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North East England Cold Spell Discussion


shuggee

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Posted
  • Location: Co Durham, UK
  • Location: Co Durham, UK

I'd be happy with a couple of inches of snowy goodnees, lets hope that either the Easterly or the Northerly can deliver, be nice on the run up to Christmas :aggressive:

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Posted
  • Location: Stanley, County Durham.
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme!
  • Location: Stanley, County Durham.

The Met Office extended forecast is good for us...

UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Dec 2009 to Tuesday 29 Dec 2009:

A mixture of sunny spells and showers or longer outbreaks of rain or snow will affect most parts at first, with some significant snowfall possible, particularly for Scotland and northern England. Cold generally, with the northwesterly winds making it feel even colder, and with frosty and icy surfaces in places. From Christmas Eve onwards, it is likely to remain unsettled and wintry in most northern areas with further outbreaks of rain, sleet or snow. Further south, cloud and rain seems likely to spread northwards, but quite probably preceded by a spell of snow in places. Temperatures may recover to near or above normal in parts of the south towards the end of the period, although this aspect is uncertain.

Updated: 1218 on Tue 15 Dec 2009

Like the sound of that.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

The GFS 06Z looks like it's a big outlier so I wouldn't read too much into that run (though it is snowy for NE England in the short term, at the expense of the south).

So, going by the ECM/UKMO, we can still expect increasingly wintry showers to fire in off the North Sea on Thursday. These will start to produce accumulations inland during the evening but will struggle to do so near the east coast. During the 18th showers will become increasingly confined to the east coast but will also produce accumulations there as the wind slackens and the cold air intensifies.

The 19th/20th will see one or two bands of precipitation move down from the north with a slight "warm sector" out to the west (there's a chance that it could end up being a genuine warm sector in between a warm front and a cold front). Outcomes from recent similar setups suggest to me that most areas west of the Pennines will see sleet or wet snow, with rain near the west coast, but that most areas east of the Pennines will see snow.

Any parts of NE England that are snow-covered once the front clears southwards are highly likely to maintain a snow cover right through until when the cold spell breaks down from the SW- which could be any time between 22 December and the end of the month.

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Posted
  • Location: Morpeth
  • Location: Morpeth

ive just upgraded from radar to full subscription :shok: bloody hell there's some gear on there lol.

Just look out your front window for the black clouds heading our way, its a lot cheaper :good:

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Posted
  • Location: Stanley, County Durham.
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme!
  • Location: Stanley, County Durham.

ive just upgraded from radar to full subscription :shok: bloody hell there's some gear on there lol.

The high res NMM model should come in handy towards the end of the week. It seems to do a good job of forecasting ppn at short range.

Looks like Thursday afternoon, overnight into Friday morning should give most of us at least a couple of cm's

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Posted
  • Location: consett co durham
  • Location: consett co durham

The high res NMM model should come in handy towards the end of the week. It seems to do a good job of forecasting ppn at short range.

just looking at that now Mark,very interesting all these new gadgets.more stuff to baffle meself with lol.

Edited by peterf
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Yeah those showers firing off the north sea for Thursday do look pretty potent, a decent angle as well at times for those showers to penertrate decently inland with winds ENE for a good 12hrs should allow some decent accumulations. Certainly would think those warnings of 5-10cms sound about right to me.

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Posted
  • Location: Newcastle upon Tyne
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and heat, North Sea snow
  • Location: Newcastle upon Tyne

I'm now slightly more hopeful about the easterly, probably not that much snow but there have been some surprise snowfalls from easterlies in the past, sometimes 6 inches without any warning just an hour in advance. That cold front on Saturday does bear some similarities to January 2004, that was a good event around here.

