January CET

[Mark Bayley]

I think Between 2c and 3c looks the most likely going by the current models and trends. If the ECM came off then it would take quite mild spell to bring back to average! Especially as it would stay cold for the first 2/3's of the month if it verified.

[The PIT]

Going for 3.5C

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

3.0C for me please

[Roger J Smith]

It's looking so cold, Craig Evans may revise down to 7.5.

Just think of this as the warmed up version of 1962-63 (possibly not so much warmed up either).

[Cymro]

I would like to change mine to 2.7 please

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

It's looking so cold, Craig Evans may revise down to 7.5.

Just think of this as the warmed up version of 1962-63 (possibly not so much warmed up either).

Edited December 29, 2009 by RAIN RAIN RAIN

[ukmoose]

Last update for tonight

15 3.4-C: paul tall

44 3.1-C: Supercell

8 0.1-C: trickydicky

37 0.2C: Optimus Prime

10 1.0C: Polar Gael

42 1.1C: NaDamantaSam

3 1.2C: Snowstorm1

53 1.5C: Gavin P

57 1.6C: snowlover2009

11 1.7C: LomondSnowstorm

67 1.8C: Roger J Smith

9 1.9C: alza

71 1.9C: Snowyowl9

72 1.9C: BLAST FROM THE PAST

47 2.0C: AderynCoch

49 2.0C: casparjack

45 2.1C: Iceni

56 2.1C: V for Very Cold

63 2.2C: vrtualsphere

65 2.3C: damianslaw

38 2.4C: sufc

39 2.6C: kold weather

51 2.6C: pjb120

60 2.7C: snowmaiden

80 2.7C: adamjones416

58 2.8C: Magamoonflake

6 2.9C: mike Meehan

48 2.9C: AtlanticFlamethrower

78 3.0C: RAIN RAIN RAIN

31 3.1C: Paul T

35 3.1C: izi

73 3.1C: The watcher

28 3.2C: Snowman0697

7 3.3C: Koppite

16 3.4C: Thundery wintry showers

46 3.4C: Anti-Mild

59 3.4C: SteveB

69 3.4C: DAVID SNOW

14 3.5C: BARRY

55 3.5C: Duncan McAllister

77 3.5C: The PIT

2 3.6C: mark bayley

1 3.7C: summer blizzard

19 3.8C: Mr Data

22 3.8C: Pete Tattum

41 3.8C: shuggee

50 3.8C: high ground birmingham

52 3.9C: Paul Sherman

23 4.0C: fozfoster

25 4.1C: osmposm

24 4.4C: Milhouse

13 4.5C: mullender83

12 4.9C: Paranoid

5 5.6C: James M

27 8.0C: Craig Evans

[Weather-history]

8C

Craig's value is dead as a dodo even at this stage and we haven't even got to January but seriously isn't about time you took it just a bit more seriously, Craig?

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Craig's value is dead as a dodo even at this stage and we haven't even got to January but seriously isn't about time you took it just a bit more seriously, Craig?

I often think that when he makes a ridiculously high guess every single month!

[Weather-history]

It's looking so cold, Craig Evans may revise down to 7.5.

:lol:

I often think that when he makes a ridiculously high guess every single month!

The closest he came was April 2007 and he was still 1.3C out!! :wacko:

[kold weather]

I think its highly likely looking at the set-up we will end up with a sub-zero first 10 days, esp if we can get into a SE airflow before the end of that period...

Therefore I have a question, whats the highest the CET has reached with the first 10 days below 0C?

[Weather-history]

Therefore I have a question, whats the highest the CET has reached with the first 10 days below 0C?

Wasn't the first 10 days of January 2009, sub zero and that ended up as 3.0C?

[Tom Quintavalle]

Bit later than most of you guys but I'll go for 3.2c.

Regards,

Tom.

[kold weather]

Yep it was and as you say it ended up at 3.0...

I was just wondering what is the realistic high point this month could go...as I suspect some people would already be in serious trouble if the first 10 days come off as per the models, for example the 5.6C estimate would require roughly 8.3C for the last 21 days, which whilst possible would be very impressive feat...something that can't have happened all that often in the last 109 years anyway...

