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Ireland Cold Spell Discussion


shuggee

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Posted
  • Location: Head in the clouds somewhere near Avondale, West Auckland
  • Weather Preferences: Storm-force northeasterly(with a high tide!).Blizzards.Sunny summer
  • Location: Head in the clouds somewhere near Avondale, West Auckland

People are right to be positive, and I'm hopeful too that the rest of winter might give us something special.

Have to talk about the present though, it's the fallout of an intensely discussed and forecast spell of weather in very rare synoptics. Better out than in! With that in mind, I've just looked at the UKMO T120 and I'm afraid it shows the cold front held up again, pressure remaining high here on saturday at least.

I wonder is this a product of two different cold airmasses colliding, a cold trying to move into another cold? It's ironic that the northerly blocking that we so much want to stay, and which is being forecast in FI to disappear quickly, looks like what is the main factor scuppering our chances of anything exciting from these cold airmasses/weather systems.

I have to keep reminding myself - it's nothing new! This kind of thing happened often in the 70s and 80s at least

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin, ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow , thunderstorms and wind
  • Location: Dublin, ireland

Hi John, and to all you Irelanders, hope you are all wellsmile.gif

Whatever happens this time around, I think seeing it as a practice run is not a bad idea. I started off a week or two ago thinking that and not much has changed. After a milder blip perhaps after xmas and New year, there is a good chance I think of a proper reload through January and perhaps into Feb too. Long way to go yet!!biggrin.gif

A great xmas to you alldrinks.gif

Hi Tamara,

And a very merry Christmas to you too and all my friends on NW!

Like you I have seen our expectations rise and then fall closer to the time of a snow event, so its a very much like feet firmly on the ground.

I am delighted that your area seems really well placed for great snowfalls Friday and Saturday. Enjoy and report back.

Thank you for your great contributions as usual to NW and I always follow them with great interest.

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Posted
  • Location: Derry
  • Location: Derry

All doom and gloom on here today. I'm no model watcher but things were looking so promising last night. What has changed today. As seen over the past week or two things can change dramatically so i'm keeping an open mind for this weekend. Anything can happen. Looking forward to the rest of the model outputs today. What times do the different models roll out?

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin, ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow , thunderstorms and wind
  • Location: Dublin, ireland

Hi Ronan,

Here you go:

Availability Time Issuer Time Base

03:30 - 04:45 GFS 00z

06:00 ECM 00z

06:30 NOGAPS 00z

06:30 UKMO 00z

09:30 - 10:45 GFS 06z

10:30 FAX 00z

15:30 - 16:45 GFS 12z

17:30 UKMO 12z

18:00 ECM 12z

18:30 NOGAPS 12z

19:00 JMA 12z

21:30 - 22:45 GFS 18z

22:30 FAX 12z

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Posted
  • Location: Derry
  • Location: Derry

Thanks very much for that John. So do you think we will see much from this northerly at the weekend? Feeling very disheartened today from all this downgrade talk!! Sure have known that its the norm for our wee country!

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Posted
  • Location: Coleraine,Macosquin,County Londonderry, Northern Ireland
  • Location: Coleraine,Macosquin,County Londonderry, Northern Ireland

Don't lose hope yet Ronan

seeriosuly this is a disasterous downgrade with temps no downgrade but on saturday metcheck are forecasting rain all day rather than snow like before typical!!!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin, ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow , thunderstorms and wind
  • Location: Dublin, ireland

Thanks very much for that John. So do you think we will see much from this northerly at the weekend? Feeling very disheartened today from all this downgrade talk!! Sure have known that its the norm for our wee country!

Hi Ronan,

If you have a read under "Snowbies" posts in the irish weather forum http://www.irelandsw...index.php/topic,715.105.html you will find a lot of realism about the irish situation.

Part of the problem as I see it is that we are involved a lot in Netweather and it is a very different scene in the UK compared to Ireland. We have a more moderate climate compared to the UK and there are not many parts of our land far from the sea.