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Posted
  • Location: Jarrow 28m asl
  • Location: Jarrow 28m asl

plenty more precipitation around on the new GFS 12Z run, in my opinion the parralel must be able to forecast precipition more accurately, as the amount of rain we've had today from the north sea with the setup we have today could dwarf the amount we could see when the easterly is set in proper with them tighter isobars. i'm looking forward to waking up to snow falling on thursday morning if everything goes to plan, and enjoy a nice walk to the bus stop in the snow :pardon:. the mild sector on thursday seems to have vanished again haha, hopefully this won't be too much of a spoiler if it comes back for coastal areas in particular - but it should be fast to clear :doh:.

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Posted
  • Location: Newcastle upon Tyne
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and heat, North Sea snow
  • Location: Newcastle upon Tyne

Looking at the precipitation forecasts I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of inches on Friday, and if we did get a decent covering before Saturday that band of snow could cause some real problems. Before today I thought the easterly was going to be cold and dry with a few snow showers providing nothing more than a dusting. Looking forward to tomorrow when any snow on Thursday will show up on the BBC maps properly. That's if it is forecasted properly of course :o

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Posted
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Showers, Snowy Periods , Blizzards, Cold Weather
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees

Posted Yesterday, 17:42

Well im very happy by thursday morning at 9am ill have 3-5cm of snow and snow continuing to fall throughout the day and then the showers increase in intensity during thursday night so by friday morning depth 7-20cm is easily possible then snow showers start to die out in the afternoon on friday but no snow melt so by this time 10cm-25cm and then dry overnight then saturday could bring a polar low and deliver many inches and that needs a massive eye kept on it! OVERALL IM IN A CHRISMASY COLD SNOWY MOOD TONIGHT! :o

This post has been edited by Snowstorm1: Yesterday, 17:42

I posted this yesterday and no one believed me i wonder if you do now? ;)

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Posted
  • Location: Newcastle upon Tyne
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and heat, North Sea snow
  • Location: Newcastle upon Tyne

Posted Yesterday, 17:42

Well im very happy by thursday morning at 9am ill have 3-5cm of snow and snow continuing to fall throughout the day and then the showers increase in intensity during thursday night so by friday morning depth 7-20cm is easily possible then snow showers start to die out in the afternoon on friday but no snow melt so by this time 10cm-25cm and then dry overnight then saturday could bring a polar low and deliver many inches and that needs a massive eye kept on it! OVERALL IM IN A CHRISMASY COLD SNOWY MOOD TONIGHT! :cray:

This post has been edited by Snowstorm1: Yesterday, 17:42

I posted this yesterday and no one believed me i wonder if you do now? ;)

I still think those depths are highly over estimated I'm afraid. Maybe 5cm by Friday, 10cm in prone spots like Consett, Stanley etc. with a further 5-10cm over the weekend. That isn't to say I expect final depths to be 10-20cm, I just wouldn't rule it out. Most places at low levels could get 5-10cm imo by Sunday morning.

Edited by alza
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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

Posted Yesterday, 17:42

Well im very happy by thursday morning at 9am ill have 3-5cm of snow and snow continuing to fall throughout the day and then the showers increase in intensity during thursday night so by friday morning depth 7-20cm is easily possible then snow showers start to die out in the afternoon on friday but no snow melt so by this time 10cm-25cm and then dry overnight then saturday could bring a polar low and deliver many inches and that needs a massive eye kept on it! OVERALL IM IN A CHRISMASY COLD SNOWY MOOD TONIGHT! :cray:

This post has been edited by Snowstorm1: Yesterday, 17:42

I posted this yesterday and no one believed me i wonder if you do now? ;)

I don't see us having 3-5CM by Thursday morning but there is a chance of a slight covering(if the showers are going to be widespread) by Thursday morning.

I can't see 7-20CM occuring either, more likely 5-10CM as the Met Office is predicting however at this stage, that probably would only be reserve for the South of the region, so your area snowstorm1 for example. This is due to more Northern areas being pretty close to the high pressure centre and killing off the chance of widespread showers although i still expect a few showers to still be around(hopefully). Whilst i don't expect to many changes either way at this range, if there is a 50-100 miles shift either way of the main easterly flow then things could be different.

