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Ireland Cold Spell Discussion


shuggee

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

Have no fear the snow is coming.

ECM 12Z, UKMET 12Z and now the GFS 18z show great potential for the Emerald Isle.

18z upgrades snow chances for eastern parts Thursday into Friday, with the Saturday northerly arriving ealier with snow on and off pretty much anywhere.

The low pressure driving the northerly sitting to the north of Scotland could not be better for us, asthe colder air is on the western flank drawing the coldest air from the arctic.

Donegal, Derry, Antrim & Down will fare best but snow can be expected anywhere.

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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

I would have to disagree with you, but time will tell.

I'm 35 and have seen many many Met Eireann bad calls, but as I say time will tell

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Posted
  • Location: Derry
  • Location: Derry

I would have to disagree with you, but time will tell.

I'm 35 and have seen many many Met Eireann bad calls, but as I say time will tell

Met Eireann dont seem to be too enthusiastic about the whole thing really atm which is a disappiontment. Hopefully in a day or two their thinking will change for the better. But as you rightly say time will tell.

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrrelstown, NW Dublin 95 m above sea level
  • Location: Tyrrelstown, NW Dublin 95 m above sea level

Met Eireann dont seem to be too enthusiastic about the whole thing really atm which is a disappiontment. Hopefully in a day or two their thinking will change for the better. But as you rightly say time will tell.

When are they ever entusiastic about anything. Their forecasters are the dullest people on TV. I think we will have to wait until thursday or friday before nailing this on the head even though i can't control myself looking at the charts. Have been so many dissapointments in the past. The thing that exites me the most is that its only December and we are in with a chance of a very cold and snowy spell of weather. God knows what January and February will bring.

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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

Met Eireann dont seem to be too enthusiastic about the whole thing really atm which is a disappiontment. Hopefully in a day or two their thinking will change for the better. But as you rightly say time will tell.

When are they ever entusiastic about anything. Their forecasters are the dullest people on TV. I think we will have to wait until thursday or friday before nailing this on the head even though i can't control myself looking at the charts. Have been so many dissapointments in the past. The thing that exites me the most is that its only December and we are in with a chance of a very cold and snowy spell of weather. God knows what January and February will bring.

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Posted
  • Location: Derry
  • Location: Derry

I was really pleased with the snow we got this year. We had lying snow for 8 days in a row and alot of ice days. Can't really complin but i've a feeling that come the weekend we could see something special.

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Posted
  • Location: Head in the clouds somewhere near Avondale, West Auckland
  • Weather Preferences: Storm-force northeasterly(with a high tide!).Blizzards.Sunny summer
  • Location: Head in the clouds somewhere near Avondale, West Auckland

a balmy 8c here this evening so things would need to cool down considerably. im not convinced the cold easterly airmass will penetrate far enough west for us.

Lads & lasses, isn't it great to have our own little thread, wha? :)

Today there was a warm sector crossing within the weak trough, tomorrow will be a bit colder and tomorrow night very cold, so wednesday will be noticeably colder again. In theory!

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrrelstown, NW Dublin 95 m above sea level
  • Location: Tyrrelstown, NW Dublin 95 m above sea level

Lads & lasses, isn't it great to have our own little thread, wha? :)

Today there was a warm sector crossing within the weak trough, tomorrow will be a bit colder and tomorrow night very cold, so wednesday will be noticeably colder again. In theory!

Despite that, I thought today felt cold, in Dublin even if it wasn't on paper. There wasn't even puff of wind either. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Head in the clouds somewhere near Avondale, West Auckland
  • Weather Preferences: Storm-force northeasterly(with a high tide!).Blizzards.Sunny summer
  • Location: Head in the clouds somewhere near Avondale, West Auckland

Have no fear the snow is coming.

ECM 12Z, UKMET 12Z and now the GFS 18z show great potential for the Emerald Isle.

18z upgrades snow chances for eastern parts Thursday into Friday, with the Saturday northerly arriving ealier with snow on and off pretty much anywhere.

The low pressure driving the northerly sitting to the north of Scotland could not be better for us, asthe colder air is on the western flank drawing the coldest air from the arctic.

Donegal, Derry, Antrim & Down will fare best but snow can be expected anywhere.

I'm not sure I agree with what you say about the low coming from the Arctic, it may give us very cold air, but that air is often very dry (coming from The Arctic/Greenland). It's only close to the low itself that the air is unstable enough for precipitation, unless other features develop (due to the very cold air crossing relatively warm ocean) and move over us, however these other features are often also a problem in that they stall the progress of the cold air going south. With the higher pressure close by I'd say it's only the north half and the east of Scotland and England that will do well out of that low, with some scattered snow showers in the North of Ireland, mainly near coasts, northern coasts could get quite a few showers.

If the "other features" form and run south, this would be our best chance to see significant and more widespread snow. The easterly looks interesting for 24 hours, as the trough moves, but the trough is weak, pressure relatively high, the air becoming increasingly dry, and the isobars not tightened enough to drive the trough and the cold through as much as we would need to get any significant snow.

That's my take on it all, sorry it's sceptical, but that's from many years of many disappointments, I prefer to be realistic. As ever, of course, hope I'm very very wrong (in the right way!)

