North East England Cold Spell Discussion

[snowlover2009]

STUNNING 18z Run

The current run suggets this for the northeast of England;

WEDNESDAY - Pretty miserable day for all, moderate rain moving south across the region, maybe falling as sleet over the highest of ground, but nothing to be getting excited about

THURSDAY- The real cold comes in during thursday afternoon. So showers for the east cost making it inland at times turning increasingly to snow as the day wears on... Showers tending to die away though as evening encroaches to leave a very cold night in its place...

FRIDAY- Heavy showers down that eastern coast again stretching inland at times... More frequent during mid afternoon Then a heavy pulse of snow stretching down through friday evening... temps widley at 2-3 degrees -Snow likely-

SATURDAY- Showers early in the east dying away, before a band of (currently forecast) light snow to extend through the region (was forecast as moderate snow on earlier runs) leaving further heavy snow showers behind along the eastern coast...

Following this (VERY MUCH SUBJECT TO CHANGE) - Then showers tend to dye away after sunday morning giving winter sunshine for sunday and monday but a widspread ice days across the region before the potential for an easterly reload come Tuesday bringing the threat of further HEAVY SNOW....

Snow potential is highest along the east coast so places such as middlesbrough, newcastle sunderland are all likely to be in the firing line... as much as maybe 2-4cm on thursday 6+cm Friday evening and then 2cm during Saturday (but more with the places due to see the heavy showers on the coast on Saurday night)

The coast could see atleast 10cm on the ground come Sunday morning....

SNOW-MAN2006

you make it sound like just a newcastle, geordie event. there is yorkshire too and also the pennines.

nope,but feel free to join in here SL.

well i know its not in the northwest. so what region is it in?

[SNOW-MAN2006]

you make it sound like just a newcastle, geordie event. there is yorkshire too and also the pennines.

no my reference is clearly for the eastern coast, i dont expect the pennines to be best situated for these events.... yes whilst the pennines as best for hieght and temps they are not in the firing line im afraid .... but yes yorkshire are but more east yorkshire than anything else...

[dave79]

STUNNING 18z Run

The current run suggets this for the northeast of England;

WEDNESDAY - Pretty miserable day for all, moderate rain moving south across the region, maybe falling as sleet over the highest of ground, but nothing to be getting excited about

THURSDAY- The real cold comes in during thursday afternoon. So showers for the east cost making it inland at times turning increasingly to snow as the day wears on... Showers tending to die away though as evening encroaches to leave a very cold night in its place...

FRIDAY- Heavy showers down that eastern coast again stretching inland at times... More frequent during mid afternoon Then a heavy pulse of snow stretching down through friday evening... temps widley at 2-3 degrees -Snow likely-

SATURDAY- Showers early in the east dying away, before a band of (currently forecast) light snow to extend through the region (was forecast as moderate snow on earlier runs) leaving further heavy snow showers behind along the eastern coast...

Following this (VERY MUCH SUBJECT TO CHANGE) - Then showers tend to dye away after sunday morning giving winter sunshine for sunday and monday but a widspread ice days across the region before the potential for an easterly reload come Tuesday bringing the threat of further HEAVY SNOW....

Snow potential is highest along the east coast so places such as middlesbrough, newcastle sunderland are all likely to be in the firing line... as much as maybe 2-4cm on thursday 6+cm Friday evening and then 2cm during Saturday (but more with the places due to see the heavy showers on the coast on Saurday night)

The coast could see atleast 10cm on the ground come Sunday morning....

SNOW-MAN2006

wooo there could 10cm on the ground by Sunday :drinks:i'll drink to that lol

thanks for that SNOW-MAN2006

Whats the chances of it hanging around for christmas?

[SNOW-MAN2006]

wooo there could 10cm on the ground by Sunday :drinks:i'll drink to that lol

thanks for that SNOW-MAN2006

Whats the chances of it hanging around for christmas?

KEY WORD COULD... not SET IN STONE ...

Ask me the same question on Tuesday, i shall have a n answer by then, but atm not looking good, the last few runs bring the breakdown close to xmas but the current gfs run 18z shows a very snowy christmas with widspread snow and cold lasting until new year, widely 20+ cm of nsow if this run where to come off easily!

BUT in line with current runs it has a minimal chance of coming off, put your money on a green xmas id say

Edited December 15, 2009 by SNOW-MAN2006

[paul tall]

Hopefully enough snow will get inland to my place (I'm about 15 miles from the coast) and then the fridge can take over and preserve it.

[dave79]

KEY WORD COULD... not SET IN STONE ...

Ask me the same question on Tuesday, i shall have a n answer by then, but atm not looking good, the last few runs bring the breakdown close to xmas but the current gfs run 18z shows a very snowy christmas with widspread snow and cold lasting until new year, widely 20+ cm of nsow if this run where to come off easily!

BUT in line with current runs it has a minimal chance of coming off, put your money on a green xmas id say

or well carnt get to greedy I suppose, make the most of this spell then

thanks again.

