General Model Output Discussion

[chionomaniac]

not sure we've seen this evolution from ecm. if the ridge doesnt come north, the run would probably evolve in a similar way to the 00z. wait for the ens before too much 'naval gazing'. would nt be a shock if the 00z was different again. the FAX T120 later will show if this ridging from iberia in this fashion has any ens support.

the northern blocking will 'win in the end' anyway.

That Arctic high has ridging south written all over it. We may have to suffer a temporary warm up but I believe we will return to the more blocked scenario. Repeat pattern anyone for around New Year?

[swfc]

out to 240 hours and great northern blocking.Wait and see i guess.

[Evo]

Compare these 2 super-ensemble outputs from here. See the explosion of scatter that just one day makes...

18th

19th

[swilliam]

The ECM is a shocker leaving us all in a mild Southerly by Christmas day

[Liam J]

some very cold nights showing up next week, minus double figures brrrrr with a slack flow and the cold air staying at the surface, but the upper air temps do not support any snow freezing rain likely especially towards midweek

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

ECM FI looks promising with some good height rises near Spitzbergen/Barents Sea area (1050mb) and into Geenland once again, if this did come off it would look very promising, as long as we get some under cutting from the HP rather than the LP trying to shift directly northwards, still an impressive start to the winter with some very strange synoptics not seen for a few years!

[philglossop]

Normally I'm a lurker on the Model thread, but wasn't a Northly blocking High programmed on the NW Forecast during this winter?

Only reason I ask, is down to that chart showing a total blocking on the 29th December.

Impressive and surely this must lead to thoughts of January as being cold (again quoting the NW winter forecast)

[Frosty.]

Amazing how the ecm has changed in the last 2 runs, the 12z is nowhere near as good as the 00z and we lose the cold sadly. However, it could flip again overnight. <_< might as well make the most of it now.

[Geordiesnow]

Havant really followed the models all that much due to the snow events recently but from what i seen of them, there is obviously quite alot of uncertainty regarding the breakdown.

Going to be interesting model watching in the next few days.

[grab my graupel]

Evening everyone, will open a new Model thread in a few minutes

[grab my graupel]

Link to new thread below - will close this shortly :winky: