January CET

[Ben_Cambs]

I would like mine to be revised down too, as I wasnt expecting a prolonged cold spell on this scale a few days ago. 2.5C please

[ukmoose]

15 3.4-C: paul tall

44 3.1-C: Supercell

8 0.1-C: trickydicky

37 0.2C: Optimus Prime

10 1.0C: Polar Gael

42 1.1C: NaDamantaSam

3 1.2C: Snowstorm1

109 1.3C: fozi999

107 1.4C: Norrance

53 1.5C: Gavin P

57 1.6C: snowlover2009

119 1.6C: Mr Maunder

11 1.7C: LomondSnowstorm

67 1.8C: Roger J Smith

112 1.8C: Polar Side

9 1.9C: alza

71 1.9C: Snowyowl9

72 1.9C: BLAST FROM THE PAST

47 2.0C: AderynCoch

49 2.0C: casparjack

45 2.1C: Iceni

56 2.1C: V for Very Cold

117 2.1C: Great Plum

63 2.2C: vrtualsphere

101 2.2C: Cal

65 2.3C: damianslaw

38 2.4C: sufc

103 2.4C: SNOW-MAN2006

92 2.5C: North Sea Snow Convection

106 2.5C: artic fox

114 2.5C: Don

126 2.5C: Snowman0697

39 2.6C: kold weather

51 2.6C: pjb120

60 2.7C: snowmaiden

80 2.7C: adamjones416

102 2.7C: Tonyh

125 2.7C: Thundery wintry showers

58 2.8C: Magamoonflake

124 2.8C: reef

6 2.9C: mike Meehan

48 2.9C: AtlanticFlamethrower

95 2.9C: mk13

78 3.0C: RAIN RAIN RAIN

90 3.0C: davehsug

99 3.0C: ned

31 3.1C: Paul T

35 3.1C: izi

73 3.1C: The watcher

88 3.2C: TomSE20

118 3.2C: ukmoose

7 3.3C: Koppite

113 3.3C: Jack Wales

121 3.3C: DR Hosking

46 3.4C: Anti-Mild

59 3.4C: SteveB

69 3.4C: DAVID SNOW

14 3.5C: BARRY

55 3.5C: Duncan McAllister

77 3.5C: The PIT

2 3.6C: mark bayley

115 3.6C: lostobsessed

1 3.7C: summer blizzard

19 3.8C: Mr Data

22 3.8C: Pete Tattum

41 3.8C: shuggee

50 3.8C: high ground birmingham

52 3.9C: Paul Sherman

23 4.0C: fozfoster

123 4.0C: rikki

25 4.1C: osmposm

24 4.4C: Milhouse

13 4.5C: mullender83

12 4.9C: Paranoid

5 5.6C: James M

27 8.0C: Craig Evans

Only 5 guesses above the January average so far. Several revisions downwards in the list above.

Can we really get a sub 3 month after all these years? I guess it's on the cards the way things stand...

[chionomaniac]

Very cold first half, average second half with very mild end. 2.9ºC please. It can be done!

Oh and will stratos interupt his New Year countdown to get his guess in just before deadline?

[Devon-Nelly]

I think it looks possible for quite a cold Janurary this year as well as Feb.

Starting off cold/very cold and remaining so for the first couple of weeks with the risk of some very very cold weather during the latter part, before slowly turning less cold and eventually milder from the south just after mid-month it may well stay quite cold/cool across northern areas before turning very cold across most areas with avengence during the latter part of the month and this could well set us up for Feb.

I think its going to be another wet month especailly across the east, though it will be drier in the west during the first half.

My lucky punt for this month (although i feel quite strange predicting it so low) is 2.2c.

[ukmoose]

It was very cold for the first 8 days, some days were sub zero. I remember seeing all of the lakes freezing up. But after that it was mostly average temperatures

Thanks for that - I just can't remember it at all.

In fact the month of January 09 is a bit of a blur. I am amazed it came in at only 3C - the coldest winter month since when - 97? I certainly don't recall any snowfall for this part of the world. If the first week or so was cold, the rest of the month must have been pretty unremarkable with just a steady rise in the CET but nothing exceptional.

Hard to believe - or was it one of those months where the CET was affected by lower temperatures in the northern part of the CET much more so than the southern part?

[kold weather]

Only 5 guesses above the January average so far. Several revisions downwards in the list above.

Can we really get a sub 3 month after all these years? I guess it's on the cards the way things stand...

