North East England Cold Spell Discussion

[Alex95]

agree,i dont rate her at all.

Trai is a lot fitter anyway lol.

lol

[Alex95]

Temp. dropped to 2.9°C, but now its back to 3.2°C so no snow here tonight, not that I ever expected any. Will the snow start tomorrow evening, or will we be made to wait until Thursday? <_<

[peterf]

Temp. dropped to 2.9°C, but now its back to 3.2°C so no snow here tonight, not that I ever expected any. Will the snow start tomorrow evening, or will we be made to wait until Thursday? <_<

midnight the morra lol.

[Alex95]

midnight the morra lol.

Ah playing it safe, 23:59 and you can say you said tomorrow, 00:01 and you can say you were just 1 minute off! <_<

[Andy_]

with all the rain today and forecasted tomorrow do you think the ground will be too wet initally for the snow to lie? i really hope not too many times i have seen snow falling into puddles and instead of seing a wintry scene i see wet, lmao.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I expect thundersnow to occur somewhere during this easterly outbreak, yes. Only a very low probability in any one location, but the very cold upper air (-10C 850hPa) and above-average North Sea temperatures and a reasonable amount of instability in the flow are the perfect recipe for localised occurrences of thundersnow.

The ground being too wet for the snow to lie is not the biggest problem. Usually it's more that the air temperature isn't low enough to begin with. If it snows heavily enough at a low enough air temperature, it will settle no matter how wet the ground is.

[paul tall]

Crap comment edit!

As you were chaps.

Edited December 15, 2009 by paul tall

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

with all the rain today and forecasted tomorrow do you think the ground will be too wet initally for the snow to lie? i really hope not too many times i have seen snow falling into puddles and instead of seing a wintry scene i see wet, lmao.

I don't think that would make any difference, even if the ground is drenched i've seen snow settle if it's heavy enough.

Also I agree with others about Hannah, i've never been keen on her from the start. Trai and Paul Mooney are much better.

EDIT: Too slow, Ian already answered.

[Geordiesnow]

I think she usually does, I've noticed rather than saying 'colder in the east', she'll look at the graphics and read out 'colder at Newcastle and Berwick' or whatever. A good forecaster should provide their own opinion, I could have looked at the graphics and given a forecast as good as that myself.

Yep i tend to notice that aswell, she does relies on the graphics far too much. I wish they have Paul Mooney back on the forecasts more often, he seems to know his stuff and you can get a good idea of what the weather will be like in the region from his knowledge.

Anyways, i still doubt we will see 5-10CM in Northumberland and Tyne & Wear, the shower activity just does not last long enough but i'm sure we will see some white scenes by Friday morning.

Some thundersnow is certainly possible aswell as the showers should be on the beefy side.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I have little doubt that some places will, indeed, see 5-10cm. However I expect most places to get just 2-5cm and some locations might see no lying snow at all- most likely the furthest inland areas and also parts of the coastal fringe. For example I am quite hopeful that there will be lying snow at Cleadon on Friday but I have my doubts about the snow settling at, say, Tynemouth.

[Andy_]

The ground being too wet for the snow to lie is not the biggest problem. Usually it's more that the air temperature isn't low enough to begin with. If it snows heavily enough at a low enough air temperature, it will settle no matter how wet the ground is.

ah reet cheers for that i think the last time i seen it happen was last winter where it snowed pretty much all day and nothing lied due to it being a rain to snow event - my memory is pathetic though so i couldn't be specific lol.

and its areet MCT i took your comments too haha :lol:

ok one more question lmao, will the air temperature in my location be suitable sayy thursday/friday - i'm about 102M ASL according to Google Earth.

[Snowstorm1]

I have little doubt that some places will, indeed, see 5-10cm. However I expect most places to get just 2-5cm and some locations might see no lying snow at all- most likely the furthest inland areas and also parts of the coastal fringe. For example I am quite hopeful that there will be lying snow at Cleadon on Friday but I have my doubts about the snow settling at, say, Tynemouth.

mate by thursday will i have 2-5cm and by friday 5-10cm ? if so it be a lovely way to break up for xmas

[Alex95]

mate by thursday will i have 2-5cm and by friday 5-10cm ? if so it be a lovely way to break up for xmas <_<

Going by what he said (and what I think) up to 5cm by Friday, maybe more over the weekend though from that northerly.

Edited December 15, 2009 by alza

[Geordiesnow]

I know you don't take PPN charts too literally but they do give you an idea of what might happen and i have to admit, i am a little concerned by the lack of PPN. Only Wednesday night into Thursday morning really give us any decent PPN whilst we are in low pressure.

However as pressure rises pretty quickly, the showers really does reduce according to the GFS. Now, you can't say the GFS is underplaying PPN amounts as Lincolnshire gets battered by PPN so i'm starting to think that we might get frequent showers during Wednesday night into Thurs only for them to become less frequent during the day. That would be typical as by then the cold air would be over us.

