Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[andy_leics22]

Absolute tosh cold snap. Why is it that on Thursday and Friday all the models were showing that a beast of an Easterly was coming and now it's been downgraded to a band of light-moderate rain for a few days because of a mild sector.

I don't see any snow tonight for anywhere in the Midlands below 200-300m. Same for tomorrow and MAYBE light snow flurries if we are very lucky on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

If you are on low ground like I am for the next 2 days then get ready to see a lot of rain.

Edited December 14, 2009 by andy_leics22

[Fozfoster]

Absolute tosh cold snap. Why is it that on Thursday and Friday all the models were showing that a beast of an Easterly was coming and now it's been downgraded to a band of light-moderate rain for a few days because of a mild sector.

I don't see any snow tonight for anywhere in the Midlands below 200-300m. Same for tomorrow and MAYBE light snow flurries if we are very lucky on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

If you are on low ground like I am for the next 2 days then get ready to see a lot of rain.

ABSOLUTE TOSH your right fella .........

[Serendipity]

A bit of optimism required I think! Come on Midlanders, let's be positive lol.

Dew points dropping away a bit now I think, certainly down more than 1 degree here in the last hour or so.

Somewhere in the Midlands will see snow in the next 48 hours I think and then I shall cheer. Later in the week more chance for the rest of us...

[Herefordweather]

Andy, you do get on my nervous slightly at times.

Do you actually look at the models? When did anybody even say the midlands would do extremely well from this?

Personally, I can't think of anything better, than walking through town later on in the week, with the odd flurry of snow falling. I am one who would love a fair bit of snow to fall and for us to have a great cold snap, but lets remember, this is a very busy time of year and it could cause chaos.

I am looking at the models and myself think some of us in the midlands, especially towards the east, and Birmingham, could do very well later on tomorrow. It won't be heavy snow, however light snow, with temperatures dropping, I think some may have a nice suprise.

Looking at the weekend is anyones guess. It definately looks like getting a lot colder, with some crisp cold mornings and some frosts and who knows, maybe a nice bit of snow covering the ground soon. I am just glad we have got that awful rain and wind out of the way and can even talk about snow. Talking of a breakdown seems stupid at this point, as even with breakdowns, we have in the past done extremely well with snowfall and sometimes our best falls come within these situations.

Good things come to those who wait. Remain confident, stay safe and I am sure things will go well. Even if this cold spell/snap doesn't deliver the goods, who's to say January, February or March won't?

Enjoy it, we have some very good charts that we should be looking at.

[Nick L]

Absolute tosh cold snap. Why is it that on Thursday and Friday all the models were showing that a beast of an Easterly was coming and now it's been downgraded to a band of light-moderate rain for a few days because of a mild sector.

I don't see any snow tonight for anywhere in the Midlands below 200-300m. Same for tomorrow and MAYBE light snow flurries if we are very lucky on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

If you are on low ground like I am for the next 2 days then get ready to see a lot of rain.

Had some sleet already this evening, but I have the advantage of some form of altitude - 150m.

Should get something decent by the weekend. But hey, at least it isn't mild.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

the 12Z looks promising for us lot, from wednesday, the FI northerly looks fantastic, on a NW angle as well, but of course well off yet, but ive noticed northerlies tend to arrive at weekends, as for today though not cold

[Potent Gust]

Absolute tosh cold snap. Why is it that on Thursday and Friday all the models were showing that a beast of an Easterly was coming and now it's been downgraded to a band of light-moderate rain for a few days because of a mild sector.

I don't see any snow tonight for anywhere in the Midlands below 200-300m. Same for tomorrow and MAYBE light snow flurries if we are very lucky on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

If you are on low ground like I am for the next 2 days then get ready to see a lot of rain.

You could be right mate. But as I said in my earlier post I often get snow when it is not forecast. Things only need to change slightly and it could happen. If not I can always pop to the Snow Dome, always snow in there LOL

[Costa Del Fal]

Andy you seem to make it seem a whole lot worse than what its going to be! Yes the Easterly has downgraded to an extent after what we were shown last week but i see plenty of oppurtunities for Snow this week and particularly the weekend though this is open to change still.

