Ireland Cold Spell Discussion

[shuggee]

Please use this thread to have a good old chat about the prospects for something wintry in Ireland

[fear sneachta]

I wonder if Ireland will benefit from any of this snow?

Edited December 14, 2009 by fear sneachta

[mountain shadow]

I've asked to have it changed to Ireland.

I reckon eastern parts could see something mid week, then the main event over the weekend, which 'could'be something special.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Oh you are getting me excited Mountain Shadow!!

Agreed change it to Ireland

[shuggee]

All changed for youse

[mountain shadow]

http://209.197.11.140/c9s4a5k3/cds/gfsimages/gfs.20091214/12/96/h850t850eu.png?dopvhost=charts.netweather.tv&doppl=841a626ccf3c0159cf6c01091ea90a42cf6c01f6&dopsig=3c8ec704c15cc9d1bba3ff417b83c02e

Already into the colder air with a few snow flurries and showers around. Look North though. In the 6z it battered us, lets hope for the same in the 12z.

[fear sneachta]

I've asked to have it changed to Ireland.

I reckon eastern parts could see something mid week, then the main event over the weekend, which 'could'be something special.

Thanks Mountain Shadow. What parts do you think are most at risk? East Ulster and Leinster?

[mountain shadow]

Thanks Mountain Shadow. What parts do you think are most at risk? East Ulster and Leinster?

Initially eastern counties of Ulster and Leinster.

As the winds switch north, then Donegall and most of Ulster will do well initially. However if the low is as potent as expected, snow could be expected anywhere, although the further south and central you are the less chance you have.

12 o'clock saturday has most of Ireland in a milder sector, however look at that really bitter air following. i wouldn't worry to much about the mild sector as I reckon it will filter out quicker closer to the time and if you have altitude shouldn't make much difference.

http://209.197.11.181/c9s4a5k3/cds/gfsimages/gfs.20091214/12/120/h850t850eu.png?dopvhost=charts.netweather.tv&doppl=841a626ccf3c07a8cf6c07f81ea90cb3cf6c07ca&dopsig=83a8bf960f3b964a7382207637e06494

http://209.197.11.95/c9s4a5k3/cds/gfsimages/gfs.20091214/12/132/prectypeuktopo.png?dopvhost=charts.netweather.tv&doppl=841a626ccf3c0419&dopsig=4e97df82ee04896f09a3088f1e81496f

This is the marker for me. Saturday night into Sunday, could be the beginning of a snow fest that hasn't been seen in years. In later runs lets see if this gets put back or actually gets closer to fruition.

[fear sneachta]

Sounds great. However, having looked at John Holmes' forecast, the temperatures in Ireland seem fairly high (in the snow context), even as late as Friday and this does concern me somewhat.

It looks as though any showers between now and then will be of rain or sleet.

I agree that later on in the weekend is the interesting bit.

Edited December 14, 2009 by fear sneachta

[mountain shadow]

Sounds great. However, having looked at John Holmes' forecast, the temperatures in Ireland seem fairly high (in the snow context), even as late as Friday and this does concern me somewhat.

It looks as though any showers between now and then will be of rain or sleet.

I agree that later on in the weekend is the interesting bit.

For sea level maybe. Higher up parts and away from the coast could be snow.

This 12z run is the best you could possibly hope for in Donegall, Londonderry/Derry, Antrim and Down.

[frostyjoe]

For sea level maybe. Higher up parts and away from the coast could be snow.

This 12z run is the best you could possibly hope for in Donegall, Londonderry/Derry, Antrim and Down.

so i could get snow from friday onwards what about temps wise???

[fear sneachta]

Don't know if you saw this!! 'Tis a bit of fun!

White Christmas ahead, says postman

A postman renowned for predicting the weather using ancient methods has insisted Ireland is heading for a white Christmas.

Michael Gallagher, who learned his age-old technique from the last generations living high in Donegal's Blue Stack mountains, uses nature and the behaviour of animals to make his forecast.

