January CET

[Cal]

2.2 please

[TonyH]

2.7c please.

[SNOW-MAN2006]

Well i suppose id better put a punt in! Cold- Very Cold First week or so, but i does seem likely to warm up in the second half of the month.... :/ so ill go for 2.4 Please

SNOw-MAN2006

[Typhoon John]

3.4C please.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

What is the record number of entries? Will Jan 10 beat it?

[artic fox]

2.5 Please :lol:

Edited December 30, 2009 by artic fox

[Norrance]

1.4C for me please.

[kold weather]

FWIW a fusion of Jan 97 and 09 probably isn't a bad comprasion to make with it slowly correcting throughout the month...

I'm willing to bet that a sub 3C month is on the cards, how cold of course depends on exactly how this evolves!

Regardless of what occurs I think a 0C CET mean for the first 10 days is highly possible, maybe even probable now...therefore anything above 6C will not happen and are already out of the question, even if we were to get a record brekaingly mild last 20 days.

Very interesting stuff from Mr.Data, 1868 did indeed have a decent correction to it...I'd probably say 1-3C is the most likely range right now but of course a prolonged mild spell would really raise the CET, similar to what we saw in March 2006.

[Typhoon John]

I'll change to a crazy 1.3C please.

Just because no one has chosen it yet and there's a chance for a very cold month imo (even though I think my guess of 3.4C was more realistic)!

[kold weather]

FWIW the 18z GFS comes in at around -0.75C roughly for the first half of the month.

So impressive cold being progged for the first half of the month, of course if we were to get a strong warm up from then onwards we'd still be able to see a big correction to the CET...but for now I'd favour a sub 3C month over a plus 3C month...

[stewfox]

Never had a -0.5c so why not ??

[Polar Side]

1.8C for me please.

[Jack Wales]

I'll plump for 3.3°C please

Edited December 31, 2009 by Jack Wales

[Don]

OK, time for my punt for the 1st month of the new decade. Think I'll push the boat out and go for a CET of:

2.5C

Could this Winter be the one we've been waiting for so long?.....

Edited December 31, 2009 by Don

[lostobsessed]

Im Gunna Go For About 3.6c

[Guest]

Month: Jan Feb Mar Apr

1940: -1.3, 2.2, 5.6, 8.0

1947: 1.8, -2.0, 3.2, 8.0

1942: 0.9, -0.1, 4.7, 8.5

1956: 3.3, -0.6, 5.7, 6.2

1963: -2.3, -1.2, 5.4, 7.9

1979: -0.3, 0.9, 4.1, 7.2

1986: 3.1, -1.3, 4.6, 5.4

Showing the Jan to April Cet's which have at least one month of negative values negative from 1914 to the present date, There were none for December at all.

I could show you the max as well but then nobody has a real interest in these, do they?

Just food for thought.

Edited December 31, 2009 by mike Meehan

[Great Plum]

It has to be 2.1c for me...

How do I know? I just do!

[ukmoose]

