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General Model Output Discussion


Methuselah

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Regarding Mushymanrob's post about "real" weather fans, I think he means more that in winter, many people come on here looking only for cold and snow, but there are others who appreciate a much wider range of weather types- a common trait among those who are interested in the weather generally, rather than just certain aspects of it. But pot, kettle and black spring to mind, because come the 1st March, most of the snow nuts flick a switch to looking only for homogeneous warmth and continuous high pressure, and the members that, in winter, would be dubbed "real weather fans", the ones who enjoy some mild weather types in winter and some cold ones in spring, get slated for not "moving on".

But at the same time I think it's unrealistic to expect anybody to literally enjoy all types of weather. We all have our likes and dislikes, and some, like 130mph hurricanes, would be too extreme for the overwhelming majority. It's more about how wide the "net" is.

Regarding the supposed downgrades I don't see how the upcoming setup with low pressure drifting to the west is a downgrade. The low pressure in itself could assist precipitation, it does not have a particularly warm core, and there will be firmly established cold surface air. Indeed the longer-term outlook is upgrading with more ensembles putting the breakdown off until after Christmas.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)

Regarding the supposed downgrades I don't see how the upcoming setup with low pressure drifting to the west is a downgrade. The low pressure in itself could assist precipitation, it does not have a particularly warm core, and there will be firmly established cold surface air. Indeed the longer-term outlook is upgrading with more ensembles putting the breakdown off until after Christmas.

Fair point. I mean to say that, the trend, it seems to me, is increasingly for the low to sit over the uk, drifting towards the western half. From previous experience, I think even this year, I see the models running away with this trend. My problem with this is that, while the cold air hangs about, there isn't much organised ppn around which will take advantage of that, and evetually you end up with enough of a sw'erly/s'erly flow that the cold moves out of the southern portion at least. What I'd like to see is the models suggesting a resurgence of the hp to the west/northwest/north.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I agree Ian...I know that some of us 'oldies' sometimes appear to ramp-up the 60s a bit too much :good: ; but, even back then 'rain, sleet or snow' was a very common forecast. Marginality is nothing new to the UK!!! :good:

IMO, there's hardly been a situation like this for quite a few years...Let's just enjoy it - while it lasts?? :good:

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Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m

Interesting gfs 12z comeing up. Will tommorow evenings snow for linconshire/east midlands/south east reamin there or will it be progged further north or south..

And hopefully the signs will be there for a real southerly tracking jet towards xmas, leaving us in the cold actic airmass :good:

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Posted
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)

Slight upgrade for everyone in the south east (especially me - I'm right in the middle of the ne/sw tilted strip of ppn coming in friday!), as the ppn covers a slightly larger area. In the very short term it has a large warm sector for the current event, but i'm looking out of the window and nature is telling me not to worry... snow falling

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Posted
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire

Slight upgrade for everyone in the south east (especially me - I'm right in the middle of the ne/sw tilted strip of ppn coming in friday!), as the ppn covers a slightly larger area. In the very short term it has a large warm sector for the current event, but i'm looking out of the window and nature is telling me not to worry... snow falling

I would say the warning meto have it about right based on this model run. Looks like Norfolk, Suffolk, Essex, Kent definately at risk, with those further west still with a risk of course. Of course we won't really know until probably this time tomorrow how things are starting to look.

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Posted
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire

Would I be correct in saying this model run seems to increase the risk to the midlands and south and SE of also another batch of snow on the Saturday?

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Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m

Would I be correct in saying this model run seems to increase the risk to the midlands and south and SE of also another batch of snow on the Saturday?

Its looking like most areas will see some snow on saturday as a front pushes south.

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

precipitation for Fri/Sat doesn't get quite so far West on this run

ofcoarse i think this cold spell has always been mostly about the east and north models have supported this from day 1.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

ofcoarse i think this cold spell has always been mostly about the east and north models have supported this from day 1.

Except Sat/Sun when winds turn more westerly.....

And Mon/Tues/Wed when fronts push up from the south or SW.....

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn721.png - Fantastic chart at such a short timeframe, the sort of chart that gets FI gazers excited but this time its within reaching distance :D

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1321.png - Looking like an excellent run so far with some beautiful sunny cold days and bitterly cold nights with beautiful starry nights :D

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

A Fantastic chart for Monday from GFS with yet another band of heavy snow moving down the country very slowly.

Superb positioning of lows and could be an early contender of chart of the evening, considering it's in the reliable timeframe.

Sorry but can you post the chart for this? All I can see for Monday is showers for exposed coasts?

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

PPn looks quite extensive through to Monday but then as the airflow slackens off for Tuesday we end up dry, sunny- and exceptionally cold. Since the models are slowly evolving a new pattern with lowest pressure to the south rather than east, I expect we will see further changes to Monday/Tuesday's outlook as we get nearer the time. I feel, though, that this pattern that the models are evolving, with the jet taking a sharp left to the east of us rather than over us, is likely to keep us locked in a cold pattern for longer and the odds against a white Christmas are shortening.

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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1381.png - Wow what an amazing chart this is, lovely and slack perfect for some VERY LOW mins. :lol:

I do think this chart will evolve and probably end up distincly different that shown there, as Ian said it's still evolving, lots of small, but minute details that will prove important in the coming days. The model output are subtly changing every day, this is the latest in a line.

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

Except Sat/Sun when winds turn more westerly.....

And Mon/Tues/Wed when fronts push up from the south or SW.....

it depends how cold it stays here in the south.

if milder air attacks from the southwest is it possible snow could still fall here,

i just wondered because there has been alot of talk about surface cold i know alot are going to have some cracking snow events from different angles but from my experience sw attack is not really good for the south.

but that is one hell of a screaming northerly setting in over the weekend.:lol:

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