The 61-year-old, who lives in the remote Glenfin Valley, said all the signs pointed to snow on its way. "We are definitely on our way to a white Christmas," he said.

More scientific meteorological forecasters would only say snow was possible during an expected cold spell coming in this week - but they cannot tell how long it will last.

Mr Gallagher, who says his methods were relied on for hundreds of years before television weather forecasters, will raise the hopes of those dreaming of a white Christmas.

"Predicting one day precisely is very hard to pull off, but I'm almost definite - about 90%," he said. "When the sun shines on to the (Blue Stack) mountains, and down to the lowlands it's turning a reddish-brown colour, that's a sign of snow.

"The sheep and the cattle are going mad too, shaking themselves, coming in off the mountains and coming to the gate. And I noticed the other day, the fox is getting very busy, looking for hens and howling at two in the morning.

"There's a hunger in everything, they want to be fed because they know what is coming. These are 'moving signs' that things are going to happen."

A postman for 42 years, Mr Gallagher shot into the public spotlight two years ago when he lifted the nation's sodden spirits with his unorthodox prediction of an end to incessant summer rain.

Massive interest in his old techniques and a trip to China - with his daughter, who won a silver medal in the Special Olympics - where he noted many old traditions survive, prompted him to complete a book this year, Traditional Weather Signs.

http://www.independent.ie/breaking-news/national-news/white-christmas-ahead-says-postman-1973381.html

Edited December 14, 2009 by fear sneachta

[Altohumorous]

Dia dhuit, hello, failte and wilkommen to all!

Jeez lads and lasses, a week ago I was in Frankfurt, if only it was this week! Still, looking on the bright side, come the weekend we might actually have a better chance of snow here.

My take on this week is that Ireland comes off badly in terms of snow at least, we are nearest the high pressure through out, something very unexpected would have to happen. There just isnt the potency nor the instability in that easterly (IF) when it finally arrives. So maybe some wintery showers between about thursday night and saturday morning in east Leinster and Ulster.

The weekend throws up a huge debate, as to how much will that northerly, and the instabilities/troughing with it penetrate south, and to some extent west? Again the high may scupper us, so at the moment I'll hold fire on that, too far out, Ulster looks to have a very good chance of something significant, and maybe some snow showers into parts of Connaught especially in a northwesterly.

That warm sector has to be shunted too for us to be certain of snow rather than sleet at or near sea level, and that will also depend on the penetration southwards of the trough and its cold front(s)

Whatever happens looks like a gradually increasingly cold week, with hard frosts in many areas by the end, probably lasting a few days then. Let's enjoy, it makes a fantastic change from what we've had most of the last 10-15 years!

[mountain shadow]

so i could get snow from friday onwards what about temps wise???

It's really Saturday night onwards for you with the Arctic front moving south. You won't have to worry about temperatures. It will be snow to pretty much all levels and Coleraine will be in prime position for a hammering.

The UK Met 12z backs up the GFS 12z, we are game on. Remember this showing as beginning Saturday night.

[Altohumorous]

Speaking of old weather signs, I've seen alot of geese around here lately, I know we always get them but I'm sure there's been more than usual. Also I saw alot of seagulls (together with crows!) feeding on some scraps near where I live, havent seen so many seagulls up so close in such a built up area and I find it strange they would allow crows to feed with them

A chilly day here today, after a fairly cold night. A friend reports a sharp frost last night in Castletownbere ( a very sheltered, Atlantic dominated spot) So here we go wiht the action, this is it, the speculation can now be tried out for real!

By the way, are all these area threads a kind of competition for most posts? So far we are about 4th, The Southeast of England is running away with it, only the Scots giving them any sort of a run for their money. Do the SOuth Central English actually know that's where they live? Perhaps some of them are posting in the SE thread, so we could get them docked posts!

Edited December 14, 2009 by Altohumorous

[The watcher]

I'm actually thinking that Irish Sea convection during the Easterly will be more potent than some people think.

The real risk is of course Friday/Saturday/Sunday...when most areas will see something wintry of the sort with a good chance of Widespread snowfall and accumulations overnight Saturday. Some areas may wake up to a dusting Saturday morning, others a little more, but the focus on severe cold seems to rest on the approachment of weeks end.