15 3.4-C: paul tall

44 3.1-C: Supercell

8 0.1-C: trickydicky

37 0.2C: Optimus Prime

10 1.0C: Polar Gael

42 1.1C: NaDamantaSam

3 1.2C: Snowstorm1

109 1.3C: fozi999

107 1.4C: Norrance

53 1.5C: Gavin P

57 1.6C: snowlover2009

11 1.7C: LomondSnowstorm

67 1.8C: Roger J Smith

112 1.8C: Polar Side

9 1.9C: alza

71 1.9C: Snowyowl9

72 1.9C: BLAST FROM THE PAST

47 2.0C: AderynCoch

49 2.0C: casparjack

45 2.1C: Iceni

56 2.1C: V for Very Cold

117 2.1C: Great Plum

63 2.2C: vrtualsphere

101 2.2C: Cal

65 2.3C: damianslaw

38 2.4C: sufc

103 2.4C: SNOW-MAN2006

92 2.5C: North Sea Snow Convection

106 2.5C: artic fox

114 2.5C: Don

39 2.6C: kold weather

51 2.6C: pjb120

60 2.7C: snowmaiden

80 2.7C: adamjones416

102 2.7C: Tonyh

58 2.8C: Magamoonflake

6 2.9C: mike Meehan

48 2.9C: AtlanticFlamethrower

95 2.9C: mk13

78 3.0C: RAIN RAIN RAIN

90 3.0C: davehsug

99 3.0C: ned

31 3.1C: Paul T

35 3.1C: izi

73 3.1C: The watcher

28 3.2C: Snowman0697

88 3.2C: TomSE20

118 3.2C: ukmoose

7 3.3C: Koppite

113 3.3C: Jack Wales

16 3.4C: Thundery wintry showers

46 3.4C: Anti-Mild

59 3.4C: SteveB

69 3.4C: DAVID SNOW

14 3.5C: BARRY

55 3.5C: Duncan McAllister

77 3.5C: The PIT

2 3.6C: mark bayley

115 3.6C: lostobsessed

1 3.7C: summer blizzard

19 3.8C: Mr Data

22 3.8C: Pete Tattum

41 3.8C: shuggee

50 3.8C: high ground birmingham

52 3.9C: Paul Sherman

23 4.0C: fozfoster

25 4.1C: osmposm

24 4.4C: Milhouse

13 4.5C: mullender83

12 4.9C: Paranoid

5 5.6C: James M

27 8.0C: Craig Evans

Here is the up to date and revised CET list.

72 entries so far. I think the record is over 100? Maybe wrong.

[Mr Maunder]

Making the assumption that the cold is going to be difficult to shift I'll go for 1.6c.

Here's hoping that 2010 is going to bring a greater degree of accuracy than my disastrous efforts in 2009!

MM

[ukmoose]

15 3.4-C: paul tall

44 3.1-C: Supercell

8 0.1-C: trickydicky

37 0.2C: Optimus Prime

10 1.0C: Polar Gael

42 1.1C: NaDamantaSam

3 1.2C: Snowstorm1

109 1.3C: fozi999

107 1.4C: Norrance

53 1.5C: Gavin P

57 1.6C: snowlover2009

119 1.6C: Mr Maunder

11 1.7C: LomondSnowstorm

67 1.8C: Roger J Smith

112 1.8C: Polar Side

9 1.9C: alza

71 1.9C: Snowyowl9

72 1.9C: BLAST FROM THE PAST

47 2.0C: AderynCoch

49 2.0C: casparjack

45 2.1C: Iceni

56 2.1C: V for Very Cold

117 2.1C: Great Plum

63 2.2C: vrtualsphere

101 2.2C: Cal

65 2.3C: damianslaw

38 2.4C: sufc

103 2.4C: SNOW-MAN2006

92 2.5C: North Sea Snow Convection

106 2.5C: artic fox

114 2.5C: Don

39 2.6C: kold weather

51 2.6C: pjb120

60 2.7C: snowmaiden

80 2.7C: adamjones416

102 2.7C: Tonyh

58 2.8C: Magamoonflake

6 2.9C: mike Meehan

48 2.9C: AtlanticFlamethrower

95 2.9C: mk13

78 3.0C: RAIN RAIN RAIN

90 3.0C: davehsug

99 3.0C: ned

31 3.1C: Paul T

35 3.1C: izi

73 3.1C: The watcher

28 3.2C: Snowman0697

88 3.2C: TomSE20

118 3.2C: ukmoose

7 3.3C: Koppite

113 3.3C: Jack Wales

16 3.4C: Thundery wintry showers

46 3.4C: Anti-Mild

59 3.4C: SteveB

69 3.4C: DAVID SNOW

14 3.5C: BARRY

55 3.5C: Duncan McAllister

77 3.5C: The PIT

2 3.6C: mark bayley

115 3.6C: lostobsessed

1 3.7C: summer blizzard

19 3.8C: Mr Data

22 3.8C: Pete Tattum

41 3.8C: shuggee

50 3.8C: high ground birmingham

52 3.9C: Paul Sherman

23 4.0C: fozfoster

25 4.1C: osmposm

24 4.4C: Milhouse

13 4.5C: mullender83

12 4.9C: Paranoid

5 5.6C: James M

27 8.0C: Craig Evans

[DR Hosking]

I will go for 3.3c

[kold weather]

Amazing to see so many below average predicitions, not surprising however it has to be said given the models and how cold they are still for the first 10 days and given how the global teleconnections look.

Anyway I think I'll wait to the 12z but I think I need to update my forecast, my 2.6C is likely too high based on the trends I'm seeing at the moment and the chances of another rebound of the -ve NAO between the 15-20th...a severe month is possible now IMO.

Also a first 10 days coming in below 0C looks just about nailed on now even assuming the most progressive of breakdowns comes off, which I'm now certain it won't...

Anyway lets see how this month compares with 2009 and 1997 which also both had cold starts...

[Richard Lake]

So whats the average of those having a punt? I'll have a guess at a CET of 4.0. First half of the month very cold, second half very mild - months always seem to average out again

[reef]

Not often I would dare to go this low, but its certainly looking to be a cold first half to the month at the very least.

2.8C for me.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I originally went for 3.4C but I'm going to have to revise it downwards a touch as I can see the first half coming in around zero and the second half is unlikely to be much above 5C. 2.7C please, just scraping into the sub-3C category for the first time since January 1997.