General Cold Spell Discussion

[kold weather]

Front coming down from the north sea now wth rain coming into East anglia as well as the east coast. Probably got snow on the higher ground in the NW right now I'd imagine and the Pennines, a few cms up there from the looks of things is possible.

So remember the eastern side of the front is key, where the colder air overnight and into the morning meets with the eastern fringes of the front, expect there to be a good shot at sleet and snow, esp for the higher ground as well.

Going to be a very messy and complicated 48hrs coming up, snow is possible in many places though probably won't settle very well till the colder air really digs in from the east on Thursday/Friday.

[Snow Obsession]

Just had Wendy Hurrell on BBC London saying that the cold air meeting the drizzle tonight could turn to snow in the Chilterns. She also mentioned snow showers on Wednesday in this area.

Nw radar shows snow at the moment in High Wycombe but it is light drizzle as far as I can tell - however I don't live on one of the hills...

[Tim Bland]

BBC forecasts still playing things down. London forecast has a bit of sleet first thing around NW home counties then onto sleety showers Weds rain showers Thurs and clear blue skys on Fri.

Edited December 14, 2009 by Tim Bland

[Iceaxecrampon]

Remember it well and a good point that if you really want to experience weather at it's finest get out in to the hills

Where's that on your avatar jimben?

[Iceberg]

This isn't a wind up, but a period of snow at the circled location tomorrow between 9.00am and 12.00(lunchtime) is likely IMO.

Could be a couple of cm's localised.

[V for Very Cold]

Front coming down from the north sea now wth rain coming into East anglia as well as the east coast. Probably got snow on the higher ground in the NW right now I'd imagine and the Pennines, a few cms up there from the looks of things is possible.

So remember the eastern side of the front is key, where the colder air overnight and into the morning meets with the eastern fringes of the front, expect there to be a good shot at sleet and snow, esp for the higher ground as well.

Going to be a very messy and complicated 48hrs coming up, snow is possible in many places though probably won't settle very well till the colder air really digs in from the east on Thursday/Friday.

TBH Kold, far too mild and damp on the western pennines at the moment - think we'll need to wait at least24-36 hours to see the temperatures down to anywhere "interesting"

[Altohumorous]

You all yearn for the winters that we had back in the 60's and 70's and this present set up is starting just as they did, not a great deal happening, weather forecasts suggesting sleet at best away from the hills and then wham polar lows, stalling fronts, etc etc all came out of nowhere. Patience mon braves.

Is it a singular virtue?

[East Herts Snow]

I find the following site very useful with predicting where ppn is falling and direction it is moving (using the pressure chart and wind direction can give you a basic idea).

Also shows the current air temperature and especially important the dew points. For snow to fall, air temperature should not be higher than 2°C and the dew point has to be at least zero.

NB - In the UK, the heaviest falls of snow tend to occur when the air temperature is between zero and 2°C.

XCWeather

Edited December 14, 2009 by North Londoner

[Iceberg]

Yep and the NMM and the METO etc.... It's about the only area they all agree on. !. Pity I don't live there.

[WS Evolution]

Temperatures are generally higher then forecast in the north east which is a slight concern. Currently over 5C with a max of 3C forecast. Moderate rain at the moment and locally its forecast to turn to snow over the hills of the North York moors this afternoon.

[ickledoozer]

This isn't a wind up, but a period of snow at the circled location tomorrow between 9.00am and 12.00(lunchtime) is likely IMO.

Could be a couple of cm's localised.

Thats approxiamtely my area, temp depending, it's plausible, but this cold spell is taking longer to develop than was anticpiated a few days ago, its a location and temp lottery. At the moment it approx 5 degrees and dropping.

[Iceberg]

Yep a DP of -2 and air temp of +1 and I am a happy camper. Big white fluffy flakes.

[scottishandy]

A quick question on behalf of my Mother in Law!! How does this set up compare to last Feb? Is there much likelihood of travel disruption over the next few days?