Enjoy because its a whole lot better than the mild and rain we have all endured recently.

[andy_leics22]

Andy, you do get on my nervous slightly at times.

Do you actually look at the models? When did anybody even say the midlands would do extremely well from this?

Don't worry I get on my own nerves sometimes

Well I shall tell you why I am cheesed off. Thursday, Friday and Saturday last week the models were pointing to a very nice Easterly for this week that would blow in showers or more organised bands of snow into the Midlands.

Now I look at the models and I see about 1 day of a true Easterly and the rest like today and tomorrow is a North Easterly with a warm sector that is bringing rain and temperatures of 4c with a dew of 3-4c. Now call me wrong but I would say unless something drastic changed in the next 24-48 hours we probably won't see snow on low ground anywhere in the Midlands. Ok Wednesday, Thursday and Friday looks better in terms of getting cold enough for snow but wheres the PPN coming from on those days? Wednesday has a bit around but the 850's and dew point look marginal and on Thursday and Friday I can hardly see any PPN around for the Midlands?

Sorry if I annoy you or anyone else but i'm just peeved how we were due a very nice Easterly and it's downgraded to this.

Edited December 14, 2009 by andy_leics22

[Nick L]

the 12Z looks promising for us lot, from wednesday, the FI northerly looks fantastic, on a NW angle as well, but of course well off yet, but ive noticed northerlies tend to arrive at weekends, as for today though not cold

Not cold?! It felt bloody freezing outside! Max of 4c in December is cold by Met Office definitions.

[Fozfoster]

A bit of optimism required I think! Come on Midlanders, let's be positive lol.

Dew points dropping away a bit now I think, certainly down more than 1 degree here in the last hour or so.

Somewhere in the Midlands will see snow in the next 48 hours I think and then I shall cheer. Later in the week more chance for the rest of us...

In Warwick we have a gadget called a snow shield lol , where we are i think it will be a close run thing though

[andy_leics22]

You could be right mate. But as I said in my earlier post I often get snow when it is not forecast. Things only need to change slightly and it could happen. If not I can always pop to the Snow Dome, always snow in there LOL

Lmao the snow dome is legend!

[Essan]

I am looking at the models and myself think some of us in the midlands, especially towards the east, and Birmingham, could do very well later on tomorrow. It won't be heavy snow, however light snow, with temperatures dropping, I think some may have a nice suprise.

That's certainly what the METO 12z meso is showing.

After that I think - as is usually the case - we'll see little, especially in the west, until the weekend when there looks a good chance of more widespread and heavier snow.

But for now, I'm just waiting for a cold night!

[cyclonic happiness]

Don't worry I get on my own nerves sometimes

Well I shall tell you why I am cheesed off. Thursday, Friday and Saturday last week the models were pointing to a very nice Easterly for this week that would blow in showers or more organised bands of snow into the Midlands.

Now I look at the models and I see about 1 day of a true Easterly and the rest like today and tomorrow is a North Easterly with a warm sector that is bringing rain and temperatures of 4c with a dew of 3-4c. Now call me wrong but I would say unless something drastic changed in the next 24-48 hours we probably won't see snow on low ground anywhere in the Midlands. Ok Wednesday, Thursday and Friday looks better in terms of getting cold enough for snow but wheres the PPN coming from on those days? Wednesday has a bit around but the 850's and dew point look marginal and on Thursday and Friday I can hardly see any PPN around for the Midlands?

Sorry if I annoy you or anyone else but i'm just peeved how we were due a very nice Easterly and it's downgraded to this.

This is the trouble with chart watching, we were never DUE an easterly, it just showed us one, which most of us (again!!) fell for.

There is still hope and we may get some upgrades, the 18z has done that over the last 3 days, and the ECM.

[Herefordweather]

That's certainly what the METO 12z meso is showing.

After that I think - as is usually the case - we'll see little, especially in the west, until the weekend when there looks a good chance of more widespread and heavier snow.

But for now, I'm just waiting for a cold night!

Agreed Essan, which is why IMO, we should have a seperate thread for both the East Midlands and the West Midlands.