The first 20 days of Jan 07 managed to achieve 8.335C and the period from the 10-30th of Jan 1796 also managed a similar total, so I'd guess if the first 10 days do come in close to sub zero that about 5.5-5.7C would be the utter top limit it seems...

Edited December 29, 2009 by kold weather

[davehsug]

Still can't believe we'll get below the magical mark, so it's bang on 3.0c for me please.

[ukmoose]

15 3.4-C: paul tall

44 3.1-C: Supercell

8 0.1-C: trickydicky

37 0.2C: Optimus Prime

10 1.0C: Polar Gael

42 1.1C: NaDamantaSam

3 1.2C: Snowstorm1

53 1.5C: Gavin P

57 1.6C: snowlover2009

11 1.7C: LomondSnowstorm

67 1.8C: Roger J Smith

9 1.9C: alza

71 1.9C: Snowyowl9

72 1.9C: BLAST FROM THE PAST

47 2.0C: AderynCoch

49 2.0C: casparjack

45 2.1C: Iceni

56 2.1C: V for Very Cold

63 2.2C: vrtualsphere

65 2.3C: damianslaw

38 2.4C: sufc

39 2.6C: kold weather

51 2.6C: pjb120

60 2.7C: snowmaiden

80 2.7C: adamjones416

58 2.8C: Magamoonflake

6 2.9C: mike Meehan

48 2.9C: AtlanticFlamethrower

78 3.0C: RAIN RAIN RAIN

90 3.0C: davehsug

31 3.1C: Paul T

35 3.1C: izi

73 3.1C: The watcher

28 3.2C: Snowman0697

88 3.2C: TomSE20

7 3.3C: Koppite

16 3.4C: Thundery wintry showers

46 3.4C: Anti-Mild

59 3.4C: SteveB

69 3.4C: DAVID SNOW

14 3.5C: BARRY

55 3.5C: Duncan McAllister

77 3.5C: The PIT

2 3.6C: mark bayley

1 3.7C: summer blizzard

19 3.8C: Mr Data

22 3.8C: Pete Tattum

41 3.8C: shuggee

50 3.8C: high ground birmingham

52 3.9C: Paul Sherman

23 4.0C: fozfoster

25 4.1C: osmposm

91 4.2C: ukmoose

24 4.4C: Milhouse

13 4.5C: mullender83

12 4.9C: Paranoid

5 5.6C: James M

27 8.0C: Craig Evans

Includes the latest guesses.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I will have 2.5C please

Ta muchly

[Weather-history]

Yep it was and as you say it ended up at 3.0...

I was just wondering what is the realistic high point this month could go...as I suspect some people would already be in serious trouble if the first 10 days come off as per the models, for example the 5.6C estimate would require roughly 8.3C for the last 21 days, which whilst possible would be very impressive feat...something that can't have happened all that often in the last 109 years anyway...

The first 20 days of Jan 07 managed to achieve 8.335C and the period from the 10-30th of Jan 1796 also managed a similar total, so I'd guess if the first 10 days do come in close to sub zero that about 5.5-5.7C would be the utter top limit it seems...

January 1868 is a pretty good example, reading reports from the time, the first third was very cold and frosty and the second third was much milder and unsettled. That ended as 3.9 for the CET

Both January 1893 and 1894 were very cold during the first half of both months, but had milder second halves and ended with CETs of 2.2 and 3.4 respectively.

