Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[MKN]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/ the forecast on the website, which as updated at 7am would be taking into account the ukmo and gfs doesnt look bad for the midlands still. Im interested to see what the mettoffice warnings say as today if were still in for 2-5cms or more then a severe weather warning should be issued since its only24 hours away. The best bet really is somewhere between the gme/ecm and the gfs/ukmo. The latest fax at +84 which has been updated is more inline with the ecm.

[A.J]

hmm....latest charts suggest to me a rain only event south of the Pennines, apart from some wintery stuff on the highest ground...sorry to be a party pooper!

[03jtrickey]

I still think tomorrow's weather is up in the air at the moment

[Bolton67]

Hmmm

What a kick to the testicles this is turning out to be.

[berometer]

Is Nottingham going to get some decent snow from this? Everytime we expect it either falls around us or the models change at the last minute. Please dont let this be the case because it was looking so good for us our local news website was saying upto 20cm now there are no headlines at all regarding snow.

Edited December 28, 2009 by berometer

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Hmmm

What a kick to the testicles this is turning out to be.

no it isnt . Why is everyone down??????????

Listen to the words coming out of his mouth , disruptive snow for the mids , nothing about it turning to rain , yes the beeb does show the leading edge as rain which is what was said in the 1st place , a rain to snow event . But he didnt say anythin of the sort and i no from experience the beeb forecasts are not stable and quite inacurate at times . We'r enetering a very snowy spell now and have nothing to be gutted about

[Bolton67]

no it isnt . Why is everyone down??????????

Listen to the words coming out of his mouth , disruptive snow for the mids , nothing about it turning to rain , yes the beeb does show the leading edge as rain which is what was said in the 1st place , a rain to snow event . But he didnt say anythin of the sort and i no from experience the beeb forecasts are not stable and quite inacurate at times . We'r enetering a very snowy spell now and have nothing to be gutted about

Well I'm not very enthusiastic for our chances in the East Mids for the snow event tues into wed.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

definitely need the front/low further south, hopefully it will trend south, the fax charts do look good, front not extending that far north,

seems to be rather patchy as well now, so wintry mix rather than snow this far south

[berometer]

Well I'm not very enthusiastic for our chances in the East Mids for the snow event tues into wed.

Mate our part Notts is still looking good I think you might get something out of this because your not that far from us and our website is forecasting 20 to 30cm. Ps does anybody use these boards from Notts not many disscusions involving Nottm people.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Very disappointing this morning, and a tremendous call by the GFS flying in the face of all the rest of the output. Possibly just a brief period of snow tomorrow but it turns to rain, then we head towards what will be another cold dry spell for the region...

Couldnt be more wrong.

Thats not what iv got from the charts . The bbc dont think so , the gfs is on its own really . Even if the band goes into northen england it comes bk south thurs. With endless potenial there after .

[berometer]

Is the gfs chart broken or will the beeb forecast be another c*ck up like previous years? Reading some comments has left me very confused as to wether we will get snow or it will be a damp squib/non event.

[dogs32]

Thankfully the Met O have ignored their model as the front doesn't get anywhere near Scotland.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2a.gif

I mean this in the nicest possible way but I really hope this is the case. I would be pleased to see members in Wales/W Midlands experience some heavy snow as these have missed out during our last cold spell. Also what follows afterwards would be beneficial for the whole of the UK.

Im getting confused what people are saying because the guy on the BBC national just now had the snow(mostly) from M4 northward's conveyouring across the country from East to West with NOT much movement North...

for over quite a long period.

edit...sorry Dave Im not supposed to be quoting you,,,,Laptop as done this by mistake,its faulty.

Its just a general Q to anyone.

edit..Its also in the WRONG THREAD!!!

Edited December 28, 2009 by dogs32

[berometer]

I think everyone is confused I have a feeling that the charts will suprise a few of us tonight I suppose it's just a case of lampost watching and not belieiving the fax charts until closer to the event.

[Crimson_Sprite]

Is Nottingham going to get some decent snow from this? Everytime we expect it either falls around us or the models change at the last minute. Please dont let this be the case because it was looking so good for us our local news website was saying upto 20cm now there are no headlines at all regarding snow.

There is no way Nottingham will get snow, it never does! We got 1/2inch out of the last cold snap we just came out of. I reckon it will be rain-rain-rain, with W.mids getting snow at first before it turns to rain. The cold air wont reach this far south yet before the low comes north, i reckon, so it just doesnt look good to me. (I really hope I am insanely wrong though )

Mate our part Notts is still looking good I think you might get something out of this because your not that far from us and our website is forecasting 20 to 30cm. Ps does anybody use these boards from Notts not many disscusions involving Nottm people.

