland and northwestern England. Most southern and central parts should be dry and cold with bright or sunny spells at first, but cloud and rain, sleet or snow in the north will gradually spread southwards to many areas during the week. Temperatures are likely to be rather cold or cold throughout, especially overnight, with frosts and icy conditions in many parts. Over the Christmas period it is likely to remain unsettled in most areas with further outbreaks of rain, sleet or snow. It may become milder from the south towards the end of the period.

UK Outlook for Saturday 19 Dec 2009 to Monday 28 Dec 2009

Edited December 14, 2009 by happy days

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Any PPN will be a nuisance. I'd like a cold, frozen night to prepare the ground for possible PPN to come later, not a wet fridge.

[James M]

Latest meto update is FANTASTIC for the North and Scotland but maybe not quite as good for the South,here it is.

Cloudy with rain, sleet or snow in the north throughout with some significant snowfall possible over high ground and hills in Scotland and northwestern England. Most southern and central parts should be dry and cold with bright or sunny spells at first, but cloud and rain, sleet or snow in the north will gradually spread southwards to many areas during the week. Temperatures are likely to be rather cold or cold throughout, especially overnight, with frosts and icy conditions in many parts. Over the Christmas period it is likely to remain unsettled in most areas with further outbreaks of rain, sleet or snow. It may become milder from the south towards the end of the period.

UK Outlook for Saturday 19 Dec 2009 to Monday 28 Dec 2009

Significant snowfall for NW England eh? I know they're probably talking about Cumbria and such places but still...

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

UKMO have updated early and what they say looks interesting.......

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Regards,

Mike

Hi Mike

Its look like any breakdown is being put back to just after xmas now. Interesting, welcoming of course - and not surprising imo either

[Nick L]

Ok so, at the moment it looks like this cold spell for the Midlands area will generate possibly some sleet tonight, possibly some sleet tomorrow, maybe a few snow flurries on Wednesday and Thursday and then dry on Friday. Well call me an idiot but thats nothing to get excited about, I was expecting a lot more than this.

Must not complain because i'd rather see this than mild mush but I cannot believe how much this downgraded from what the models were showing on Friday and Saturday. Unbelievable.

Indeed, I hope those moaning Scots from a few days ago are now happy, they will get pasted. They always get everything!

I think cold and dry best sums up the next 7 days for those who don't live in the northern third of the country or on exposed coasts. Might be some wintry flurries elsewhere but like you said - not much to get excited about.

[Michael Winston]

Agreed, Happy days.

Here's the link again.......

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

All to play for.

Regards,

Mike.

[snowking]

Latest meto update is FANTASTIC for the North and Scotland but maybe not quite as good for the South,here it is.

Cloudy with rain, sleet or snow in the north throughout with some significant snowfall possible over high ground and hills in Scotland and northwestern England. Most southern and central parts should be dry and cold with bright or sunny spells at first, but cloud and rain, sleet or snow in the north will gradually spread southwards to many areas during the week. Temperatures are likely to be rather cold or cold throughout, especially overnight, with frosts and icy conditions in many parts. Over the Christmas period it is likely to remain unsettled in most areas with further outbreaks of rain, sleet or snow. It may become milder from the south towards the end of the period.

UK Outlook for Saturday 19 Dec 2009 to Monday 28 Dec 2009

I dont entirely see your point here Happy Days,

Bearing in mind they havn't specified (rather sensibly because they don't have a clue) what will fall where this forecast doesnt really tell us much, only that the potential for the wintryness remains in the run up to the xmas period

Kind Regards

SK

[Serendipity]

Ok so, at the moment it looks like this cold spell for the Midlands area will generate possibly some sleet tonight, possibly some sleet tomorrow, maybe a few snow flurries on Wednesday and Thursday and then dry on Friday. Well call me an idiot but thats nothing to get excited about, I was expecting a lot more than this.

Must not complain because i'd rather see this than mild mush but I cannot believe how much this downgraded from what the models were showing on Friday and Saturday. Unbelievable.

I agree Andy BUT how many times in the Midlands have we expected little and had a pleasant surprise? I think there could be some surprises for some people yet and I think you being more east midlands stand a chance of more snow than us...

[mezzacyclone]

Comparing the February "event" for a moment then we can see the source from a more northern latitude AND colder pool later this week >

Feb 1st 09 500hPa

whereas the latter of this week shows a favorable difference?

Fri 18th +105hrs 500hpa

Just maybe enough for low temp uppers to ensure any PPN falls as snow other than right on the coastline?

But to hell with it, I`m going with this dreadful toothache & history and looking at small accumulations locally in SYorks with cool/cold & cloudy conditions, part2 of a dry crisp northerly outbreak before an Atlantic battle of old?

On a winner either way then? :huh:

Edited December 14, 2009 by mezzacyclone

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Significant snowfall for NW England eh? I know they're probably talking about Cumbria and such places but still...

James they are talking about that front moving soth over the weekend.You could well get snowed in mate they

dont talk about significant snowfall for nothing.

Fnnily enough the update does bring altitude into the equation as i have been mentioning this morning.

It is not such a great update for the south though,dont like the rain sleet and snow bit.

:huh:

[winterfreak]

Why is it that this mornings 06z gfs run was being lauded from the rooftops and within the space of an hour or so it's now just 'cold' (not very) and very little snow apart from the North?:huh:

[glasgow-guy]

Indeed, I hope those moaning Scots from a few days ago are now happy, they will get pasted. They always get everything!

I think cold and dry best sums up the next 7 days for those who don't live in the northern third of the country or on exposed coasts. Might be some wintry flurries elsewhere but like you said - not much to get excited about.

:huh::huh::bad: lol moaning Scots

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Yea midlands tend to do quite well. And by the time it gets to us its all used up and just about get a dusting at best.:huh: IF we are that lucky!

[Weather-history]

Significant snowfall for NW England eh? I know they're probably talking about Cumbria and such places but still...

Suggests a NWly flow to me.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

James they are talking about that front moving soth over the weekend.You could well get snowed in mate they

dont talk about significant snowfall for nothing.

Fnnily enough the update does bring altitude into the equation as i have been mentioning this morning.

It is not such a great update for the south though,dont like the rain sleet and snow bit.

Yea this is exciting. Coming from the South ... and then turning to rain ... typical winter for us then! Enjoy it for the hour or so you might see it. If it doesn't come in the dead of night when you are asleep and you just wake up to rain lol.:huh:

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Suggests a NWly flow to me.

Does to me as well Mr Data.

And that my friend is GREAT news for us.

:huh:

[glasgow-guy]

Yea this is exciting. Coming from the South ... and then turning to rain ... typical winter for us then! Enjoy it for the hour or so you might see it. If it doesn't come in the dead of night when you are asleep and you just wake up to rain lol.:huh:

jeez half these posts need to be in the whining thread