Edited December 30, 2009 by Mr_Data

[ukmoose]

15 3.4-C: paul tall

44 3.1-C: Supercell

8 0.1-C: trickydicky

37 0.2C: Optimus Prime

10 1.0C: Polar Gael

42 1.1C: NaDamantaSam

3 1.2C: Snowstorm1

53 1.5C: Gavin P

57 1.6C: snowlover2009

11 1.7C: LomondSnowstorm

67 1.8C: Roger J Smith

9 1.9C: alza

71 1.9C: Snowyowl9

72 1.9C: BLAST FROM THE PAST

47 2.0C: AderynCoch

49 2.0C: casparjack

45 2.1C: Iceni

56 2.1C: V for Very Cold

63 2.2C: vrtualsphere

65 2.3C: damianslaw

38 2.4C: sufc

92 2.5C: North Sea Snow Convection

39 2.6C: kold weather

51 2.6C: pjb120

60 2.7C: snowmaiden

80 2.7C: adamjones416

58 2.8C: Magamoonflake

6 2.9C: mike Meehan

48 2.9C: AtlanticFlamethrower

78 3.0C: RAIN RAIN RAIN

90 3.0C: davehsug

31 3.1C: Paul T

35 3.1C: izi

73 3.1C: The watcher

28 3.2C: Snowman0697

88 3.2C: TomSE20

7 3.3C: Koppite

16 3.4C: Thundery wintry showers

46 3.4C: Anti-Mild

59 3.4C: SteveB

69 3.4C: DAVID SNOW

14 3.5C: BARRY

55 3.5C: Duncan McAllister

77 3.5C: The PIT

2 3.6C: mark bayley

1 3.7C: summer blizzard

19 3.8C: Mr Data

22 3.8C: Pete Tattum

41 3.8C: shuggee

50 3.8C: high ground birmingham

52 3.9C: Paul Sherman

23 4.0C: fozfoster

25 4.1C: osmposm

91 4.2C: ukmoose

24 4.4C: Milhouse

13 4.5C: mullender83

12 4.9C: Paranoid

5 5.6C: James M

27 8.0C: Craig Evans

There you go. Discounting Craig's guess, nothing higher than 5.6C.

[mk13]

I'll punt for 2.9C for January.

[Mark Bayley]

So far the average C.E.T prediction is 2.9c which is 1.3c below average. (Would be 2.8c (-1.4c) without Craig's 8c guess) When was the last time we had a sub 3c month or a winter month more than 1.5c below average? Certainly looks a cold for the first half of January!

Edited December 30, 2009 by mark bayley

[ukmoose]

So far the average C.E.T prediction is 2.9c which is 1.3c below average. (Would be 2.8c (-1.4c) without Craig's 8c guess) When was the last time we had a sub 3c month or a winter month more than 1.5c below average? Certainly looks a cold for the first half of January!

January 2009 was 3C (which is colder than I remember I must admit. Can't think of any particularly cold weather for January at all though clearly I am wrong.) Before that, we have to go back to 1997 to find a January CET below 3C (2.5C).

Then we have to go back another 10 years to January 1987 to find a Jan CET below 3C (0.8C).

So only two Januaries recording a CET of below 3 since 1987.

Five Januaries (2002, 2004, 2005, 2007 and 2008) in the noughties have recorded a CET of more than 5C.

[Ben_Cambs]

January 2009 was 3C (which is colder than I remember I must admit. Can't think of any particularly cold weather for January at all though clearly I am wrong.) Before that, we have to go back to 1997 to find a January CET below 3C (2.5C).

Then we have to go back another 10 years to January 1987 to find a Jan CET below 3C (0.8C).

So only two Januaries recording a CET of below 3 since 1987.

Five Januaries (2002, 2004, 2005, 2007 and 2008) in the noughties have recorded a CET of more than 5C.

It was very cold for the first 8 days, some days were sub zero. I remember seeing all of the lakes freezing up. But after that it was mostly average temperatures

[Cumulonimbus Tower]

3.0 on the nose for me please

[damianslaw]

Will January 2009 be the benchmark for this January, will it go the same way as last year, with a very cold start but then average/above average temps from the 11th onwards.

Somehow I don't think so, unlike last year the month will start with blocking in a much more favourable position for producing sustained cold, last year we saw heights only high near to the east of the country with no real pronounced scandi high and no greenland high whatsoever, this year we will be starting from a much more promising position for sustained cold to persevere at least through to mid month.

The real benchmark will be January 1997, good chance that this January will be colder than Jan 97 I feel.

Edited December 30, 2009 by damianslaw