Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[andy_leics22]

3.6 here

The temp is taking forever to drop. We need it to get down to 2c to be in with a chance of seeing some snow, it's a long way off that.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

snow chances friday i think, SE thread on page 13! they are miles ahead

[Serendipity]

Absolutely Andy - I think we say the same thing every year! Ah well, I moved from the North of the county (WARKS) to the South, thus rendering me with even less chance of snow....

[cyclonic happiness]

The temp is taking forever to drop. We need it to get down to 2c to be in with a chance of seeing some snow, it's a long way off that.

By the looks of the latest radar, the precipitation may fizzle out before it has a chance, unless something comes off the North Sea?

Would be nice to get a few clear spells to get the temps down before anything else comes over.

Tomorrow's snow charts look good for here mind.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=18&mode=2

[echobase]

The temp is taking forever to drop. We need it to get down to 2c to be in with a chance of seeing some snow, it's a long way off that.

Note to self, buy batteries and get the weather station up and running by Thursday.....

[NorthantsSnow]

The 18z actually upgrades the snow risk for tomorrow evening. Take a look at this beauty:

http://209.197.11.95/c9s4a5k3/cds/gfsimages/gfs.20091214/18/24/prectypeuktopo.png?dopvhost=charts.netweather.tv&doppl=0f36092b4410b1a9&dopsig=00a04b4c7f0689c88c8b91104298bca6

Chances of my username becoming true have increased! (note how Northampton is located within the darkest shade of pink)

Edited December 14, 2009 by NorthantsSnow

[Bolton67]

The 18z actually upgrades the snow risk for tomorrow evening. Take a look at this beauty:

http://209.197.11.95...c8b91104298bca6

Chances of my username becoming true have increased! (note how Northampton is located within the darkest shade of pink)

Looks very good for us.

[NorthantsSnow]

Looks very good for us.

It does indeed. Roughly draw a line on a map from MK to Yeovil on the southern flank and Nottingham to Hereford on the northern flank and I think anywhere in that box has a chance of seeing snow tomorrow evening. The risk does steadily transfer southwestwards as the night goes on though so I fancy somewhere more central for the biggest hit- it will be marginal further south and west so maybe just sleet for Yeovil.

This thread should be alot more, "alive"! Looking at the GFS 18z run just now, and it is a fantastic run for sure. Thursday through to Friday is looking very nice indeed - bitterly cold air from the north east with -10 850hPa temps, -5 dewpoints, picking up enough moisture off the north sea allowing moderate or heavy snow showers or prolonged snow bands inland across the Midlands.

Haven't even began to mention the follow-up northerly during the weekend...it's all good now!

The 18z is a massive upgrade in terms of precipitation and has brought a massive snow lovers' grin to my face. It was always the case that the models weren't going to nail precipitation amounts until closer to the event, but they seem to be getting a better handle of it now.

Friday now looks very interested indeed, particularly for the eastern side of the region, but not exclusively so. Saturday night into Sunday also presents a lot of potential once again with that frontal system crossing the entire country-- moderate snowfall as far south as Luton.

Looking further ahead, next Monday could deliver a deluge of snow for the northern half of the region. Andy in Leics won't be moaning when this "absolute tosh" arrives on his doorstep:

http://209.197.11.95/c9s4a5k3/cds/gfsimages/gfs.20091214/18/168/prectypeuktopo.png?dopvhost=charts.netweather.tv&doppl=0f36092b4410b70e&dopsig=f3cbe5c4986f7fb37bc325bef61d9541

Edited December 14, 2009 by NorthantsSnow

[Bolton67]

It does indeed. Roughly draw a line on a map from MK to Yeovil on the southern flank and Nottingham to Hereford on the northern flank and I think anywhere in that box has a chance of seeing snow tomorrow evening. The risk does steadily transfer southwestwards as the night goes on though so I fancy somewhere more central for the biggest hit- it will be marginal further south and west so maybe just sleet for Yeovil.

The 18z is a massive upgrade in terms of precipitation and has brought a massive snow lovers' grin to my face. It was always the case that the models weren't going to nail precipitation amounts until closer to the event, but they seem to be getting a better handle of it now.

Friday now looks very interested indeed, particularly for the eastern side of the region, but not exclusively so. Saturday night into Sunday also presents a lot of potential once again with that frontal system crossing the entire country-- moderate snowfall as far south as Luton.

Next Monday now looks interesting for the northern half of the region. Andy in Leics will be moaning when this "absolute tosh" arrives on his doorstep:

http://209.197.11.95...bc325bef61d9541

One thing i dont really want is a northerly flow. we always miss out on the snowfalls here in Northampton

Keeping the wind from the east or north east gives us a better chance.

[echobase]

It does indeed. Roughly draw a line on a map from MK to Yeovil on the southern flank and Nottingham to Hereford on the northern flank and I think anywhere in that box has a chance of seeing snow tomorrow evening. The risk does steadily transfer southwestwards as the night goes on though so I fancy somewhere more central for the biggest hit- it will be marginal further south and west so maybe just sleet for Yeovil.

The 18z is a massive upgrade in terms of precipitation and has brought a massive snow lovers' grin to my face. It was always the case that the models weren't going to nail precipitation amounts until closer to the event, but they seem to be getting a better handle of it now.

Friday now looks very interested indeed, particularly for the eastern side of the region, but not exclusively so. Saturday night into Sunday also presents a lot of potential once again with that frontal system crossing the entire country-- moderate snowfall as far south as Luton.

Looking further ahead, next Monday could deliver a deluge of snow for the northern half of the region. Andy in Leics won't be moaning when this "absolute tosh" arrives on his doorstep:

http://209.197.11.95...bc325bef61d9541

Moaning? He`ll be on `my` doorstep with his sledge!!!