Yep not all that surprising so few have gone above average, in fact what is surprising is so many have gone above 3C given the broad global teleconnections at the moment and the fact that the first 10 days should come in around 0C...however I suppose its the fact that we've not seen many months that have come close to this broad set-up in the N.Hemisphere in the last 2 decades so its hardly surprising given people are so used to months not getting below 3C that many people seem to believe it can't be done.

If I had to make a range of which my update will fall into, I'd put it between 1.5-2.5C right now, will wait for the 12z sutie of models/ensembles though before making up my mind.

UKmoose, 2009 was a month where generally the first 10 days were broadly dominated by high pressure, we did have a strong -ve NAO for a few days but the angle of the high wasn't really good enough to bring in the upper cold and instead we got a cold surface feed. The res tof the month was a little above average but not by a huge amount...

The fact Jan 2009 got 3.0 should show why I think this month has every shot at going sub 3C...Jan 1997 was colder at the start but was also above average past the 10th for a good part of the rest of the month (nothing too mild mind you, broadly between 4.5-6C) and that month came in at 2.5C...

Edited December 31, 2009 by kold weather

[ukmoose]

Yep not all that surprising so few have gone above average, in fact what is surprising is so many have gone above 3C given the broad global teleconnections at the moment and the fact that the first 10 days should come in around 0C...however I suppose its the fact that we've not seen many months that have come close to this broad set-up in the N.Hemisphere in the last 2 decades so its hardly surprising given people are so used to months not getting below 3C that many people seem to believe it can't be done.

If I had to make a range of which my update will fall into, I'd put it between 1.5-2.5C right now, will wait for the 12z sutie of models/ensembles though before making up my mind.

I might do the same then!

[Optimus Prime]

We do still have to remember we are sailing in a different boat to the 80s here. February 2009 had a cold first half but one of the warmest on record for the second half.

We are still warming up but with the synoptic the way they are we're drawing in a cold pattern. But once that breaks I wouldn't bet against a fiery hell being unleashed during the second half of this month.

I very much doubt that and I think it'll remain cold but you just never know these days, especially after that 2006/2007 warm period which everyone's conveniently forgotton.

[kold weather]

I quite agree OP, March 2006 was another month that was heading towards being exceptionally cold but got warmer towards the very end...

Of course the big difference this time is the global teleconnections all support a cold set-up staying put or possibly reoccuring at least once more before this month is out even if we do breakdown...thats why I've been so bold with regards to thinking sub 3C is most likely...of course it could easily backfire yet!

As I said before the utter top limit is about 5.5C, that would be assuming the last 20 days come out around record breakingly mild, something which I think has no chance of happening...

Realisitically the real top limit would probably be about 4.5-5C which would require about 6-7C roughly over a 21 day period, possible if we were to get a decent Bartlett set-up. The highest we've been with a sub 0C with the first 10 days since 1850 was as Mr.Data said 3.9C in 1868, first 10 days come in at -0.1C...

[phil nw.]

2.3C please.for Jan 2010.

[Stu_London]

Sub 2C month for me.

Proper cold, followed by surface cold, a bit more mobile at the end of the month.

I expect us to run below zero for a significant part of the month

Edited to add: 1.6C = my guess

Edited December 31, 2009 by Stu_London

[sundog]

2.2c for me please.

[Snowly does it]

I am going to take a stab at my initial estimate being too high - please reduce my guess to 1.9.

[Duncan McAlister]

2nd half of the month would have to be in the region of 7.5+ to bring the CET above 3 going by the 12z. Quite often though a very cold start can be cancelled out by a very mild second half. Could be a kind of 'bottling up' of heat the longer it stays away? February looked nailed on to be below 3, even Stratos Ferric was believing! but who knows. I'm not going to change my prediction and jinx it. It should be an eventful month for CET watching.

Edited December 31, 2009 by Duncan McAlister

[kold weather]

Yep a very mild second half would be needed, though Feb is more likely to be able to do that sort of warming in a proper SW/SSW then Jan is typically...

Anyway the pattern is now just about locked in for the first 10 days and thus I think with high confidence we should come in below 0C for that period. After that and much depends on the evolution of the upper high over the Atlantic/UK region...

Needless to say its going to be very tough to get above average already and anyone stabbing at above average is already onto a loser IMO....