[NorthantsSnow]

Absolute tosh cold snap. Why is it that on Thursday and Friday all the models were showing that a beast of an Easterly was coming and now it's been downgraded to a band of light-moderate rain for a few days because of a mild sector.

I don't see any snow tonight for anywhere in the Midlands below 200-300m. Same for tomorrow and MAYBE light snow flurries if we are very lucky on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

If you are on low ground like I am for the next 2 days then get ready to see a lot of rain.

Well, all this remains to be seen. Particularly whether or not the cold "snap" as you put it (I'd lean more towards cold spell with a week or more potentially of wintry weather NOT a 2 day toppler) is "absolute tosh" which is surely a judgement that can only be made AFTER not BEFORE the event. I remember you were similarly pessimistic numerous times back in Feb, the eventual outcome was far better than you envisaged it has to be said. Perhaps it might be wise to look at this rationally rather than panicking too much over a "mild" (or in this case less cold) sector which was never going to be picked up until much closer to the event itself and only affects our region for about 6-12 hours on Wednesday.

[cyclonic happiness]

Agreed Essan, which is why IMO, we should have a seperate thread for both the East Midlands and the West Midlands.

I don't think they can split it up anymore than they have, we had this in February where some of us didn't know where to post.

I live in the most central town in the midlands, so I wouldn't know if I was east or west, up or down, or just plain round the bend!!!

[Herefordweather]

I don't think they can split it up anymore than they have, we had this in February where some of us didn't know where to post.

I live in the most central town in the midlands, so I wouldn't know if I was east or west, up or down, or just plain round the bend!!!

Fair enough I suppose. Its just being from Herefordshire, I sometimes feel that Herefordshire and to an extent Worcestershire and Shropshire seem to be the "forgotten areas".

[andy_leics22]

Northants snow... Yes I do see where you are coming from. I just tend to jump the gun quickly when things don't turn out as good as they were forecast a few days ago lol.

I think it is interesting in the fact that it looks to be a week long cold spell, possibly longer... So yes it's all to play for but I just wish we had got that Easterly that was being progged at the end of last week.

[Costa Del Fal]

Fair enough I suppose. Its just being from Herefordshire, I sometimes feel that Herefordshire and to an extent Worcestershire and Shropshire seem to be the "forgotten areas".

Most places are outside of the South East.

Im looking forward to the next week. Where snow does fall it will get pretty tricky in places as it may be a strugle to melt until proper milder weather returns. In the meantime, Enjoy!

[cyclonic happiness]

Just the faintest smidgeons of sleet in the rain here, let's hope it does turn, it will give me hope and a reason to buy beer!! :lol:

[Essan]

Fair enough I suppose. Its just being from Herefordshire, I sometimes feel that Herefordshire and to an extent Worcestershire and Shropshire seem to be the "forgotten areas".

Better than been lumped in with the Welsh

Naturally an easterly favours those further east. Hopefully we get a stonking northerly to satisfy us all. I love it when we get a cold front comes down and we can watch the reports come in as it progresses southwards

[farmeryellow]

Weather update..

Just been around the fields of northwest Oxfordshire (just south west of Chipping norton to be exact) And i can report Sleet on the hills ABOVE 210m, But below that

its all rain. Temps between 2.5 and 4 degs.

I will go out later with me dogs for further updates.

Paul.

[andy_leics22]

Hmmm you know what, I may be forced to eat my words as early as a couple of hours from now

Online weather station that is around the corner from me is reporting dew of 1.3c and temperature of 4c. Now if that drops another 1.5 degrees on both the temperature and the dew then we could be seeing some sleety stuff. We'll see.

I did say earlier though that places above 200m in the Midlands will probably see snow tonight and tomorrow, just doubt it for the low areas though.

[cyclonic happiness]

Hmmm you know what, I may be forced to eat my words as early as a couple of hours from now

Online weather station that is around the corner from me is reporting dew of 1.3c and temperature of 4c. Now if that drops another 1.5 degrees on both the temperature and the dew then we could be seeing some sleety stuff. We'll see.

I did say earlier though that places above 200m in the Midlands will probably see snow tonight and tomorrow, just doubt it for the low areas though.

Bit sleety here atm matey, temps 3'c don't know dew point as my weather station is dead