[cyclonic happiness]

The thing that gives me the biggest thrill to hear, are the word "snow fields", reminds me of the night in 1991 when i took the dog a walk over the farmer's fields near where i lived, it was nightime and the snow was about a foot deep and the temperature was -16'c!!!

It was easy to walk through the snow though coz it was so dry, even though it was deep.

When i got near to the small River Anker, there were great slabs of ice floating down it and it was like pure daylight with a full moon!!

The cold was soooo intense it hurt to breathe, i only was able to stand it for about 30 minutes, but it was one of the most amazing weather related experiences that I have ever had.....sublime!

[NorthantsSnow]

One thing i dont really want is a northerly flow. we always miss out on the snowfalls here in Northampton

Keeping the wind from the east or north east gives us a better chance.

Sometimes they sort of fizzle out they reach here or simply aren't potent enough to affect us much at all. This time though I think we could be in luck as it does actually look fairly decent. Northerlies aren't the best possible source for us but they can still deliver significant snow when a front comes down. I mentioned the white Easter of 2008 earlier as that was a particularly good recent example but there are lots more.

[andy_leics22]

Looking further ahead, next Monday could deliver a deluge of snow for the northern half of the region. Andy in Leics won't be moaning when this "absolute tosh" arrives on his doorstep:

http://209.197.11.95/c9s4a5k3/cds/gfsimages/gfs.20091214/18/168/prectypeuktopo.png?dopvhost=charts.netweather.tv&doppl=0f36092b4410b70e&dopsig=f3cbe5c4986f7fb37bc325bef61d9541

No comment I'll be waiting for when it downgrades and everywhere gets snow except the Midlands

[Nick L]

No comment I'll be waiting for when it downgrades and everywhere gets snow except the Midlands

When you get a huge dumping of snow, I want you to build a snowman, stand next to it and hold up a sign saying "I am a numpty" and take a photo of it as a punishment for your pessimism

Edited December 14, 2009 by nick2702

[andy_leics22]

When you get a huge dumping of snow, I want you to build a snowman, stand next to it and hold up a sign saying "I am a numpty" and take a photo of it as a punishment for your pessimism

LMAO you are on

[A.J]

When you get a huge dumping of snow, I want you to build a snowman, stand next to it and hold up a sign saying "I am a numpty" and take a photo of it as a punishment for your pessimism

Andy doesnt need a sign for us to know he's a numpty...We've all known it for years!....

Anyhoos, back on topic....fabulous pub run on the models tonight...Plenty of opportunities for decent snowfalls for both east&west midlands upto T+174...FI shows a very rapid breakdown from the Atlantic, GFS seems very progressive on this, but as its way out in FI then I'm not worried about it all, that'll change umpteen times between now & then....in the mean time, enjoy the snow!

[davehsug]

Not sure if it's just sleet or full on snow (& I'm not going outside to check 'because its ****** cold:lol:)as it's quite light, but it's definitely wintry precip here in Stoke

Dave

[MKN]

Sometimes they sort of fizzle out they reach here or simply aren't potent enough to affect us much at all. This time though I think we could be in luck as it does actually look fairly decent. Northerlies aren't the best possible source for us but they can still deliver significant snow when a front comes down. I mentioned the white Easter of 2008 earlier as that was a particularly good recent example but there are lots more.

Difference with this northerly is its following on from a very cold easterly, so things could be different to what we usually expect

[kold weather]

I think central parts of the Midlands should be very interested in tomorrow eveing, as some have been commenting. The front doesn't look too potent but it doesn't move very much as it has no where to really go and so whilst the front isn't all that potent snowfall could build up to a somewhat decent level, I wouldn't be all that shocked to see some places get 3-5cms though most wouldn't get quite that much. Certainly is something to watch for you guys, and of course Wednesday could well offer interest as well!

[andy_leics22]

I think central parts of the Midlands should be very interested in tomorrow eveing, as some have been commenting. The front doesn't look too potent but it doesn't move very much as it has no where to really go and so whilst the front isn't all that potent snowfall could build up to a somewhat decent level, I wouldn't be all that shocked to see some places get 3-5cms though most wouldn't get quite that much. Certainly is something to watch for you guys, and of course Wednesday could well offer interest as well!

Hey dude, but don't you think the temps will be on the wrong side of marginal? Just like tonight was. GFS said 1-2c at this moment in time and it's currently 4c. The warm sector is still over us tomorrow evening

[toonarmy32]

Well didnt think I would be here this side of xmas .......... but just came in to let you know that we are having some sleet up here by the licky hills wish i could tell u the temps and dew point but the dam weather station broke down have to replace it tomorrow

cher

[kold weather]

The GFS was too far west with the cold air tonight it seems looking at the models and the real time data. Still the big difference tomorrow eveing is the colder air really be digging into the east.

Right now Andy the dew points ar eon the wrong side of marginal but by tomorrow night the colder and drier air should be tucking in from the east and eventually should become favorable between 9-12 tomorrow eveing. As I said before being on the eastern edge is key and there won't be much of a snow zone, possibly only 10-15 miles in width without any sort of altitude (of course heights make a big difference, even just 100ft could make or break) but I feel there is likely to be more of a snow zone to be had then tonight.

Of course, tomorrow mornings data will be key, we will have a better idea then what is going to happen.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Morning peeps. Chin-up, we're looking good for a dumping soon I feel

[Fozfoster]

morning all, we will only know if we are going to get snow in the 12-24 hour bracket, wear and amounts who knows

Edited December 15, 2009 by fozfoster

[azores92]

i think its worth mentionining that in jenelle aldreds forecast for the week ahead this morning, she said clearly that snow wouldnt settle, and that all it would be was slush .