I have been weather watching for all my life, no spring chicken me, and everything needs to be in the right place for snow. At least you life up north and always have a better chance of snow. An unstable northerly with winds sourced from far north will deliver for you anytime from now until March.

In the east of Ireland here in Dublin I have only seen snow delivered on a polar low, or an easterly sourced form the cold continent and this is important, it needs to be a very strong easterly, not a slack flow or if we are very lucky like 7th Jan 1982 where we has easterlies for a few days and a low pushed up slowly from the south and stalled to the south and bingo!!

So in summary, keep the head and be patient and good things will come to those who wait :pardon:

Edited by John Cox
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Posted
  • Location: Derry
  • Location: Derry

Looks to be an upgrade again. Suday looking to be a very snowy day again. I swear i'm gonna have a heart attack by the time this cold spell is over!! The precip charts look amazing! :cold:;)

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Posted
  • Location: Coleraine,Macosquin,County Londonderry, Northern Ireland
  • Location: Coleraine,Macosquin,County Londonderry, Northern Ireland

Looks to be an upgrade again. Suday looking to be a very snowy day again. I swear i'm gonna have a heart attack by the time this cold spell is over!! The precip charts look amazing! :lol: :lol:

yea and the xc weather has a max of 0c on sunday and snow all day!!!!!!! from thrusday maxes will be 2c and on their way dow!:rolleyes: cnt wait but there will be probably be a downgrade..... i wonder if the metos 7c maxes for saturday will have changed to 2c? by tomorrow.

Edited by frostyjoe
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Posted
  • Location: Derry
  • Location: Derry

I can't see there being much of a downgrade now. By late thursday we should have a better idea as it will be in the more reliable timeframe. I would give ourselves in the NW a 50-60% chance of seeing some decent snowfall on sunday. Hopefully we will have scenes like this by the start of next week. My dog enjoys the snow as much as i do. :lol:

post-1251-12609002062555_thumb.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Coleraine,Macosquin,County Londonderry, Northern Ireland
  • Location: Coleraine,Macosquin,County Londonderry, Northern Ireland

I can't see there being much of a downgrade now. By late thursday we should have a better idea as it will be in the more reliable timeframe. I would give ourselves in the NW a 50-60% chance of seeing some decent snowfall on sunday. Hopefully we will have scenes like this by the start of next week. My dog enjoys the snow as much as i do. :lol:

how decent would this snow be and concidering the temps will be around 1c on thrusday and nw are predicting snow showers may be get a covering on thrusday??

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Posted
  • Location: Derry
  • Location: Derry

how decent would this snow be and concidering the temps will be around 1c on thrusday and nw are predicting snow showers may be get a covering on thrusday??

Only eastern parts of Ireland would see snow on thursday. I'll certainly be keeping an eye on the lamposts at the weekend.

Forgot to resize the below picture. :lol:

post-1251-1260900763883_thumb.jpg

Edited by ronan
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Posted
  • Location: South Laois County, Ireland.
  • Location: South Laois County, Ireland.

Evelyn was a tad more upbeat tonight - more emphasis on the cold rather than snowfall though. Last night, weekend highs of 4c were on the TV, tonight it's 3c... an upgrade! :pardon:

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Taken from met.ie ,

"Temperatures will be a little higher on Saturday, though it will still feel very cold in a freshening west to northwest wind. Cloud too, will be on the increase from the north and will bring scattered outbreaks of rain or sleet, possibly preceded in places by a little snow, especially over high ground."

THIS Doesn't sound good to me

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Posted
  • Location: Co.Tyrone
  • Location: Co.Tyrone

Looks to be an upgrade again. Suday looking to be a very snowy day again. I swear i'm gonna have a heart attack by the time this cold spell is over!! The precip charts look amazing! whistling.gifwhistling.gif

Didn't I tell you to keep the faith Ronan BBC NI news hinting for wintry showers by Saturday

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Posted
  • Location: South Laois County, Ireland.
  • Location: South Laois County, Ireland.