[Geordiesnow]

STUNNING 18z Run

The current run suggets this for the northeast of England;

WEDNESDAY - Pretty miserable day for all, moderate rain moving south across the region, maybe falling as sleet over the highest of ground, but nothing to be getting excited about

THURSDAY- The real cold comes in during thursday afternoon. So showers for the east cost making it inland at times turning increasingly to snow as the day wears on... Showers tending to die away though as evening encroaches to leave a very cold night in its place...

FRIDAY- Heavy showers down that eastern coast again stretching inland at times... More frequent during mid afternoon Then a heavy pulse of snow stretching down through friday evening... temps widley at 2-3 degrees -Snow likely-

SATURDAY- Showers early in the east dying away, before a band of (currently forecast) light snow to extend through the region (was forecast as moderate snow on earlier runs) leaving further heavy snow showers behind along the eastern coast...

Following this (VERY MUCH SUBJECT TO CHANGE) - Then showers tend to dye away after sunday morning giving winter sunshine for sunday and monday but a widspread ice days across the region before the potential for an easterly reload come Tuesday bringing the threat of further HEAVY SNOW....

Snow potential is highest along the east coast so places such as middlesbrough, newcastle sunderland are all likely to be in the firing line... as much as maybe 2-4cm on thursday 6+cm Friday evening and then 2cm during Saturday (but more with the places due to see the heavy showers on the coast on Saurday night)

The coast could see atleast 10cm on the ground come Sunday morning....

SNOW-MAN2006

Fair forecast SM06 although i don't really agree about showers dying back and coming back again for Friday as i think the GFS might be a little to quick to bring the Northerly in.

As i say in my previous posts though, i'm still a little concerned that there seems to be a lack of PPN during Thursday. As ever though, i suppose it's about watching that radar and see what happens.

[Thundery wintry showers]

For those who live near the Tyne & Wear coast, the lack of PPN for Thursday isn't a major issue snow-wise as it won't be cold enough, though it is a concern for inland areas which increasingly will be cold enough, and need those showers to come inland. Friday should indeed have a snow cover in coastal areas, I reckon. I'm dubious about this system on Saturday- gut feeling tells me it will be snow east of the Pennines but there is a slight chance of it being just sleety and thawing the snow away. Just a slight chance but not one to be ignored.

East-coast snow showers are not a certainty after the band moves away- I think most of the showers will actually be in the west, but troughs should bring the snow showers across to the eastern side of the Pennines at times.

[dave79]

For those who live near the Tyne & Wear coast, the lack of PPN for Thursday isn't a major issue snow-wise as it won't be cold enough, though it is a concern for inland areas which increasingly will be cold enough, and need those showers to come inland. Friday should indeed have a snow cover in coastal areas, I reckon. I'm dubious about this system on Saturday- gut feeling tells me it will be snow east of the Pennines but there is a slight chance of it being just sleety and thawing the snow away. Just a slight chance but not one to be ignored.

East-coast snow showers are not a certainty after the band moves away- I think most of the showers will actually be in the west, but troughs should bring the snow showers across to the eastern side of the Pennines at times.

bbc weather has my region on Thursday down as heavy snow top temperature of 4.c

friday down as heavy rain top temperature of 6.c

saturday dry and sunny top temperature of 4.c

a mixed bag in store.

[Cal]

Right Desert, wrong tent

Edited December 15, 2009 by Cal

[peterf]

m bones tell me that as gunna get hacked in lol.

[paul tall]

Hang on a minute, so we might get a couple of cm's snow and probably a couple of nights a couple of degrees below freezing, isn't this just a normal cold snap and nothing out of the ordinary? Or are you playing safe here Dave?

It is just that people have been talking of snowmageddon and temperatures getting down to -15 over the last couple of days, and I started getting a tad excited that my cold temperature record could go at the very least.

[SNOW-MAN2006]

slight downgrade for the northeast on this run for friday...temperatures at 3 or 4 now at the coast meaning marginal im afraid... but on a plus saturday looking very cold 1 degree at the coast and the percipitation has picked back up

[paul tall]

I'm in the warmest part of town too. The outskirts towards Greenfield and also School Aycliffe are much frostier. A good degree colder than my back garden.

My record is -6.7 on 29/12/2005, on that day it widely reached -8 around the North East.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I managed a -10.2 on the 3rd March 2001 which is my lowest reading. Cleadon is only two miles away from the coast but it's a suburban location surrounded by greenbelt land, and under favourable conditions minima can get surprisingly low. I don't think that will be beaten this time around.

In the past few years the lowest was -5.8 on the 3rd March 2006, closely followed by -5.4C on the 29th December 2005 (I think we were moderated by a slight breeze off the sea on that occasion). A couple of nights in February 2008 were almost as cold as that. I think the -5.8C has a very good chance of being beaten- I think under clear skies, a light wind off the land and established cold air Cleadon could easily get a -7 or -8 out of this. A lot depends also on whether the events of Thursday through Saturday provide a snow cover.

