Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion

[Osbourne One-Nil]

You are welcome anywhere, OON

Well, I think I could come up with a fairly lengthy list of places I'm not welcome...and not always due to legal undertakings.

I'm going to post wherever I've got the best chance of snow.

[Jeremy Shockey]

great to have the local threads back .............lots of rain today in North Newbald .........looking forward to a wintry mix ...then snow as the week progresses

[disco-barry]

Chucking it down here at the moment, I'll let you know if it has turned to the tops above Huddersfield later if PennineTenFootDrifts hasn't said owt.

[Cheese Rice]

Best bet for snow is Saturday/Sunday with the polar lows, hopefully these will come of. Also a front moving south across the country, has been showing on the GFS for a few runs. Long may it continue .

[sparky1972]

dont know about any snow here, its lashing it down with rain so not getting my hopes up for any fun in the snow, but here is hoping it might turn a bit wintry before the week is out.

[sunny scunny]

dont know about any snow here, its lashing it down with rain so not getting my hopes up for any fun in the snow, but here is hoping it might turn a bit wintry before the week is out.

Yeah it's been a wet day thats for sure, and im not getting my hopes up over any snow later in the week.

[Cheese Rice]

don't know about any snow here, its lashing it down with rain so not getting my hopes up for any fun in the snow, but here is hoping it might turn a bit wintry before the week is out.

Don't worry its meant to be raining, temps are too high for now. Tomorrow afternoon expect colder air coming in and the rain may well turn to snow and give a few Cm's in places. Then after that any precipitation will fall as snow.

[sparky1972]

Don't worry its meant to be raining, temps are too high for now. Tomorrow afternoon expect colder air coming in and the rain may well turn to snow and give a few Cm's in places. Then after that any precipitation will fall as snow.

lets hope we get some snow, wife has just told my daughter that dad can take her out over the weekend and build a snowman, cant type here what i have just told my wife. lol

[Lewis]

Evening guys, if you don't mind I would like to provide in-depth information on the prospects of snow this coming week, i'll provide charts etc and risk maps.

If thats ok with you, please do let me know.

Thanks

Lewis

[sunny scunny]

Evening guys, if you don't mind I would like to provide in-depth information on the prospects of snow this coming week, i'll provide charts etc and risk maps.

If thats ok with you, please do let me know.

Thanks

Lewis

Evening mate hope your well. Sounds good to me

[Lewis]

Evening mate hope your well. Sounds good to me

I'm great thanks mate, was in a mood a little earlier thanks to Game Station, tried robbing me, but i got me money back 280 quid for a PS3 - wont go into detail, long story haha.

Anyhow, I'll do an update now and make a chart for our region only and not include the rest of the country.

I'll also do one when the 18z comes out.

Lewis

[Mark Bayley]

Evening guys, if you don't mind I would like to provide in-depth information on the prospects of snow this coming week, i'll provide charts etc and risk maps.

If thats ok with you, please do let me know.

Thanks

Lewis

I doubt there would be any objections

Its always good to have different peoples thoughts

[Arnie22]

sounds good to me SFL

[Lewis]

Update GFS - 12z (and mixture of ECM) 14th December 2009

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Snow Risk Chart

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Good evening,

Well well, who would have thought on the 14th December we would be looking at an easterly blast with the chance of widespread snow showers penetrating inland off the N sea? And then a potent Northerly already queuing up to open the flood gates from the Arctic!

This has been one hell of a roller coaster ride and guess what! It's only just begun.

I will post continuous updates throughout this wintry period, I'll do my best to be as quick as possible after each run, all my forecast's and predictions are updated after the following runs.

00Z which rolls around 3:30am, 06Z which rolls out around 9:30am, 12z that rolls out at 3:30, and the infamous 18z pub run that rolls out at 9:30 every night.

I won't go into too much detail on this first post, as I shall be posting another one tonight shortly after the 18z, and in my opinion the 18z tonight will be equally important regarding the position of the Low Pressure System.

Right here we go...

Tonight

Temperatures will stay around 5-6c this evening as we have some light to moderate precipitation, at the moment we are under 0 to -1 850's with colder upper temps coming across our region after midnight, temperatures will drop to around 3-4c with maybe a touch of ground frost in rural area's.

Showers will gradually die back, leaving a clear end to the night.

Tomorrow

Temps will start to recover from overnight lower temperatures, Tuesday marks the first day all of our region will see max temps well below 5-6c. A cold pool of air with -4 to -7 850's in places will cut across the region. They will be showers continuing nearer to the East Coast, which will be mainly of rain with the odd bit of sleet thrown in for good measure.

