Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion

[grab my graupel]

I think you'll get an absolute dumping mate, so i'll look forward to seeing your pics

So do I mate.

I've just seen WS Evolution's post above, and I couldn't help

but notice the 'Howardian hills' mentioned in there; It's where I live

[WS Evolution]

With the warm sea and the forecast max temperatures 3 C inland, I think any significant snow (Risk of disruption) on Thursday will be away from the coast and at altitudes of >50m, depending on the distance from the coast. It will be colder further west, but less snow falling. I think there will be a point inland that will be the optimum position for settling snow with more favorable temperatures and plenty of snow falling.

I also think Wednesday night could be very promising for anywhere over 100m and slightly inland from the coast. North Yorkmoors particularly. In areas that do get snow over night Wednesday the chance of significant snow(Risk of disruption) Thursday must surely increase with snow on the ground keeping the temperature lower than otherwise.

Exciting times.

Edited December 15, 2009 by WS Evolution

[Lewis]

With the warm sea and the forecast max temperatures 3 C inland, I think any significant snow on Thursday will be away from the coast and at altitudes of >50m, depending on the distance from the coast. It will be colder further west, but less snow falling. I think there will be a point inland that will be the optimum position for settling snow with more favorable temperatures and plenty of snow falling.

I also think Wednesday night could be very promising for anywhere over 100m and slightly inland from the coast. North Yorkmoors particularly. In areas that do get snow over night Wednesday the chances of significant snow Thursday must surely increase with snow on the ground keeping the temperature lower than otherwise.

Exciting times.

Thursday/Friday will see snow at all levels, whether your on Hornsea beach, or in Hull or further west, dew points 850's and temps are fine, the gfs resolution is not the best for dews and temps, if you have net-w extra, use the NMM models closer to the time frame.

Less modification due to a tighter/potent easterly flow, bringing dew points and temps on the coast right down. Not marginal one bit.

Lewis

[WS Evolution]

Thursday/Friday will see snow at all levels, whether your on Hornsea beach, or in Hull or further west, dew points 850's and temps are fine, the gfs resolution is not the best for dews and temps, if you have net-w extra, use the NMM models closer to the time frame.

Less modification due to a tighter/potent easterly flow, bringing dew points and temps on the coast right down. Not marginal one bit.

Lewis

By significant snow I mean settling to a depth to cause problems on the roads(Risk of disruption). I agree it will snow and its not marginal even on the coast, but I don't think it will cause problems at sea level on the coast. Its likely going to be wet snow falling onto ground that is not frozen! although still time for the charts to show even colder weather and I have not looked at the high rez like you said so I could be wrong... What I am trying to do is determine where the most snow will settle and I don't think that will be at sea level on the coast.

-27°C at our friends house in north Sweden ! and its heading this way!

Edited December 15, 2009 by WS Evolution

[hollisk]

What are the chances of Leeds seeing some decent snowfall, or is it too far inland?

[Lewis]

By significant snow I mean settling to a depth to cause problems on the roads(Risk of disruption). I agree it will snow and its not marginal even on the coast, but I don't think it will cause problems at sea level on the coast. Its likely going to be wet snow falling onto ground that is not frozen! although still time for the charts to show even colder weather and I have not looked at the high rez like you said so I could be wrong... What I am trying to do is determine where the most snow will settle and I don't think that will be at sea level on the coast.

-27°C at our friends house in north Sweden ! and its heading this way!

I should be ok 18 miles from the coast, when you say coast you mean right on it don't you

Lewis

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

What are the chances of Leeds seeing some decent snowfall, or is it too far inland?

An interesting one that, both the heaviest falls of the last ten years here (Feb 2005 and 2009) have been from easterlies which were forecast to 'mainly affect' E.Yorkshire. But because inland from the east coast it is relatively flat it doesn't need too much breeze for showers to push quite far inland. So, if there is enough of a breeze (which looking at Thursday there should be), and enough shower activity, (which again there should be), I'd say Leeds has a decent chance of seeing snow.

[WS Evolution]

An interesting one that, both the heaviest falls of the last ten years here (Feb 2005 and 2009) have been from easterlies which were forecast to 'mainly affect' E.Yorkshire. But because inland from the east coast it is relatively flat it doesn't need too much breeze for showers to push quite far inland. So, if there is enough of a breeze (which looking at Thursday there should be), and enough shower activity, (which again there should be), I'd say Leeds has a decent chance of seeing snow.

There should be a good few hours at least when the showers push that far west, its a shame its such a short true easterly. I remember easterlies in the early 1990's giving snow showers to the east Pennines that lasted for days and days and extremely good depths.

[Just Before Dawn]

I should be ok 18 miles from the coast, when you say coast you mean right on it don't you :unsure:

Lewis

I think that's right - Lewis is far enough inland (and the moderating effect of The Humber will be less significant as it's a smaller, shallow body of water) for it not to be an issue, but it might be within 5km of the coast - of course it becomes less of a problem the nearer the weekend we get as night time minima will be low enough for snow to settle even in wet conditions, and once you've got even a slight covering it drops ground temps enough to encourage further settling.