Not sure what other people think? I just personally think pressure will be too high for anything too interesting to develop.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Are people in the middle of the country, like me, due to get any? I've got being inland and quite high in my favour, but I can't make head nor tail of what's happening where and when.

[dave79]

Hi everyone, my first post here.

I've been reading various threads the past few days and it has made for great reading from a neutral's point of view. I'm a total newbie when its comes to reading models etc so I am leaving that to you guys.

What I really want to know is whats the chances looking like for us here on Teesside for some snow, at the moment its tanking down with rain so I guessing pretty low.

thanks dave.

[peterf]

just got back in,i aint looked at the last run yet.is it a yay or a nay chaps?

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Are people in the middle of the country, like me, due to get any? I've got being inland and quite high in my favour, but I can't make head nor tail of what's happening where and when.

You might get a rogue shower this week, but Saturday and beyond looks good for you I would say.

Latest GFS run shows plenty of PPN on Friday afternoon and evening for us further east, which is good but Saturday doesn't look as good. The trough splits heading to our east and west with little in between. I'm sure that'll keep changing for at least another couple of days yet though. Beyond that it stays cold longer on this run, with easterly winds returning and wintry showers up until Christmas day and even beyond.

[Snowstorm1]

Hi everyone, my first post here.

I've been reading various threads the past few days and it has made for great reading from a neutral's point of view. I'm a total newbie when its comes to reading models etc so I am leaving that to you guys.

What I really want to know is whats the chances looking like for us here on Teesside for some snow, at the moment its tanking down with rain so I guessing pretty low.

thanks dave.

Mate thursday morning you and i will wake up to a covering of snow and snow showers will continue during the day then a spell of snow of thursday night then snow showers on friday

[Geordiesnow]

You might get a rogue shower this week, but Saturday and beyond looks good for you I would say.

Latest GFS run shows plenty of PPN on Friday afternoon and evening for us further east, which is good but Saturday doesn't look as good. The trough splits heading to our east and west with little in between. I'm sure that'll keep changing for at least another couple of days yet though. Beyond that it stays cold longer on this run, with easterly winds returning and wintry showers up until Christmas day and even beyond.

That would be typical if that happens but as you say, its subject to change with each run.

I like the slight Northerly upgrade aswell for Friday night into Saturday, winds for a time favour us people on the eastern coast bringing in snow showers before showers fades as winds veers more NW'ly.

Hopefully the PPN will upgrade regarding the trough.

[dave79]

Mate thursday morning you and i will wake up to a covering of snow and snow showers will continue during the day then a spell of snow of thursday night then snow showers on friday

Really

I think the last real spell of good snow which hung around for a few days was 1996 started on boxing day afternoon, didnt stop till the following morning, it lasted till new year also, although it was mainly ice by then.

[Snowstorm1]

Really

I think the last real spell of good snow which hung around for a few days was 1996 started on boxing day afternoon, didnt stop till the following morning, it lasted till new year also, although it was mainly ice by then.

Yep and it wont melt because of the angle of the sun

[snowlover2009]

would you class west yorks in northeast lol?

[SNOW-MAN2006]

STUNNING 18z Run

The current run suggets this for the northeast of England;

WEDNESDAY - Pretty miserable day for all, moderate rain moving south across the region, maybe falling as sleet over the highest of ground, but nothing to be getting excited about

THURSDAY- The real cold comes in during thursday afternoon. So showers for the east cost making it inland at times turning increasingly to snow as the day wears on... Showers tending to die away though as evening encroaches to leave a very cold night in its place...

FRIDAY- Heavy showers down that eastern coast again stretching inland at times... More frequent during mid afternoon Then a heavy pulse of snow stretching down through friday evening... temps widley at 2-3 degrees -Snow likely-

SATURDAY- Showers early in the east dying away, before a band of (currently forecast) light snow to extend through the region (was forecast as moderate snow on earlier runs) leaving further heavy snow showers behind along the eastern coast...

Following this (VERY MUCH SUBJECT TO CHANGE) - Then showers tend to dye away after sunday morning giving winter sunshine for sunday and monday but a widspread ice days across the region before the potential for an easterly reload come Tuesday bringing the threat of further HEAVY SNOW....

Snow potential is highest along the east coast so places such as middlesbrough, newcastle sunderland are all likely to be in the firing line... as much as maybe 2-4cm on thursday 6+cm Friday evening and then 2cm during Saturday (but more with the places due to see the heavy showers on the coast on Saurday night)

The coast could see atleast 10cm on the ground come Sunday morning....

SNOW-MAN2006

[peterf]

would you class west yorks in northeast lol?

nope,but feel free to join in here SL.