I don't think Friday's looking any more marginal for the east coast than before. It will always be marginal with the wind directly off the sea, but I think most eastern coastal parts of the region should still wake up to a snow cover on Friday.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

My lowest is -11.3 on March 1st, 2001, although that winter I also had a -10.9º (Feb 24th), -9.0º (Feb 28th), -8.9º (March 2nd), -11.0º (March 3rd) and -7.9º (March 4th).

slight downgrade for the northeast

For the northeast coast perhaps.

[Thundery wintry showers]

If there is a downgrade for the north-east coast I don't see it. Temperatures look set to be similar to what they were on earlier runs. I think the Tyneside coast will have a max of 4 or 5C early on the 17th, but I think they will get down to within a degree of freezing on Thursday night. The GFS tends to slightly overstate the warming effects at the coast.

[Snowstorm1]

According to the met tommorrow rain showers turning to snow but gfs saying snow from midnight tonight so im confused to whether i will wake upto snow tommorrow ?

[paul tall]

I think the GFS is being a little progressive bringing in snow by midnight.

There will certainly be plenty of precipitation tonight, in fact tonight looks the wettest by far for us, I'm not impressed by the forecast precipation amounts on Thursday evening through Friday and Saturday.

[Alex95]

According to the met tommorrow rain showers turning to snow but gfs saying snow from midnight tonight so im confused to whether i will wake upto snow tommorrow ?

All day tomorrow I expect showers to be wintry, certainly snow at times but I think it will struggle to settle. Maybe a few cm on Friday, but nothing too significant up here I would have though, though Saturday could be better. Having said that, precipitation could be underestimated for Thursday night, there is better chance of settling snow then and the northeasterly appears to only die down during Friday morning.

Edited December 16, 2009 by alza

[Geordiesnow]

All day tomorrow I expect showers to be wintry, certainly snow at times but I think it will struggle to settle. Maybe a few cm on Friday, but nothing too significant up here I would have though, though Saturday could be better. Having said that, precipitation could be underestimated for Thursday night, there is better chance of settling snow then and the northeasterly appears to only die down during Friday morning.

Have to say, i am surprised by the lack of PPN for most eastern areas tomorrow on the beeb forecasts, it's just does not make sence to me as it is a perfect set up for a train of heavy showers.

However for us, i would say Thursday could be a day of sunshine and showers but not especially heavy ones although as ever, it's about watching the radar and see what it actually shows and not what the beeb/GFS thinks.

[Alex95]

Have to say, i am surprised by the lack of PPN for most eastern areas tomorrow on the beeb forecasts, it's just does not make sence to me as it is a perfect set up for a train of heavy showers.

However for us, i would say Thursday could be a day of sunshine and showers but not especially heavy ones although as ever, it's about watching the radar and see what it actually shows and not what the beeb/GFS thinks.

I was getting worried by the beeb forecasts for the 2nd Feb this year (broadcast on the 1st), the snow showers seemed quite sparse. However on the morning of the 2nd, the forecast was much, much snowier.

Goes to show that in these situations precipitation can be underestimated. Admittedly even the first forecast was much better than the one for tomorrow.

Edited December 16, 2009 by alza

[Geordiesnow]

I was getting worried by the beeb forecasts for the 2nd Feb this year (broadcast on the 1st), the snow showers seemed quite sparse. However on the morning of the 2nd, the forecast was much, much snowier.

Goes to show that in these situations precipitation can be underestimated. Admittedly even the first forecast was much better than the one for tomorrow.

Yep, the BBC is one of the worst who are guilty to underestimate snow showers on their graphics however i feel they are probably closer to the mark on this occasion.

I don't expect tomorrow to be full of showers around here and the sunny breaks between any showers will probably be large than usually.

We might get a dusting or 1CM of snow if we are lucky but nothing disruptive i would of thought.

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

According to the met tommorrow rain showers turning to snow but gfs saying snow from midnight tonight so im confused to whether i will wake upto snow tommorrow ?

If you check the snow risk charts in the datacenter they can be quite useful.

It might look like there is a chance from midnight but if you look at the snow height contours, it starts off a few hundred meters, lowering later towards the morning.

That's how it looked on the 06z anyway, just about to leave work and not even looked at the 12z yet.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I'm in the warmest part of town too. The outskirts towards Greenfield and also School Aycliffe are much frostier. A good degree colder than my back garden.

My record is -6.7 on 29/12/2005, on that day it widely reached -8 around the North East.

I remember you wondering on quite a few occasions why you often recorded higher minimums than me despite my site at Cleadon being much nearer the coast. I think the bit in bold that I quoted is almost certainly the main reason why. The urban heat island effect makes quite a significant difference around Cleadon itself as well- in marginal setups there is often more snow cover at Cleadon than in the outskirts of either South Shields or Sunderland.