Into Tuesday a more organized band of precipitation will make it's way inland, initially falling as rain and sleet for lower levels until the colder air undercuts.

The precipitation will readily turn to sleet and snow away from coastal areas (but i would not rule out any snow falling at lower levels around Sprunehorpe, N lincs area for a time.

The further South you are in the region the better, as dew points are more supportive for snowfall, and the lower 850's push North and meets the band of rain, this colder air will undercut and provide snowfall, i cannot paint a line on the map on which areas will see the snow as it all depends on where the band and colder air meets. As you can see on the NW-Extra chart below;

Predicted dew points for tomorrow

Wednesday looks to be mainly of rain, as we suck in some warmer upper temperatures, but don't worry we could call this the lull before a blast from the East.

It's certainly going to get colder!!

Come Thursday into Friday they will be widespread snow showers penetrating inland from a stiff Easterly wind, all model runs have shown a tighter organized flow to the up-coming easterly, which is a huge positive for everyone in our region.

Predictions

East Yorkshire/North Yorkshire: Frequent snow showers during Thursday penetrating inland and becoming much heavier Thursday night overnight into Friday, total accumulations come 9pm Friday night: 10-18cm with North Yorkshire exceeding this.

N Lincs/S Lincs (Including East Lincs and East Midlands): Again Frequent snow showers during Thursday into Friday coming off the N sea, some very heavy showers possible around the Wash ares, total accumulation come 9pm Friday night: 15-20cm

West Yorkshire and South Yorkshire: As we are still unsure about how far inland these showers will penetrate my estimations may be off the mark a little, i think in general these area's have a better chance of seeing accumulations during Friday am, and then overnight Friday into Saturday, Total accumulations come 9pm Friday night: 4-10cm. Although the further west you are in this region, the less persistent/organized and potent the showers will be.

I'll update later on, before I go i just want to leave you with this fantastic chart for our region, mouth watering

850 Temps Tapping into -11 to -12...

Edited December 14, 2009 by Storm Force Lewis

[Cheese Rice]

Good forecast, informative.

The showers are likely to push far west, they always do in an Easterly, I am yet to counter an Easterly that the showers have died off before making it to West Yorkshire.

[Mark Bayley]

Great post SFL! Not far form Sheffield which is in SY, i think your estimates of around 5cm for them and me are pretty good, i to think this is what i may see, perhaps a little less depending how potent the showers are As i keep mentioning its Saturday night that i have my eye on with the front moving south, so a few cm's from the showers and few cm's from the front won't be to bad. That's if it pans out that way...

[Lewis]

Thanks guy's glad you like it,

I missed one thing out, for people with elevation say above 100m expect some good falls tomorrow..

Fingers crossed Sheffield does well, and 10123, i honestly cannot see you firing a blank at all from this easterly, come Wednesday I'll know what we are looking at in terms of the flow. But I can definitely say you will see something if the current models come to fruition.

Lewis

Edited December 14, 2009 by Storm Force Lewis

[Arnie22]

Great post Storm - as someone in S/E Lincs that amount of Snow would be phenomenal.

Keep up the great work, its much appreciated by all I imagine.

Lets hope this delivers what has been promised for many years but has be grasped away at the last moment.

Arnie

[sunny scunny]

Excellent post lewis, and lets hope things remain on track to give us a good snowfall towards the end of the week.

[Mark Bayley]

Thanks guy's glad you like it,

I missed one thing out, for people with elevation say above 100m expect some good falls tomorrow..

Fingers crossed Sheffield does well, and 10123, i honestly cannot see you firing a blank at all from this easterly, come Wednesday I'll know what we are looking at in terms of the flow. But I can definitely say you will see something if the current models come to fruition.

Lewis

Perhaps you might be able to get a more zoomed in map of our region?

Look forward to seeing your forecasts in this thread

[Winter Warmer]

any ideas how much the east of doncaster might get?

[Mark Bayley]

any ideas how much the east of doncaster might get?

To early to say, expect at least a cm or two over the coming days :lol: Follow SFL updates on here, the model thread as well as the net-weather forecasters blogs for updates nearer the time

[Light Without Heat]

Nice work SFL, I hope that lot comes off (I start my christmas holidays on Friday added bonus), I'm battlehardened to this now and was lucky enough to do 1979 and 1986/87 while at school and college in Beverley. Count me in for this thread ! :lol:

[Lewis]

18z now rolling out :lol:

Will do an update when i get to t72.

lewis

[stewfox]

Update GFS - 12z (and mixture of ECM) 14th December 2009

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Snow Risk Chart

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I must be coloured blind !

Anyway great read graphs need the right colours