I'm not going to talk about the weekend potential as that is too far away and making a prediction at this stage would probably change.

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Posted
  • Location: Newcastle upon Tyne
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and heat, North Sea snow
  • Location: Newcastle upon Tyne

Lets see what the ECM wants to give us, rolling out soon...

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Mmm my drive over to Newcastle Thursday evening is looking interesting, I may just escape the worst of the showers though as they look to be penetrating further inland overnight - but we shall see.

The snow risk has upgraded since yesterday for Thursday and into Friday. I'm expecting a general 2 inch cover in many parts of the NE by Friday morning probably more on higher ground, with potential for generally higher levels where showers are heaviest.

Looking to Saturday an attack from the north so further snow I expect.

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Posted
  • Location: Newcastle upon Tyne
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and heat, North Sea snow
  • Location: Newcastle upon Tyne

Mmm my drive over to Newcastle Thursday evening is looking interesting, I may just escape the worst of the showers though as they look to be penetrating further inland overnight - but we shall see.

The snow risk has upgraded since yesterday for Thursday and into Friday. I'm expecting a general 2 inch cover in many parts of the NE by Friday morning probably more on higher ground, with potential for generally higher levels where showers are heaviest.

Looking to Saturday an attack from the north so further snow I expect.

I wonder if thundersnow will occur during this easterly? SSTs are quite high, and last February there was some. I've been sceptical of this easterly because it is only mid December, but if this exact situation occurred in February I would be more excited. If anything it could be better than if it occurred during late winter due to the low angle of the sun, but I'm playing it safe by predicting 1-2 inches. If it was February I'd be inclined to predict 2-4 inches by Friday.

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

Conditions for snowfall looking good from the early hours of thursday onwards now,which is an upgrade from yesterdays 12z.

Thursday night into friday morning i would expect a covering over most of the northeast,maybe the odd rogue flurry almost making it to the appleby area.....

I wonder if thundersnow will occur during this easterly? SSTs are quite high, and last February there was some. I've been sceptical of this easterly because it is only mid December, but if this exact situation occurred in February I would be more excited. If anything it could be better than if it occurred during late winter due to the low angle of the sun, but I'm playing it safe by predicting 1-2 inches. If it was February I'd be inclined to predict 2-4 inches by Friday.

I will have a virtual bet of 500 yen with you that we get thundersnow in the northeast on thursday night/early friday morning.:cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Newcastle upon Tyne
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and heat, North Sea snow
  • Location: Newcastle upon Tyne

Look North weather just been on, 5-10cm expected for Thurs + Fri (recited from METO advisory), then rain on Saturday :cold: Still just 2/3°C though so I think that may change.

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Posted
  • Location: consett co durham
  • Location: consett co durham

Look North weather just been on, 5-10cm expected for Thurs + Fri (recited from METO advisory), then rain on Saturday :cold: Still just 2/3°C though so I think that may change.

i think Hannah just read that straight from the Met website lol.

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Posted
  • Location: Newcastle upon Tyne
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and heat, North Sea snow
  • Location: Newcastle upon Tyne

i think Hannah just read that straight from the Met website lol.

I think she usually does, I've noticed rather than saying 'colder in the east', she'll look at the graphics and read out 'colder at Newcastle and Berwick' or whatever. A good forecaster should provide their own opinion, I could have looked at the graphics and given a forecast as good as that myself.

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Posted
  • Location: consett co durham
  • Location: consett co durham

I think she usually does, I've noticed rather than saying 'colder in the east', she'll look at the graphics and read out 'colder at Newcastle and Berwick' or whatever. A good forecaster should provide their own opinion, I could have looked at the graphics and given a forecast as good as that myself.

agree,i dont rate her at all.

Trai is a lot fitter anyway lol. :pardon:

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