She is planning to travel from Brum to Eastbourne and back, Wed to Sat. I'm not recommending this at the moment, what are others thoughts?

Cheers

Andy.

[La Bise]

Indeed, not much point getting all worked up in front of the computer screen and looking outside the window all the times for a flake. I've had my first snow back in early November, in the Yorkshire Dales...

[jimben]

Where's that on your avatar jimben?

Mousthwaite Comb near Sharp Edge on my fave hill of the lake's that you mentioned earlier, Blencathra. Easter a couple of years ago

[kold weather]

Yep I agree with Iceberg though I'd actually move that a little SE because fronts and systems like this tend to be a little further SE then the models expect typically. We shall see but any height wil lbe an advantage to the chances of snow overnight and into the early hours tomorrow morning.

The northern home counties look like they have the best shot...

Edited December 14, 2009 by kold weather

[East Herts Snow]

Yep a DP of -2 and air temp of +1 and I am a happy camper. Big white fluffy flakes.

A good prediction there Iceberg, and agree with you re: tomorrows snow chance.

I feel the area affected maybe a bit larger and affecting more areas SE, due to uplifting when the ppn hits hillier areas in Buckinghamshire, Bedfordshire and possibly Hertfordshire (The Chilterns and East Anglian Heights). Altitude as ever will always help with these areas rising between 100m to 250m ASL.

Update - Sorry kold Weather has already stated this.

Edited December 14, 2009 by North Londoner

[kold weather]

Altitude is going to br very important indeed.

Worth watching the radar from now on as well when it comes to this possible event. I'd expect snow will struggle to settle away from higher ground as profiles do look marginal but we shall see, the fact that it'll come down overnight is a big advantage...

Also worth watching tomorrow eveing as well as it clears away further south...unreal that I leave chichester and they probably have a better chanc eof snow from this then I do right now!

Ah well all fun!

[Zenarcher]

I have just updated my blog explaining cold weather, storms and rain and of course a good bit of snow. http://forum.netweather.tv/index.php?app=blog&module=display&section=blog&blogid=139&showentry=3931

Hope you find it useful

[East Herts Snow]

Altitude is going to br very important indeed.

Worth watching the radar from now on as well when it comes to this possible event. I'd expect snow will struggle to settle away from higher ground as profiles do look marginal but we shall see, the fact that it'll come down overnight is a big advantage...

Also worth watching tomorrow eveing as well as it clears away further south...unreal that I leave chichester and they probably have a better chanc eof snow from this then I do right now!

Ah well all fun!

If anyone deserves the snow, its you kold weather! Definately one of the best posters on here and always provides detailed and well balanced analysis of the charts, but geographically your not in one of the favoured snow 'hot' spots (great oxymoron!).

Unless the fabled channel low forms of course.......!

Edited December 14, 2009 by North Londoner

[Neilsouth]

What time are we due snow in the south east corner? , not exact time

Edited December 14, 2009 by neilsouth

[Iceberg]

BBC News 24 forecast has just been updated - now talking about a period of snow developing in the SE Midlands tomoz PM, then extending into the rest of the Midlands and perhaps the SW overnight, with a cover possible by Weds morning.

I think it will be an increasing trend of the METO to slowly increase the snow risk 24 hrs or so before the event, play it safe and then give people a bit of warning.

[Snowman15]

ITV Weather about half hour ago reckons light rain/sleet tonight at temps between 0c and -2c!?

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I think it will be an increasing trend of the METO to slowly increase the snow risk 24 hrs or so before the event, play it safe and then give people a bit of warning.

You might get something out of this Iceberg! Fingers crossed!

[toggerob]

Rain is now turning to Sleet anywhere south of a line from Blackpool-Hull. As daytime temps drop throughout the night I'd expect this band to turn increasingly more wintry, especially on its southern edge (to be less biased towards my location) although higher parts of the Pennines will surely see some accumulations obviously from height variations.