Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion

[SnowRules]

I see the prospects for a decent amount of snowfall in West Yorkshire are not looking good

[reef]

Just a question? How are you calculating snow depths? Bear in mind its next to impossible to accurately forecast snow depths until we see what the shower activity is like. Regardless of this, the GFS never goes for a precipitation rate of more than 2mm per 3 hrs. Not to mention the easterly is pretty short-lived in our neck of the woods. Most areas should get a covering - even close to the coast (though not at first), but 15-20cm? Unless shower activity is much more than the GFS currently shows, no chance.

The main interest comes from the band that moves down from the North during Saturday evening. This has a very January 2004 type look to it. Theres a chance that it could fall as rain at first depending on how the cold air manages to dig in from the easterly beforehand, but either way it would rapidly turn to snow. Precipitation looks to be much heavier in this band, plus has the double benefit of being from the NNW - meaning no moderation from the North Sea aswell as being overnight so thawing wouldnt occur like between showers during the day. Temperatures on the ground look very favourable aswell, with most areas below freezing, compared to temperatures up to 4C during the easterly (as you'd expect with the long sea track).

[Mark Bayley]

I actually think the main band Saturday night would fall all as snow for most of us, as there's never really much of a mild sector. Lots of precipitation around on the 18z so far, so a good covering for most as you've stated above reef

[Just Before Dawn]

The main interest comes from the band that moves down from the North during Saturday evening. This has a very January 2004 type look to it. Theres a chance that it could fall as rain at first depending on how the cold air manages to dig in from the easterly beforehand, but either way it would rapidly turn to snow. Precipitation looks to be much heavier in this band, plus has the double benefit of being from the NNW - meaning no moderation from the North Sea aswell as being overnight so thawing wouldnt occur like between showers during the day. Temperatures on the ground look very favourable aswell, with most areas below freezing, compared to temperatures up to 4C during the easterly (as you'd expect with the long sea track).

I'd agree with that - the Easterly progged for Friday and Saturday could be OK, or not - it's all a bit up in the air at the moment, though I do agree with Lewis that GFS tends to under-do convective precipitation, though the window is tight - and high SSTs might make this a mrginal event on the Coast - Usual places likely to be favoured I'd guess - North York Moors, Yorkshire Wolds, Howardian Hills and the western Lincolnshire Wolds, with snow to lower levels in the western lee of hills. As Lewis also says - the further south is probably the better.

Saturday may be a more widespread event and less marginal, even along the coast, though ppn might be an issue in the very east, given the westerly component. If everything comes together, places at altitude (even well west) could do very well.

[Lewis]

Reef, it's a convective easterly, with warmer than average North sea SST'S, if you have been watching the precipitation the N sea has brought in over the past 2 days under high pressure you will see what I'm getting at.

By the way folks, i have to go as the kids have woken, i may be back later. so this is a very quick update.

18Z is an upgrade upto now, all but a warmer sector making it very marginal for all areas in England for 3-4 hours during Friday, dews are marginal. But don't worry because the colder 850's soon hit us and the dews drop rapidly, don't forget this is a few days away, so next run the marginal 3 hours could be completely gone.

More precipitation on this run and more chances of snow (widespread).

Saturday looks very interesting indeed.

My % for seeing snow across our regions has now risen to 90-95%.

Will do a really informative/in-depth post tomorrow morning.

Good night everyone

Edited December 14, 2009 by Storm Force Lewis

[reef]

Reef, it's a convective easterly, with warmer than average North sea SST'S, if you have been watching the precipitation the N sea has brought in over the past 2 days under high pressure you will see what I'm getting at.

The rain that fell today was not convective though, rather frontal, associated with the low pressure which will eventually sink southwards to give us our easterly. There were convective showers yesterday, but these dropped nothing more than 1.5mm here.

Cast your mind back to the December 2005 easterly. SSTs were around the same, the upper air was slightly milder, however the easterly was similar in length and isobars were about as tight as what the models are currently showing.

This was the result:

The flow wasnt particularly strong, so showers didnt travel particularly far inland. Snow depths were 2-5cm with slightly less close to the coast as those areas recieved rain first. Obviously no easterly is the same, however along with the models and what has occured in similar past eventsits safe to say that any 'forecast' (or guessed?) snow depths are vry unlikely to reach anywhere near 15-20cm.

Im not having a dig at you Lewis, but if you're forecasting snow depths, percentage chance of snow etc you need to explain why.

[Lewis]

The rain that fell today was not convective though, rather frontal, associated with the low pressure which will eventually sink southwards to give us our easterly. There were convective showers yesterday, but these dropped nothing more than 1.5mm here.

Cast your mind back to the December 2005 easterly. SSTs were around the same, the upper air was slightly milder, however the easterly was similar in length and isobars were about as tight as what the models are currently showing.

This was the result:

The flow wasnt particularly strong, so showers didnt travel particularly far inland. Snow depths were 2-5cm with slightly less close to the coast as those areas recieved rain first. Obviously no easterly is the same, however along with the models and what has occured in similar past eventsits safe to say that any 'forecast' (or guessed?) snow depths are vry unlikely to reach anywhere near 15-20cm.

Im not having a dig at you Lewis, but if you're forecasting snow depths, percentage chance of snow etc you need to explain why.

I already explained why, and of course not, i know your not having a dig at me, i respect and appreciate your comments/input .

I just have a gut feeling this one's different.

A lot more window opportunities are open with this easterly, than the 2005 event, which was not many showers, but a huge pasting from a front pushing east.

Lewis

[Schnee]

Nice to see the regional threads back again.

[sunny scunny]

It's quiet in this thread, but hopefully towards the end of the week members will be posting snow pics,including me

[gobbyash]

I just have a gut feeling this one's different.