[Duncan McAlister]

On second thoughts I'm going to change my guess to 2.8C. If the CET does end up below 3C it'll be nice to be able to say I predicted it

[Tom D]

I'm going to put confidence in this cold spell lasting a while - 1.6c.

[J10]

I'm going to regret this.

2.9c

[Stargazer]

Better get my punt in...

3.4 for me.

[Duncan McAlister]

I'm going to put confidence in this cold spell lasting a while - 1.6c.

Is that a dash or a minus?

[ukmoose]

I'm going to put confidence in this cold spell lasting a while - 1.6c.

Sorry, is that 1.6 or minus 1.6 C ?

[kold weather]

I'm going to regret this.

2.9c

Yeah I suspect you will regret not going lower

Rather rare that a pattern flip change to cold happens right at the start of the month rather then in the middle like it has most times before in recent years...

One final thing though, if we do flip to mild then it could well be with a southerly airflow but I think thats a rather long time away yet and we could well see a reload with regards to the -ve NAO before then...

Watch the 3.0 barrier tumble...we hope haha!

[ukmoose]

OK

15 3.4-C: paul tall

44 3.1-C: Supercell

8 0.1-C: trickydicky

37 0.2C: Optimus Prime

10 1.0C: Polar Gael

42 1.1C: NaDamantaSam

3 1.2C: Snowstorm1

109 1.3C: fozi999

107 1.4C: Norrance

53 1.5C: Gavin P

57 1.6C: snowlover2009

119 1.6C: Mr Maunder

136 1.6C: Stu London

11 1.7C: LomondSnowstorm

67 1.8C: Roger J Smith

112 1.8C: Polar Side

9 1.9C: alza

71 1.9C: Snowyowl9

72 1.9C: BLAST FROM THE PAST

138 1.9C: snowmaiden

47 2.0C: AderynCoch

49 2.0C: casparjack

45 2.1C: Iceni

56 2.1C: V for Very Cold

117 2.1C: Great Plum

129 2.2C: Devon-Nelly

63 2.2C: vrtualsphere

101 2.2C: Cal

137 2.2C: sundog

65 2.3C: damianslaw

135 2.3C: phil n.warks

38 2.4C: sufc

103 2.4C: SNOW-MAN2006

92 2.5C: North Sea Snow Convection

106 2.5C: artic fox

114 2.5C: Don

126 2.5C: Snowman0697

39 2.6C: kold weather

51 2.6C: pjb120

80 2.7C: adamjones416

102 2.7C: Tonyh

125 2.7C: Thundery wintry showers

58 2.8C: Magamoonflake

124 2.8C: reef

141 2.8C: Duncan McAllister

6 2.9C: mike Meehan

48 2.9C: AtlanticFlamethrower

95 2.9C: mk13

128 2.9C: chionomaniac

143 2.9C: JACKONE

78 3.0C: RAIN RAIN RAIN

90 3.0C: davehsug

99 3.0C: ned

31 3.1C: Paul T

35 3.1C: izi

73 3.1C: The watcher

88 3.2C: TomSE20

118 3.2C: ukmoose

7 3.3C: Koppite

113 3.3C: Jack Wales

121 3.3C: DR Hosking

46 3.4C: Anti-Mild

59 3.4C: SteveB

69 3.4C: DAVID SNOW

144 3.4C: Stargazer

14 3.5C: BARRY

77 3.5C: The PIT

2 3.6C: mark bayley

115 3.6C: lostobsessed

1 3.7C: summer blizzard

19 3.8C: Mr Data

22 3.8C: Pete Tattum

41 3.8C: shuggee

50 3.8C: high ground birmingham

52 3.9C: Paul Sherman

23 4.0C: fozfoster

123 4.0C: rikki

25 4.1C: osmposm

24 4.4C: Milhouse

13 4.5C: mullender83

12 4.9C: Paranoid

5 5.6C: James M

27 8.0C: Craig Evans

Still time for the late punters.

Much as I am tempted by the thought of breaking the 3 barrier I am going to stick just above 3 minded by the blow torch effect that has ruined all sub 3 prospects in recent years. Just hope I'm wrong.

Last post from me so for all those with latish entries (SF?) I will update tomorrow. (Any double entries or errors please let me know).

A Happy and Peaceful New Year to one and all and let's hope we get what we all wish for, weather-wise and beyond.

Edited December 31, 2009 by ukmoose

[Kentish Man]

3.7C for me please

[BurwellWeatherWatch]

2.3 please