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Model Output General Discussion


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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

I've seen enough to convince me that this run is a big upgrade from earlier GFS runs- we might still see a breakdown before Christmas in FI but it will almost certaiinly be much later than on the 06Z- the block should be more robust and there will certainly be much colder air around. The northerly and low out in the North Sea combine sub-zero temperatures with plenty of shower activity in eastern regions.

The question is, will the UKMO/ECM support the potent ENE'ly and the potent northerly (both cold and precip wise)? Because the GFS is the old parallel run there isn't much of a guide to check how it compares to the old GFS in terms of verification and it could be overcooking things. It does seem that it may have negated the old problem of overdoing shortwave activity.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley/Dudley, West Midlands. 672ft/205m
  • Location: Sedgley/Dudley, West Midlands. 672ft/205m

Cracking run, hopefully the 18Z follows it and not the 06Z.

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Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.

FLIPPIN ECK!! What a way for the parellel run to make it's introduction as the main run now :pardon:

Big PPN increases for Thursday and Friday with the much colder air with it... Then for the Northerly it is much better than the 06z version.

Some Eastern and South Eastern areas may get a serious pasting on Thursday and Friday if that comes off. You are talking maybe 7 inches+

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.

TWS makes a good point, though - this run could be overplaying things. If the ECM and MetO agree, then we might be looking at being able to predict with more confidence.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The flow looks slack later on but there should be lots of cold air at the surface, just need the Siberian high to ridge west but overall a great start to the evenings model output.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset

I'm lost for words , that low at +144 that skirts the midlands and the south would grind England to a halt. This is by far the best run that has come up so far . A big welcome to the new GFS , long may these amazing charts continue. Tuesday 22nd , -12 In Leicester ... WTF

Edited by snowmadchrisuk
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Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.

Snowfest on monday, I think il bank this run if thats ok thanks.

Could be a snowfest for us on Thursday if that projected PPN comes off.

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Posted
  • Location: South Lanarkshire Glasgow. Lat : 55.8N Lon : 4.1W ASL : 71m
  • Location: South Lanarkshire Glasgow. Lat : 55.8N Lon : 4.1W ASL : 71m

looking at the new data i am most impressed with what's to come and its only December

uksnowrisk.png

uksnowrisk2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)

The new parrallel run seems even more over the top than the usual 12z, http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn16217.png

-12c just north of London seems a bit impossible though i certainly wouldn't complain.

Edited by conor123
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Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.

People are banging on about the possible snow on Monday but thats still F.I yet.

Look a bit closer to now... Thursday evening...

prectypeuktopo.png

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey
  • Location: Purley, Surrey

some very low overnight temps are possible with snow cover. Record breakers are possible for central and southern England not to mention elsewhere

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Well the new version has exploded into life thats for!

Anyway this run is FAR closer to the 06z ensembles and the ECM as well...no doubt this run would give a pretty amazing spell of cold weather!

However this could be the Paralell being a little to the extreme, may well be an issue for a few months till some of the kinks are ironed out.

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Posted
  • Location: Gloucestershire
  • Location: Gloucestershire

Isn't there a slight case though of not having anything to judge this data (run) against yet, as until there are following runs we can't gauge this against the ECM et al as it hasn't be used before?

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Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen 33m asl
  • Location: Aberdeen 33m asl

Much better run. The only negative would be the low to the north between Iceland and Norway this weekend - it moves in a SW'ly direction thus cutting off the northerly flow. ECM is better, has it further east and evetually into Denmark! However, the UK does seem to remain in the cold air.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

The new parrallel run seems even more over the top than the usual 12z, http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn16217.png

-12c just north of London seems a bit impossible though i certainly wouldn't complain.

Not ealy in snowfields, fairly decent 850hpa profiles and low thickness, its just something we've not seen an awful lot in the last decade or so, but its more then possible...but I agree this run seems to have swung from one extreme to another...

I would not take GFS quite as seriously as the old GFS run just yet as there are probably still a few issues given its new, sure its been run behind the scenes for a while now but that doesn't mean it may not have inherent biases just like every model has.

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Posted
  • Location: Kingsteignton, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold in winter, snow, frost but warm summers please
  • Location: Kingsteignton, Devon

How does it compare to the Parallel yesterday? Then we would have an idea of whether it was off on one or just continuing a theme?

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