Edited by Altohumorous
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Posted
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)
  • Weather Preferences: Any weather will do.
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)

Your right to an extent Alto, but I'm afraid your underestimating the shower potential.

I tried to find a satellite image of a Northerly to show you but cannot find one...

If you can find one and see for yourself, in LP from the North, once the Cold front passes, behind it on the Infrared satellite you will notice a huge swathe of convective cells, almost pattern like to what we would see in a mackerel sky but on a larger scale and from above (obviously being a satellite image), these my friend are frequent moderate - heavy showers which penetrate well inland. They form because of the LP's long seatrack down between Svalbard and Greenland, down the North Sea. Because of the cold uppers behind the Cold front the length of time it takes for the LP to get here is more than enough time to allow quite severe instability to occur because of the depth of cold and where the cold has come from, otherwise we would not get a cold front at all. Once the cold takes over these showers continue and sometimes increase in frequency because of the cold airmasses presence being longer. I can pretty much guarantee that should this Northerly be as potent and cold as currently forecast, everyone will see some snowfall, even better, I guarantee that forecasts for Saturday night and Sunday will be something in the form of, Snow showers everywhere, most frequent in the North where bands will merge to give longer periods of snow at times.

RTE, BBC, whatever forecasters are forecasting, won't stick their necks out or be enthusiastic for the simple reason that Nothing severe is set in stone until pretty much 24hrs away.

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Posted
  • Location: Head in the clouds somewhere near Avondale, West Auckland
  • Weather Preferences: Storm-force northeasterly(with a high tide!).Blizzards.Sunny summer
  • Location: Head in the clouds somewhere near Avondale, West Auckland

Your right to an extent Alto, but I'm afraid your underestimating the shower potential.

I tried to find a satellite image of a Northerly to show you but cannot find one...

If you can find one and see for yourself, in LP from the North, once the Cold front passes, behind it on the Infrared satellite you will notice a huge swathe of convective cells, almost pattern like to what we would see in a mackerel sky but on a larger scale and from above (obviously being a satellite image), these my friend are frequent moderate - heavy showers which penetrate well inland. They form because of the LP's long seatrack down between Svalbard and Greenland, down the North Sea. Because of the cold uppers behind the Cold front the length of time it takes for the LP to get here is more than enough time to allow quite severe instability to occur because of the depth of cold and where the cold has come from, otherwise we would not get a cold front at all. Once the cold takes over these showers continue and sometimes increase in frequency because of the cold airmasses presence being longer. I can pretty much guarantee that should this Northerly be as potent and cold as currently forecast, everyone will see some snowfall, even better, I guarantee that forecasts for Saturday night and Sunday will be something in the form of, Snow showers everywhere, most frequent in the North where bands will merge to give longer periods of snow at times.

RTE, BBC, whatever forecasters are forecasting, won't stick their necks out or be enthusiastic for the simple reason that Nothing severe is set in stone until pretty much 24hrs away.

Watcher, I do understand all of that, but our discussion is about whether that cold air and the instability will penetrate far enough south to hit Ireland seriously and bring significant and possibly widespread snow (other than Ulster, which if things dont go better than some models currently predicting, would mainly be hit on the north and west coast), whereas the trough itself coming down the North Sea is in the right place to hit north and east Scotland, and the east of England.

The less unstable air to the west of the trough (that heading our way) needs to penetrate far enough south and remain quite potent in strength in order for the showers to remain heavy, to penetrate, and for other features to form and come over us.

When are they ever entusiastic about anything. Their forecasters are the dullest people on TV. I think we will have to wait until thursday or friday before nailing this on the head even though i can't control myself looking at the charts. Have been so many dissapointments in the past. The thing that exites me the most is that its only December and we are in with a chance of a very cold and snowy spell of weather. God knows what January and February will bring.

Imagine, this was our cold spell for the winter and then Jan & Feb turned out to be mild! :(

Maybe I shouldn't even put that idea out in the universe!! :(

Edited by Altohumorous
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Posted
  • Location: Co.Tyrone
  • Location: Co.Tyrone

Morning Folks

So given this mornings models are we more hopeful for the cold spell to extend past Christmas and has our snow chances increased any?

Does anyone fancy a festive christmas compo by guessing the lowest tempature (day and night) for their area over the next week, the winner will win our adulation and bask in the smugness of being right.

I go for a chilly daylight temp of -1 and night -7 in the mountains of Pomeroydrinks.gif

Edited by Pomeroysnow
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Posted
  • Location: Coleraine,Macosquin,County Londonderry, Northern Ireland
  • Location: Coleraine,Macosquin,County Londonderry, Northern Ireland

ok is this snow stikll possible from thrusday night onwards in the north??? then a so called pasting on saturday night how much would that involve? and what temps can we expect from thrus in the north?

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin, ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow , thunderstorms and wind
  • Location: Dublin, ireland

When are they ever entusiastic about anything. Their forecasters are the dullest people on TV.

Hi fear sneachta,

I love our Irish Met office weather forecasters.