[frostyjoe]

It's really Saturday night onwards for you with the Arctic front moving south. You won't have to worry about temperatures. It will be snow to pretty much all levels and Coleraine will be in prime position for a hammering.

The UK Met 12z backs up the GFS 12z, we are game on. Remember this showing as beginning Saturday night.

ok thx so we should be expecting cold temps and snow from pretty much thrusday night onwards, will the showers be frequent its looks so..... how come meto are forecasting 7c max for here on friday!

[Altohumorous]

I'm actually thinking that Irish Sea convection during the Easterly will be more potent than some people think.

The real risk is of course Friday/Saturday/Sunday...when most areas will see something wintry of the sort with a good chance of Widespread snowfall and accumulations overnight Saturday. Some areas may wake up to a dusting Saturday morning, others a little more, but the focus on severe cold seems to rest on the approachment of weeks end.

Only if that colder easterly air gets in while the instability is still there. And that's assuming both of those things actually come to pass, which cant be taken for granted, still 3 days at least before we'll know for sure, there's alot of uncertainty still, and it's a marginal event at best anyway by the looks, not a blast, rather a messy, long-drawn out struggle to get that trough and the colder air to come across us, very possible that the high will block it more (same with the northerly later), that would be my main fear the way the trends are looking.

If the very cold air can get in from the northeast by friday, then as you say, any instability that may still be around could become more potent over the Irish Sea, that would be a massive bonus if it came off.

Regarding the temperatures issue, we also must take into account that the sea is still relatively warm in December, and it's warmer now than it would have been globally the last time we had a chance of cold like this. That factor seems to result in things like more shortwaves, and disruptions of cold air being advected towards the margins of the colder areas of the hemisphere. There is also the old problem that we always have in these situations, that of the difficulty getting precipitation in very cold conditions

Edited December 14, 2009 by Altohumorous

[fear sneachta]

192 h. Imagine if this came off!

[snowfart]

I hope connacht will get some snow this weekend! but is it right that the eastern part will get most of it?

Edited December 14, 2009 by snowfart

[fear sneachta]

I hope Connaught will get some snow this weekend! but is it right that the eastern part will get most of it?

Connacht wont get any till later on Sunday and early next week, if and when the winds turn to a NNW or NW direction.

http://91.121.94.83/...fs-2-132.png?12

Ulster looks as though it's in for a pasting over a few days. The rest of the island will get some snow too, with north Leinster and especially north Connacht doing quite well too.

Edited December 14, 2009 by fear sneachta

[frostyjoe]

Connacht wont get any till later on Sunday and early next week, if and when the winds turn to a NNW or NW direction.

http://91.121.94.83/...fs-2-132.png?12

Ulster looks as though it's in for a pasting over a few days. The rest of the island will get some snow too, with north Leinster and especially north Connacht doing quite well too.

yes yes yes im very excited though thrusdays nights snowfall is the first expected snow itll all downgrade!!!!

[The watcher]

I don't see anything in the models that should really dissapoint anyone from Ireland....still a very good chance of some Irish Sea convection with the -10's clipping the Eastern Ireland areas before the Northerly, although currently the SST's are bringing very mild conditions to me and others on the Eastern side now, once the cold airmass digs in the SST's effect will be limited to adding 1/2c to the overall max temps. Any snowfall/showers will bring this down again.

[Altohumorous]

192 h. Imagine if this came off!

I think though that comes up from the south? Might not have enough cold in it if it takes up that position. Need it slightly further south and east to set up a battleground situation between the cold over us and the atlantic trough

[snowfart]

Connacht wont get any till later on Sunday and early next week, if and when the winds turn to a NNW or NW direction.

http://91.121.94.83/...fs-2-132.png?12

Ulster looks as though it's in for a pasting over a few days. The rest of the island will get some snow too, with north Leinster and especially north Connacht doing quite well too.

YES sounds good for me!! hopefully we will get few cm's

thanks for reply