Scottish Cold Spell Discussion:

[glasgow-guy]

I was having a joke after last year's sad attempt by me to predict that there may be a polar low during a particular northerly.

Try this for a good start:

http://forum.netweat...-the-polar-low/

ah OK no probs well will look in again later after the latest round of outputs are out hopefully will be better

[blitzen]

Blimey, here's one that's hoping that those precipitation charts for Saturday and Sunday are not too far off the mark! :

[glasgow-guy]

It's looking promising for much of Scotland, not so promising the further west you come. Damn warm sector. This happened last year and we ended up with freezing rain.....

could go either way for me

1. plenty of snow then quickly turning to rain

2. sleet followed by snow then back to rain

i hope this warm sector is gone in the latest runs this afternoon keep us up to date on this catchmydrift

[Zenarcher]

6z has downgraded my area for Saturday now it says no snow at all but should see some on Sunday.

[Big Innes Madori]

Hi Innes. Don't know if you remember last winter when Mondy posted a satellite picture of Scotland? The east central belt was absolutely snowless whilst everywhere else was white!

If the same happens again this year I think I'll give up. Still, if you're stuck on the top of Knockhill then you have a much better chance than most of us I would think.

Aye Blitzen,

That was the spell I was referring to mate

To be fair though, if there is any snow on offer for this area then I do very well up here.

We had our first spell of wet snow on Tuesday the 1st December which gave the hills a wee covering that evening after waking to a -5 Deg C that morning.

Also been snowed in many times over the years, even for a full week back in the 80's

Looking forward to a possible event by the weekend

Big Innes.

[Mondy]

I've already had two -7c's, 4 days of freezing fog and god knows how many days with frost since beginning of Nov, I begin to wonder if this event is really a "cold spell"?

Anyway, if it's an easterly or even a north easterly, happy days! Even a westerly has given snow here in winter. A true northerly isn't good due to the mountains taking most of the snow, and I doubt a southerly will produce white stuff!

I haven't even checked any forecasts, charts or models

[glasgow-guy]

OK i have no doubt heading towards the weekend most of Scotland will see some snow at some point i am fairly confident of that which i am taking as a very positive sign i mean it wasn't until Feb this year until i seen my first snow of the year ill take whatever i get

[Methuselah]

Im hoping that the Fax charts are nearer the mark...the angle of approach looks to be a tad more preferable, to me???

[glasgow-guy]

Im hoping that the Fax charts are nearer the mark...the angle of approach looks to be a tad more preferable, to me??? :unsure:

I suppose we all see different angles from the charts from the point of view of our own backyards so fair enough

[Methuselah]

I suppose we all see different angles from the charts from the point of view of our own backyards so fair enough :unsure:

:lol:

What I really meant, is that that type of evolution is likely to be what's caused the MetO to predict a longer cold spell than the GFS 06Z...For all of us North of the Border!!

[scotweather]

Meto just issued a couple of Advisories for Heavy Snow 17th/18th East Anglia and SE

[glasgow-guy]

:lol:

What I really meant, is that that type of evolution is likely to be what's caused the MetO to predict a longer cold spell than the GFS 06Z...For all of us North of the Border!!

no probs :unsure:

[Zenarcher]

12z run,

[snowmess]

Saturday looks like it could be reasonable for us if it comes off, according to 12z :o

Edited December 15, 2009 by snowmess

[glasgow-guy]

12z run, <snip>

just fizzles out on Sunday weird? overall very good :o

Edited December 15, 2009 by shuggee

[LomondSnowstorm]

Meto just issued a couple of Advisories for Heavy Snow 17th/18th East Anglia and SE

Best warn the southern softies a bit before in case they have to struggle in with a cm or two of snow!

[glasgow-guy]

huge upgrade after that run for me

[blitzen]

Well I'll take that run - no problem! I see those warm sectors that you guys in the west were worried about on the 06z have all but disappeared. I hope the new GFS isn't looking for Brownie points but we certainly wont have to wait long to find out. If these charts verify it certainly can be considered to have been very consistent.

[glasgow-guy]

Sunday seems to be a day still to watch for today i had a 90% snow now zilch but i wont get too greedy

[blitzen]

That's just the main course though GG. You may have a sneaky wee polar low in there somewhere for dessert!

[glasgow-guy]

That's just the main course though GG. You may have a sneaky wee polar low in there somewhere for dessert!

if confirmed this will be the best snow since 87 in my mind

[Mondy]

Of course, all the warnings are for further south, but it will be us who get the worst of it

[blitzen]

if confirmed this will be the best snow since 87 in my mind

Quite a few on here quote 87. From a personal point of view, yes it was cold and it was snowy but only for 1 week. In this area, there was nothing before that week and absolutely nothing after. I'm getting greedy now you see. Give me 1984 any day! Snow on top of snow for the whole of that January. The snow was up to my hips. The fact that I am only 4'10" probably helped though!

[Mondy]

In my opinion, and I watch these features pretty closely over the years, a polar low could easily emerge from this set up:

But let's not get carried away

[glasgow-guy]

Quite a few on here quote 87. From a personal point of view, yes it was cold and it was snowy but only for 1 week. In this area, there was nothing before that week and absolutely nothing after. I'm getting greedy now you see. Give me 1984 any day! Snow on top of snow for the whole of that January. The snow was up to my hips. The fact that I am only 4'10" probably helped though!

I was 5/2 in 84 so for me 87 is the big one for me and i had better elevation at the time i doubt this weekend will top it