South West England Cold Spell Discussion

[dogs32]

Must admit, I still think it will be hill snow only round us i'm afraid, unless the low shifts a little to the south. Lets hope I'm wrong!

R

I have the same concern's,But just wishing and praying this cold air cut's it enough for it to be heavy snowfall....

One thing on ouR side which I have said many times is that we often do well in these S/W snow events..

Weatheronline have the snow as far as M4 CORRIDOR

we could do with part 9

Edited December 27, 2009 by dogs32

[Jayfromcardiff]

I have the same concern's,But just wishing and praying this cold air cut's it enough for it to be heavy snowfall....

One thing on ouR side which I have said many times is that we often do well in these S/W snow events..

Weatheronline have the snow as far as M4 CORRIDOR

Lol, this stuff is exciting mate.... can't wait.

[dogs32]

Lol, this stuff is exciting mate.... can't wait.

Jay will I get any snow

yes...your in the firing line mate.

Look forward to your report's on Tuesday morning

[Jayfromcardiff]

Jay will I get any snow

yes...your in the firing line mate.

Look forward to your report's on Tuesday morning

Question is Will it snow in Cardiff? lol.

[dogs32]

Metmonkey's slant on thing's

40% Moderate confidence has been upgraded for parts of Northern England due to the expectation of a more northerly tracking low. Scope for an upgrade is possible.

Potentially significant to major falls of snow 10 – 20cm is possible in the worst affected areas with values close to 30cm or in excess to higher ground.

It is now with 40% moderate confidence that parts of Wales and the West Midlands will be most at risk of snowfall, some potentially significant or major with the possibility of severe disruption to travel networks as a result.

Edited December 27, 2009 by dogs32

[Jayfromcardiff]

Metmonkey's slant on thing's

40% Moderate confidence has been upgraded for parts of Northern England due to the expectation of a more northerly tracking low. Scope for an upgrade is possible.

Potentially significant to major falls of snow 10 – 20cm is possible in the worst affected areas with values close to 30cm or in excess to higher ground.

It is now with 40% moderate confidence that parts of Wales and the West Midlands will be most at risk of snowfall, some potentially significant or major with the possibility of severe disruption to travel networks as a result.

Personally i've never heard of the site so i won't take any notice lol.

[dogs32]

Personally i've never heard of the site so i won't take any notice lol.

Yea I agree to be honest,I was just looking around.

I have seen these sites before and I myself dont think much of them,maybe its the layout.

Looking good though Jay!

In fact its better for you than me

Edited December 27, 2009 by dogs32

[Jayfromcardiff]

Yea I agree to be honest,I was just looking around.

I have seen these sites before and I myself dont think much of them,maybe its the layout.

Looking good though Jay!

In fact its better for you than me

Not sure lol, BBC going for some snow early hours of tuesday then rain, then rain wednesday... confusing.

[Lynxus]

Nice to see the metoffice have nothing for friday ( the day that should be giving us LOADS!, Plx quote me on this when you get snowed in.. OK ? )

Then again it sonly 1:18am lol

Edited December 28, 2009 by Lynxus

[Tommyyy]

Nice to see the metoffice have nothing for friday ( the day that should be giving us LOADS!, Plx quote me on this when you get snowed in.. OK ? )

Then again it sonly 1:18am lol

REALLY!

The bbc forcasted heavy snow am .... light snow pm

Me thinks someones have a christmas tiff! :L

[kumquat]

Met Monkey have a great forecaster in the shape of Thermohaline Conveyor. I trust him above all others in terms of amateur/versus professional forecasters. Remember its only 40% for our region though. There are other good forecasters on that site though and what I like about it most is their teaching philosophy. Several of the younger members are now , in their own right, rather good at reading the models and putting their own interpretation in.

Personally I'm seeing a rain event for Bristol but I hope this turns to snow as the front recedes. Doesn't seem to be enough support for colder uppers down here when the low's ppn hits us.

[mackerel sky]

However, GFS has a frequently overly-cold / snowy bias, as those of us in my business are frequently reminded by the expert forecasters at UKMO.

Great to have you as a poster on here... not sure then I agree with the bias, because the GFS does not perform well with marginal, frontal snowfall moving up from the south or south-west. The automated GFS output always goes for rain or at best sleet until it hits higher ground if thicknesses are > 530 and 850s > -3C. Here in Northamptonshire we had forecast for rain on the 5th February from the main BBC forecast, BBC Look East and the MetOffice, yet got 7 inches of snow. The GFS went for rain also. On the 6th of February we were forecast a brief rain/snow event by the MetOffice and got 8 inches of snow. In those instances everyone was wrong. The GFS does overdo the cold sometimes in southern Britain from a bog standard Northerly toppler, but the BBC forecasts in a sustained cold spell overdo the temperatures by as much as 5 degrees. Until Christmas Eve, for a whole week, the highest temperature I recorded here was +0.3C, despite Look East and the national forecast implying temperatures as high as 5C at times. The GFS didn't...

What it isn't about is Nowcasting, because that is not a forecast. Nothing worse than severe weather warnings appearing on the MetOffice website or from the BBC when the severe weather is already there, and see more counties involved. Anyone can do that.

But frontal snowfall from southerly tracking low pressure systems can be a problem and I accept that.

Keep up the posting mucka!

[Methuselah]

Anyhoo, time for a new thread...

Closing now...