[sparky1972]

i must say looking at the forecast on bbc any snow if any will be very short lived, more rain to come, oh joy.the weatheroutlook also has more rain than snow for my area.

[Just Before Dawn]

i must say looking at the forecast on bbc any snow if any will be very short lived, more rain to come, oh joy.the weatheroutlook also has more rain than snow for my area.

I wouldn't put too much store in the weather outlook stuff - A friend who lives in the Western Wolds, at 500 feet had the same forecast, and they're very well placed for snow, particularly on Friday. BBC weather forecast is a bit more of a concern, and certainly it's knife-edge for settling snow (though probably OK overnight Thursday and Friday), I'd be very surprised if you didn't see some snow - The Met O advanced warnings would appear to contradict the BBC forecast.

[WS Evolution]

I wouldn't put too much store in the weather outlook stuff - A friend who lives in the Western Wolds, at 500 feet had the same forecast, and they're very well placed for snow, particularly on Friday. BBC weather forecast is a bit more of a concern, and certainly it's knife-edge for settling snow (though probably OK overnight Thursday and Friday), I'd be very surprised if you didn't see some snow - The Met O advanced warnings would appear to contradict the BBC forecast.

We really need the temperatures to be below forecast for a good widespread covering, but over the last few days they have been slightly above! For example its just under 4C here and its forecast to be 2C by the met office! temp have been consistently above forecast in the North Eastern areas of Yorkshire, particularity in the Vale of York. I am hoping we can get temperatures down to 0C on Wednesday night before the showers arrive. If its already frosty or icy that would be perfect.

[Light Without Heat]

We really need the temperatures to be below forecast for a good widespread covering, but over the last few days they have been slightly above! For example its just under 4C here and its forecast to be 2C by the met office! temp have been consistently above forecast in the North Eastern areas of Yorkshire, particularity in the Vale of York. I am hoping we can get temperatures down to 0C on Wednesday night before the showers arrive. If its already frosty or icy that would be perfect.

Its certainly heading that way mate a 2C drop in under an hour currently 2c East Hull - Winds starting to veer into SE - and non of that crappy rain from yesterday that was forecast to continue here - its really dried up nicely

[WS Evolution]

Latest GFS is an improvement for Wednesday Night to Thursday Night in terms of snow potential for the region. More precipitation and lower temperatures.

[sunny scunny]

Latest GFS is an improvement for Wednesday Night to Thursday Night in terms of snow potential for the region. More precipitation and lower temperatures.

Yep looking good on the gfs 12z in the short term thats for sure.

[WS Evolution]

Yep looking good on the gfs 12z in the short term thats for sure.

If that was accurate Lincolnshire would be berried!

[WS Evolution]

As for Sunday morning the region would wake up to widespread snow cover and temps of -5 (if your up early enough)! warmer on the coast but here it will continue to snow!

Edited December 15, 2009 by WS Evolution

[sunny scunny]

As for Sunday morning the region would wake up to widespread snow cover and temps of -5 (if your up early enough)! warmer on the coast but here it will continue snow!

Massive upgrade thats for sure and hopefully nothing much changes in future runs.Hopefully the ukmo will be just as good.

[SnowRules]

Will West Yorkshire miss out on the snow? :o

[WS Evolution]

Will West Yorkshire miss out on the snow?

Saturday afternoon into Sunday Morning should be good for everyone based on that run as the northerly sets in.

[grab my graupel]

Massive upgrade thats for sure and hopefully nothing much changes in future runs.Hopefully the ukmo will be just as good.

Hi mate, I've not had chance to view the Models yet, but I

gather they look good for our region.

Can't believe that we are being treated to such a fantastic outlook so early in the season.

[Mark Bayley]

Hi mate, I've not had chance to view the Models yet, but I

gather they look good for our region.

Can't believe that we are being treated to such a fantastic outlook so early in the season.

Looking very good for us!

Why have all the regional threads been unpinned? Was easier to navigate round without all the topics mixed up

[grab my graupel]

Looking very good for us!

Why have all the regional threads been unpinned? Was easier to navigate round without all the topics mixed up

Hi Mark, great stuff

The threads were unpinned because we were all agreed that

they took up too much of the page - members were having to

scroll to find the main threads e.g. the Model thread

[Mark Bayley]

Hi Mark, great stuff

The threads were unpinned because we were all agreed that

they took up too much of the page - members were having to

scroll to find the main threads e.g. the Model thread

Oh, at least you was able to find the model thread

But i do agree about it taking up most of the page

Looking forward to some wintry pictures, GFS shoud give us a goood covering

[Just Before Dawn]

Just had a look at the 12z GFS output - very interesting from our regional point of view - favoured uplands areas could see some fairly impressive snow depth totals by Saturday night if that verifies - at least in '00 terms anyway. Also temps look a bit more favourable for Thursday through until Saturday on the basis of that run (not that they were particularly perilous for the back end of the week).