Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[grab my graupel]

Please continue

[Costa Del Fal]

Been out all day and had a quick look at the BBC Maps and it would suggest we are in for alot of snow. A little time for change yet.

[nats]

Been out all day and had a quick look at the BBC Maps and it would suggest we are in for alot of snow. A little time for change yet.

certainly looks like it if BBC weather to be believed

[Costa Del Fal]

certainly looks like it if BBC weather to be believed

I think we are looking at falls close to that of February 2007 with a good chance it could be even worse. It looks like we could see pretty much snow all day Tuesday and possibly much of Wednesday!

The West Midlands and Wales could see a rather severe event.

[dogs32]

I think we are looking at falls close to that of February 2007 with a good chance it could be even worse. It looks like we could see pretty much snow all day Tuesday and possibly much of Wednesday!

The West Midlands and Wales could see a rather severe event.

yea thats the impression Im getting off Ian Fergusson,mentioning a possability this front could stall...

Could get substantial amount's

[Nick L]

I hope everything stays at is, no movement south and certainly no movement north. We could get a seriously good event here!

[cyclonic happiness]

I just want enough snow so as I may not get the front door open without climbing out of the upstairs window with a shovel!

Is that too much to ask?

Edited December 27, 2009 by cyclonic happiness

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I hope everything stays at is, no movement south and certainly no movement north. We could get a seriously good event here!

have you seen steve murr's post in the model thread? on the ecmwf, looks good for us, although cannock seems to be in a snow to rain zone, stafford all snow

[Nick L]

have you seen steve murr's post in the model thread? on the ecmwf, looks good for us, although cannock seems to be in a snow to rain zone, stafford all snow

Yeah I saw it too. Told you it would be, I bloody told you :lol:

[I remember Atlantic 252]

The concern I still have is about how cold the air the front runs into to. It's not entrenched cold and that worries me more than anything else but if it is snow then potentially a huge event is on the cards for you guys down there, my personal call would be for the heaviest falls certainly Tues/Weds from a line from Newtown in Wales thru Brum to Leicester.

but most websites/models have it as far north as manchester? yeah the air its moving into a bit of a worry but im sure it aill get colder ahead of the front with possible frost tonight, then an easterly before front arrives, not a beast but similar to feb 2007

[dogs32]

This is sounding more and more like 81/82 or maybe better or worse depends how you look at it.

[Nick L]

The concern I still have is about how cold the air the front runs into to. It's not entrenched cold and that worries me more than anything else but if it is snow then potentially a huge event is on the cards for you guys down there, my personal call would be for the heaviest falls certainly Tues/Weds from a line from Newtown in Wales thru Brum to Leicester.

If we don't get anything I will try and persuade my Dad to take me to the hills of Mid Wales, there should be at least 20cm or snow up there.

I can't believe that we are so close to this event yet we don't have a clue about what is going to happen!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

just caught the end of rob mcelwee on channel 503, looked good for tuesday, but milder with rain everywhere on wednesday

[azores92]

just caught the end of rob mcelwee on channel 503, looked good for tuesday, but milder with rain everywhere on wednesday

yh same here, im not sure if this highlights the uncertainty that wednesday presents?

[Costa Del Fal]

40cm Jackpot on Steve Murr's post on Wednesday in the Wales, West Midlands area-probably Wales.

This could certainly be an event to remember if it comes off.

[conor123]

Yet the GFS yet again on the 18z is having none of it??

[dogs32]

W09,

It certainly look's more promising for me,

I dont know what to think of the depth's at present but just glad Im in one of the chosen areas for Blizzard condition's or heavy snowfall.

Still it might change before Tuesday,But I am amazed at Ian Fergusson's forcasting over the last week.

He as been very accurate and alway's said The North Glos and Cotsworlds were in line for a nasty snowfall early today and yesterday I think.

Still early days though for me.

Just glad like you lot Im in with a chance now..

Edited December 27, 2009 by dogs32

[Jaybe]

Yet the GFS yet again on the 18z is having none of it??

Yes seems that way, just checked it and no snow forecast at all - also noticed the 'amount' of precipitation is not as much as the earlier runs.

[Costa Del Fal]

The GFS continues to be rather on its own. Pretty much everyone else is with an agreement-cant see what the GFS' problem is!

[NorthantsSnow]

Latest BBC forecast looked good. Snowline was nowhere near as far north as some of you guys are suggesting.

[Nick L]

Is the GFS fast becoming a cannon fodder model?

[azores92]

i think we should be waiting for gfs to come on board personally, before we start getting over excited. despite the fact it has little support, it has been consistent in its views recently, and has on some occasions been the leading model this winter. as it stands, if the other models are right, weather09 has made a good prediction imho, and the highest amounts, over higher ground, are likely to be up to 20cm. february 07 was a very good snowfall for the midlands, and therefore would be hard to beat, but if the majority of models are right, this should be a good indicator.

[NorthantsSnow]

In case anyone missed it, here's where the BBC thinks the snow will be Tuesday lunchtime:

Apologies for the relatively poor picture quality but should give you a fairly good idea. I was pleasantly surprised by how far south it was!

[A.J]

The GFS continues to be rather on its own. Pretty much everyone else is with an agreement-cant see what the GFS' problem is!

Is the GFS fast becoming a cannon fodder model?

Write the GFS model off at your peril...At the moment (and for the past few runs) its been at loggerheads with ECM/UKMO et al, suggesting they're correct and its wrong, but the GFS Runs could be bang on the mark, and the fallout would be biggest virtual suicide an internet forum has ever seen!!!

[dogs32]

In case anyone missed it, here's where the BBC thinks the snow will be Tuesday lunchtime:

Apologies for the relatively poor picture quality but should give you a fairly good idea. I was pleasantly surprised by how far south it was!

Im surprised how wide it is

also more North

Edited December 27, 2009 by dogs32