Seriously, whilst we here have been trying to put some detail on what will happen for the last 2 weeks the only thing we have got correct that there will be a cold/very cold run up to Christmas, This scenario has been changing by the day and still is too close to call for detail.

Can you imagine if they even said yesterday or the day before that there would be a wintry outbreak especially in the east. Now it looks like the north is the more likely place to get a good blast from this setup. This could also change in the next 24 hours.

I think our met people and the UK met office are right not to call it too early. We can afford to make mistakes they cant.

Not to dampen peoples spirits too much i really do hope we get a good pasting but dont set your expectations too high.

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Posted
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)
  • Weather Preferences: Any weather will do.
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)

Fancy that, my Snow risk for Thursday (overnight Wednesday - Thursday) and Friday is 85%, between moderate and light falls.

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Posted
  • Location: Head in the clouds somewhere near Avondale, West Auckland
  • Weather Preferences: Storm-force northeasterly(with a high tide!).Blizzards.Sunny summer
  • Location: Head in the clouds somewhere near Avondale, West Auckland

Fancy that, my Snow risk for Thursday (overnight Wednesday - Thursday) and Friday is 85%, between moderate and light falls.

Sounds very promising!

One more thing about the showers in the northerly, one of the reasons I'm very skeptical about it and why maybe you're more enthusiastic is that it is the middle of winter. If it were March/April/May or October I would be more positive, because in those months the strength of the sun aids a convective aspect to showers over land as the air moves across. In mid-winter it relies almost entirely on the strength of penetration of the flow and the relative instability of the air. As we have seen time and time again, once this flow comes south over much warmer ocean, and once it hits land, in mid-winter it tends to lose alot of potency and instability.

As you live further north you probably have much better experiences of showers from a northerly (though maybe not a northwesterly!) than us further south and east and people inland (west/northwest facing coasts can do much better)

And finally, we have to see the high pressure over us decline/move away quick enough/at the right time

Edited by Altohumorous
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Posted
  • Location: Co.Tyrone
  • Location: Co.Tyrone

Met Eireann still not holding out for much snow for Friday/Saturday

15 December 2009 11:39

Today Some bright or short sunny spells today, but cloudy periods also with some showers, these mainly near eastern and southeastern coasts. Cool, top temperatures between 6 and 9 degrees.

Tonight

Dry in many areas overnight with broken cloud and clear spells, but a few showers are still likely along parts of the east coast, and also around dawn along the north coast. A cold night, with frost in places where skies stay clear. Lowest temperatures between minus 1 and plus 4 degrees. hr.gif

Tomorrow

Tomorrow, Wednesday, will be a cold day. Early frost clearing with a few bright or short sunny spells, but cloud will tend to increase as the day progresses. Some rain is likely along northern coasts with some showers elsewhere, these especially along eastern coasts. Temperatures will reach 5 to 8 degrees in light to moderate northeast winds

Outlook

A few wintry showers will persist during Thursday in coastal counties of the east and southeast while the rest of the country will have a mainly dry day with some bright or sunny periods. A rather cold day everywhere with temperatures only reaching between 4 and 7 degrees in a moderate east to northeast breeze. Sharp or severe frost Thursday night. Friday should be a dry day in all but some coastal regions of the southeast, where the odd wintry shower is still likely. There should be some bright or sunny periods also, but it will be a cold day - temperatures only struggling up to between 2 and 5 degrees and the overnight frost may be slow to clear in places. Winds light or moderate northeast will gradually back northwest. Very cold and frosty Friday night. Temperatures will be a little higher on Saturday, though it will still feel very cold in a freshening west to northwest wind. Cloud too, will be on the increase from the north and will bring scattered outbreaks of rain or sleet, possibly preceded in places by a little snow, especially over high ground

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Posted
  • Location: Head in the clouds somewhere near Avondale, West Auckland
  • Weather Preferences: Storm-force northeasterly(with a high tide!).Blizzards.Sunny summer
  • Location: Head in the clouds somewhere near Avondale, West Auckland

That warm sector at the start of the northerly seems to be more significant than I would have expected, and I also assume that the sea temperatures are having a big impact on the whole thing. That said, we have seen cold snaps recently in November giving snow in places so it's a surprise that the cold from these current air masses seems so moderated, even though I expected it to be more moderated than was being suggested in the discussions on Netweather over the past week or so.

Certainly looks like a significant downgrade on what had been considered to be possible, and even forecasted to be likely

Edited by Altohumorous
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Posted
  • Location: Dublin, ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow , thunderstorms and wind
  • Location: Dublin, ireland

Certainly looks like a significant downgrade on what had been considered to be possible, and even forecasted to be likely

lets take it as a practice run for Jan/Feb

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Guest North Sea Snow Convection

lets take it as a practice run for Jan/Feb

Hi John, and to all you Irelanders, hope you are all wellsmile.gif

Whatever happens this time around, I think seeing it as a practice run is not a bad idea. I started off a week or two ago thinking that and not much has changed. After a milder blip perhaps after xmas and New year, there is a good chance I think of a proper reload through January and perhaps into Feb too. Long way to go yet!!biggrin.gif

A great xmas to you alldrinks.gif

Edited by North Sea Snow Convection
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