I do!!! I live smack bang in the middle of Notts! Trying to move to Derbyshire Peak District for better weather lol!!

read my avatar!!

[carinthian]

Morning, we used to deal with these kind of synoptics way back in the winters of the 60s and late 70s on a fairly regular basis and without the imput of high speed numericals every 3 hours. Based on what I see and from experience it is going to be a difficult to whether :

1. Its snow or rain ?

2. How far north the precipition going to extend.

A decision has to be made. Historically, these set ups rarely produce snowfalls from NORTH of the Wash to the Mersey. I would expect rain or sleet in the East Midlands and the main snowfall on the higher ground of the West Midlands and Eaast Wales, approx north of Birmingham. The front to stall and move South later with extended snowfall across the heart of England for a while.

Hope this helps a little.

C

Edited December 28, 2009 by carinthian

[Costa Del Fal]

Met Office says drifiting is possible tomorrow. :o

Looking at earlier comments in here-everyone seems down when most other models imo still have it further south.

Edited December 28, 2009 by Blizzards

[berometer]

This is now my favorite website.

http://www.thisisnottingham.co.uk/news/Snow-predicted-week/article-1649441-detail/article.html

[I remember Atlantic 252]

bbc weather video updated at 9.25, snow does look south of me so uncertain yet 24 hours is FI in this setup, says mainly dry in the north

[A.J]

Morning, we used to deal with these kind of synoptics way back in the winters of the 60s and late 70s on a fairly regular basis and without the imput of high speed numericals every 3 hours. Based on what I see and from experience it is going to be a difficult to whether :

1. Its snow or rain ?

2. How far north the precipition going to extend.

A decision has to be made. Historically, these set ups rarely produce snowfalls from NORTH of the Wash to the Mersey. I would expect rain or sleet in the East Midlands and the main snowfall on the higher ground of the West Midlands and Eaast Wales, approx north of Birmingham. The front to stall and move South later with extended snowfall across the heart of England for a while.

Hope this helps a little.

C

Good post!

Met Office says drifiting is possible tomorrow. :o

I know, most confusing......updated at 0411z....which model run is that update based on?......GFS says rain, UKMO starting to fall in line with GFS, the others still disagreeing...talk about a pot-pourri of weather!!...Personally this close in, I'd go more for GFS, but again, thats just a personal opinion.....Its a pain in the backside though, as I've family staying here who are traveling back to devon tomorrow, and I'm supposed to be traveling down to devon on wednesday!

[Costa Del Fal]

I think many in here are worrying that because 1 or 2 models are not showing what we want then because of our luck it will probably be right. The Met Office/BBC seem ro be ignoring the UKMO Charts in their forecast and for a reason surely! If the GFS was right then the BBC would have more than egg on their faces-however i still think the GFS has not got this situation right.

This should cheer you up slightly! The GFS 06z seems to have a slight shift southwards than previous runs. Hopefully this may continue in further runs!

[A.J]

I think many in here are worrying that because 1 or 2 models are not showing what we want then because of our luck it will probably be right. The Met Office/BBC seem ro be ignoring the UKMO Charts in their forecast and for a reason surely! If the GFS was right then the BBC would have more than egg on their faces-however i still think the GFS has not got this situation right.

NMM shows snow for the main part early tomorrow morning the further west one is...again for short term forecasting, NMM is normally bang on....so based on all models and asumptions, then there will be ppn tomorrow, as to what type, rain? sleet? snow? the kitchen sink?...your guess is as good as mine.....my tip?....stick ones head out of the window & look upwards, and that'll tell one what the ppn type is!!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I think many in here are worrying that because 1 or 2 models are not showing what we want then because of our luck it will probably be right. The Met Office/BBC seem ro be ignoring the UKMO Charts in their forecast and for a reason surely! If the GFS was right then the BBC would have more than egg on their faces-however i still think the GFS has not got this situation right.

This should cheer you up slightly! The GFS 06z seems to have a slight shift southwards than previous runs. Hopefully this may continue in further runs!

yeah I thought that as well, but still has mild air SW winds for wednesday

[Supercell]

There's something not quite right about this at all. To still have such a key difference in positioning is ridiculous. I do the GFS will ever so slightly shift the low southwards, but I don't think it can do much more than that at this time frame. Just because of what has happened before in these situations I do now think the GFS is close in its solution. Not very good I know, but certainly not unheard of.

[Costa Del Fal]

yeah I thought that as well, but still has mild air SW winds for wednesday

Hopefully this slight southwards shift will continue on the next few runs. Changes wont be massive at this range in every run but gradual shifts are possible.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Hopefully this slight southwards shift will continue on the next few runs. Changes wont be massive at this range in every run but gradual shifts are possible.

this is well FI but the channel low for new years eve looks good