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Posted
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)

erm... weather fans are here all year round mate :lol: weather fans surely by definition like ALL types of weather! :).

1. Weather fans don't necessarily enjoy all types of weather. Calling someone or oneself a weather fan tends to imply a fascination with the physics underlying the production of our weather as well as with the processes by which we attempt to forecast it.

2. I watch the charts all year round, yet for the most part only become involved in discussion in winter, because that is when the charts are often at their most wild and unpredictable. Also because I am a particular fan of snow. Right now, especially as we are approaching Christmas, I would say the original assertion, that this kind of scenario is why one becomes a weatherfan [sic], is fair. The same might also be said in summer when the charts point to an impending heatwave, but that makes it no less true now.

And re: the models. The 6z was for me a downgrade. They all seem to be trending towards this outcome which has the low drifting too far west in the medium term, from which position wintry weather could be restored of course, but with some difficulty. 6z has also lost quite a bit of ppn and temps are perhaps not as bitter or entrenched as they were on some of yesterday's runs. Perhaps I'm nitpicking.

The ukmo 00z on the other hand is very nice. Excellent chance for the rest of today and tonight if that plays out. Warm sector gets out of the way promptly and plenty of ppn about.

I think we are looking at 10 days + here. Beyond Sunday, there is huge uncertainty and almost anything is possible here given Atantic flow underneath our cold air.

I know you're on the forecast team and I'm not :lol: but isn't this a little premature. I know the trends are looking fair, but in the medium term anything could happen, and even with a southerly tracking jet, we are not exactly guaranteed a cold setup here.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Okay peeps...New thread starting soon!! :good:

So, this one's now closed... :good:

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Posted
  • Location: North Yorkshire
  • Location: North Yorkshire

Today, less than half the ensembles are breaking the cold spell down completely this side of Christmas. In the meantime a trend towards the December 1981-style low index pattern over the UK with cold air resident at the surface and lows tracking to the south is developing on the models (and this can be remarkably hard to shift). Some of the ensembles even keep the cold airmass hanging around northern districts until the end of the month!

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Very much what i was thinking with any milder synoptics being put back in much the same way in the past that progged cold air or synoptics were put further and further back.

As for the synoptics there is a lot of scope for change even just 2 days ahead especially on a local scale and this will prove a nightmare for forecasting snow and amounts and where for that matter , certainly south east england

first, with the low diving sou sou west and some places will get a pasting from this 10 to 15 cms easily kent in particular.

Second change in synoptics and the north,s turn for snow through friday night,saturday and sunday and the progged wind direction is crucial here, at the moment we have a north ,northwesterly progged which although would bring frontal snow down eastern scotland north east england it would not give showers inbetween, this could make a difference of 10 cms in amounts either way.

Any thoughts on this TWS ?????????

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