Lewis

Hmmmm.

Don't forget that whatever the forecast, it will always rain at Reef's.

gobby

[Schnee]

It's quiet in this thread, but hopefully towards the end of the week members will be posting snow pics,including me

If it's any good, i'll be doing a youtube video on it.

[paul tall]

The rain that fell today was not convective though, rather frontal, associated with the low pressure which will eventually sink southwards to give us our easterly. There were convective showers yesterday, but these dropped nothing more than 1.5mm here.

Cast your mind back to the December 2005 easterly. SSTs were around the same, the upper air was slightly milder, however the easterly was similar in length and isobars were about as tight as what the models are currently showing.

This was the result:

The flow wasnt particularly strong, so showers didnt travel particularly far inland. Snow depths were 2-5cm with slightly less close to the coast as those areas recieved rain first. Obviously no easterly is the same, however along with the models and what has occured in similar past eventsits safe to say that any 'forecast' (or guessed?) snow depths are vry unlikely to reach anywhere near 15-20cm.

Im not having a dig at you Lewis, but if you're forecasting snow depths, percentage chance of snow etc you need to explain why.

That easterly gave me 8cm snow overnight 28th into 29th and daytime temperatures did not climb higher than -3.4ºC. Happy days.

[disco-barry]

Of all the Easterlies i've known of in my 25 years of life, they always deliver! We never have less than say 10cm of snow as the hills just sap it all where i live. So i'm being optimistic for the easterly to deliver yet again.

[sparky1972]

good morning everyone, heres to another day of will it wont it, heres hoping it does and we get lots of loverly snow over the days to come.

[Coast]

Cold snap could turn Lincolnshire into winter wonderland

Snow showers could turn Lincolnshire into a winter wonderland from tomorrow, according to weather experts.

Temperatures are expected to plummet towards the 2ºC mark in the daytime on Thursday and Friday, but the Met Office believes the first signs of snow might be seen tomorrow evening.

Lincolnshire County Council officials say they are confident grit stocks are good enough to combat icy conditions on the roads and there will be no repeat of the shortages experienced earlier this year.

In February, the authority was required to ship in 13,800 tonnes of salt from Germany, Sicily and Morocco to keep the gritters going, Met Office forecaster Helen Chivers told the Echo: "I would say in the latter part of Wednesday there is a distinct possibility of seeing snow showers moving in from the North Sea. "Quite how much is unclear. The temperatures will drop quite considerably on Thursday and Friday to round about 2ºC by day. This will increase the chance of seeing snow in Lincolnshire."

Lincoln trader Barry Reeves said snow had a "devastating impact" on businesses.The Sincil Street Traders Association chairman and owner of Viva Coffee Shop said timing of any snow would be important. "Snow is devastating and it stops everyone from coming into town," said Mr Reeves.

www.thisislincolnshire.co.uk/news

[sunny scunny]

I like the top line of that headline coast.IF ONLY

[Coast]

I like the top line of that headline coast.IF ONLY

I should go out today and stock up on those custard creams mate!

[Edge of the moors]

Latest Met Office warning for our part of the world......

Yorkshire & Humber:

E Riding of Yorkshire

Kingston upon Hull

N Lincolnshire

N Yorkshire

NE Lincolnshire

York

Heavy Snow Thu 17 Dec

There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting eastern parts of England. Showers will readily turn to snow giving local accumulations of 5 to 10cm.

Issued at: 1053 Tue 15 Dec

First one....

[russh]

Hmmmm.

Don't forget that whatever the forecast, it will always rain at Reef's.

gobby

Same here in Snowless Barton on Humber lol

[sunny scunny]

Latest Met Office warning for our part of the world......

Looking good, so lets hope it actually happens :winky:

[sparky1972]

Latest Met Office warning for our part of the world......

Yorkshire & Humber:

E Riding of Yorkshire

Kingston upon Hull

N Lincolnshire

N Yorkshire

NE Lincolnshire

York

Heavy Snow Thu 17 Dec

There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting eastern parts of England. Showers will readily turn to snow giving local accumulations of 5 to 10cm.

Issued at: 1053 Tue 15 Dec

First one....

lets hope i see something for sth lincs soon

[WS Evolution]

Based on the latest charts I would say the high risk areas for significant snow with some disruption on Thursday will be:

• Yorkshire Wolds
  
• North York Moors
  
• Lincolnshire Wolds
  
• Howardian hills
  

A few specific routes affected from a snowy Easterly / North Easterly:

A166 @ Garrowby Hill is normally a bad spot for disruption. Also A1079 between Market Weighton and Bishop Burton a bad spot for disruption.All routes across the North York moors, particularly the A169 picking to Whitby road.I guess there will be many many more.

[grab my graupel]

Latest Met Office warning for our part of the world......

Yorkshire & Humber:

E Riding of Yorkshire

Kingston upon Hull

N Lincolnshire

N Yorkshire

NE Lincolnshire

York

Heavy Snow Thu 17 Dec

There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting eastern parts of England. Showers will readily turn to snow giving local accumulations of 5 to 10cm.

Issued at: 1053 Tue 15 Dec

First one....

Lovely, thats what I like to hear.

When I viewed the charts, earlier this week, I was quietly concerned by the lack of

precipitation available, but it seems there will be enough instability to give our

region a good pasting, afterall

[smhouston]

Rubbish, S Yorks not on :-( Hopefully that will change in the future!

[sunny scunny]

Lovely, thats what I like to hear.

When I viewed the charts, earlier this week, I was quietly concerned by the lack of

precipitation available, but it seems there will be enough instability to give our

region a good pasting, afterall

I think you'll get an absolute dumping mate, so i'll look forward to seeing your pics

Edited December 15, 2009 by sufc