Right, 48 hours to go for this one. According to todays Midday GFS output there is a strong chance of snow showers in the southeast for Thursday evening...

Pressure will be 1022hPa and falling, Upper air temperatures will range from -25c at 500hPa to -8c at 850hPa, dewpoints will be 0c or lower everywhere in Ireland excluding the extreme coastal locations of the SE and SW. Air temperatures will generally be 3c to 5c at 6pm, dropping to 0c to -2c later.

I think with SST's (Sea Surface Temperatures) at 8c or 9c in the Irish Sea, with a very cold airmass overhead, that the neccessary ingredients are in place for snow showers over the SE, areas I feel will get hit will be counties... Dublin, Kildare, Wicklow, Carlow, Wexford, Waterford, Kilkenny, Laois, E Offaly and E Tipperary.

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Posted
  • Location: Head in the clouds somewhere near Avondale, West Auckland
  • Weather Preferences: Storm-force northeasterly(with a high tide!).Blizzards.Sunny summer
  • Location: Head in the clouds somewhere near Avondale, West Auckland

Looks like an interesting pic Ronan, can you re-post as resized?

Some sharp bursts of rain here this evening, and a bit of hail mixed in. Gone quite cold too, maybe snow over the higher hills. This is the middle part of the long tortuous process of the troughs pushing down/in from the northeast and east

I can't see that widespread snow on sunday, that slow-moving cold front may turn to snow in places, but will it be dying out? We badly need more penetration of the initial cold burst from the north, followed by forming troughs - still looks like that will only happen in North and east Scotland and east England, with scatter showers around coasts elsewhere. The front seems to be arriving in air that's too mild to give snow itself except over high ground, and not great amounts unless it peps up, which is possible

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin, ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow , thunderstorms and wind
  • Location: Dublin, ireland

I have just seen the 9.30 weather, and Evelyn is quite upbeat and if the Irish met office is upbeat then I am.

The weekend looks very wintry with plenty of snow lying. Where is the question. My opinion is the north/NE definitely but the East plus east midlands and possibility.

All things crossed and waiting.

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Posted
  • Location: Head in the clouds somewhere near Avondale, West Auckland
  • Weather Preferences: Storm-force northeasterly(with a high tide!).Blizzards.Sunny summer
  • Location: Head in the clouds somewhere near Avondale, West Auckland

Some promising upgrades of potential snow/cold today, I might have to put the weeping, wailing, and gnashing of teeth on hold again! Probably all change back again tomorrow, perhaps what matters is the timing of the last set of models before the main events themselves. If tomorrow is downgrade, then thursday might be perfect timing for upgrade :lol:

Easterly/NEasterly and instability now looking very good for east and parts of central and southern England. If it comes off for that lot I wont begrudge, I'll just be happy to know it can happen still in these islands. What happens on the coast will be of particular interest.

Liking the look of the showery troughs progged in the flow on the northern side of the low too, and the tighter isobars, will certainly feel bitter in that. Will be very interested to know the actual temperatures that result from this, SST's must be relatively high. At least it looks like eastern areas here and our southeast will get some heavy wintery showers, snow on hills, by thursday, with scattered wintery showers into friday.

The way it's gone this week, the 4 days before the northerly incursion proper now seem like a lifetime so not much point commenting on that scenario yet.

Still, will be interesting to know if that stalling Arctic cold front will pep up and turn to snow in Scotland and the north of Ireland, once the cold tries to dig in behind.

Time to hold the breath, tomorrow likely to be a swing the other direction again :D

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin, ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow , thunderstorms and wind
  • Location: Dublin, ireland

Hello John, good to see everyone a bit more upbeat from this morning, I still think this is the start of a colder winter and reading GPs thoughts January could be very interestingdrinks.gif

Hi Pomeroysnow,

Yes, things are looking better tonight and the closer it gets to the event the better,

If you are reading GP's thoughts then you are following on the right tracks.

Looking good and waiting patiently.

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