Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Still looking good for us West Midlanders, Met Office not backing down, this could be the big one!

not sure about that, bbc update has it south of here, a dry day tomorrow I think

[cyclonic happiness]

lol! it's like that old arguement "is it gonna snow in the western midlands or the west midlands, which is actually in the middle?"

We're in the twighlight zone here, I think they should re-name Salop as the west midlands, at least then we'd know.

[Rommy]

Tomorrow for here in Birmingham, I think 2-3" snowfalls wouldn't be too bad, any more than that and I'd count myself lucky. The snow shouldn't really affect this region until around mid-afternoon and last a few hours into early-mid evening. As is already known, the heaviest precip, and therefore the heaviest snowfall, will be towards the western side of the precip band, so basically where the Met Office have issued higher risk severe weather warnings (Eastern parts of Wales, Hereford and Shrophire) I would estimate snowfalls typically reaching 5-6" with high ground over Wales in particular perhaps reaching 8-10".

This event will be nothing special for here or really anything notable. Even if 4" of snow fell, that would be decent snowfall, nothing that hasn't been experienced before in this part of the country. That's my view on tomorrow anyway.

Further on in the week and the cold theme continues with a risk of further snow affecting the Midlands on Thursday and Friday.

i think same amount snowfall for coventry to as we are close to birmingham

[chapmanraven]

Just watched the BBC 12.20 weather report online, why did he only forecast up to 13.00hrs?

[Supercell]

A FRESH blast of icy weather will bring up to 12 INCHES more snow - and travel chaos - to parts of the UK tomorrow.

Wales will be worst hit by the blast, with a one foot of the white stuff expected on higher ground.

While up to four inches of snowfall in the Midlands and surrounding parts of central England is also expected.

The snow could not come at a worse time as millions of workers will take to the roads tomorrow as they head to the office for the first time since Christmas.

And many areas of the UK are still struggling to get back to normal after sleet and snow from before Christmas Day froze as temperatures plunged during an Arctic blast.

Forecaster Paul Knightley said a system moving in from the Atlantic this evening would meet colder air, forming snow.

Freeze

He said: "Across higher ground in central and south Wales, we can expect to see heavy snow - 20 to 30cm, or up to a foot, by Tuesday lunchtime, with strong winds pushing it higher in drifts.

"Tuesday is going to be a nasty day across much of Wales.

"We can also expect to see falls of 5 to 10cm (2-4 inches) in parts of the Midlands. We are not sure how far north or how far south this snow could fall.

"Southern counties may have some snow on Tuesday morning, but not enough to settle."

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"It's particularly badly timed because people will going back to work after the weekend break.

"There could be problems anywhere in Wales, or large parts of central and southern England, in the next 48 to 72 hours - people should check forecasts before going out."

Read more: http://www.thesun.co...l#ixzz0azB4mlFJ

You're much better off visiting the met office site. Although this article is surprisingly restrained, there is always room for papers like The Sun, Express etc. to conveniently misquote and turn a weather event in to an end-is-nigh apocalypse.

[andy_leics22]

This is bizzare. The models aren't in agreement at T36 lol, UKMO says the band will reach as far North as Mid Wales and just South of Birmingham and likely to be snow on the Northern edge and the GFS say that the band will be over all of the Midlands and will be rain.

Okkkk, well we will see which one is correct by this time tomorrow lol.

[i love snow]

i really duno what to make of this now.... one min rain then snow.....now im not even sure it will reach cannock!! any views??

[loopydreamer]

arghhhhh been reading your great posts and viewing models these last three days and i think the disagreements of the models are driving me crazy lol!

i think my husband thinks i've totally lost it!

still im in worcesterhire redditch so hopefully i'll see snow falling from the skies!

[Supercell]

Take your pick on any forecast. Rain / Snow / Or no ppn at all. Absolutely ridiculous. If it's not going to snow, i'd rather the ppn didn't make it at all. Send the low south and introduce the cold air quicker.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Take your pick on any forecast. Rain / Snow / Or no ppn at all. Absolutely ridiculous. If it's not going to snow, i'd rather the ppn didn't make it at all. Send the low south and introduce the cold air quicker.

stafford NW midlands no ppn at all

[azores92]

judging by ians forecast on the SW thread, and the MO, the forest of dean could be a nasty area to be travelling around tomorrow. somewhere on the herefs/gloucs border, like symonds yat, could get a lot of snow.

[loopydreamer]

omg i think im going crazy . spent the last three/four days on this forum viewing models and reading your great posts! at times i have forgot to eat lol! hubby thinks i've lost it!

hope i see some snow falling! we should be okay here shouldn't we?

[andy_leics22]

omg i think im going crazy . spent the last three/four days on this forum viewing models and reading your great posts! at times i have forgot to eat lol! hubby thinks i've lost it!

hope i see some snow falling! we should be okay here shouldn't we?

Haha Hmmm i'm not sure. I have never in my 5 years on here seen such disagreement in the models for a 24 hour timeframe. If the GFS and UKMO control run turn out to be correct then that would mean no snow even for Worcestershire unless you was over 350m. Apperantly though the UKMO other model they have says that Worcestershire will probably get some snow tomorrow.

I'm glad i'm not a professional forecaster right now lol.

[Supercell]

The post by Ian Fergusson was very informative and interesting as to the areas the met office are looking at. They really are going against the GFS. Herefordshire, Glucestershire and much of Wales the main risk. Some places on high ground in Wales receiving 50 cm of snow without taking the drifting in to consideration. Incredible stuff. This is really happening for some areas ! I hope you enjoy it you extremely lucky sods.

[matt_in_dudley]

I shall not be getting my hopes up this time! Purely because it's too marginal, it may just be rain! N rain is definately not exciting!

[millzzz]

I'm actually quite hopefull with this one. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that the system will stall over us for a few hours at some point as well. We just need a good frost to set in overnight and we should be set for the big one! Redditch should see a good inch or two I would think. Has anyone seen my ramp?

[Bolton67]

Well I'm just as confused as everyone else, BBC has Northampton down for heavy snow, so does the metO.

Looking at the models with high uppers JUST says rain Even my local weather station has not updated its page today.

Regards.

Confused in Northampton.

[andy_leics22]

My motto is... Expect the worst (rain) and then you can't lose

[Bolton67]

My motto is... Expect the worst (rain) and then you can't lose

I'm not expecting anything else but rain from tues and weds. temps and dew points will be well up.

By why are the pros saying different

[doublebarrel]

My motto is... Expect the worst (rain) and then you can't lose

exactly Andy, forget charts models etc, if its gonna snow it will !! but then again it might not, doesn`t matter what it says on charts models etc what comes down from the sky is right !! no two models are the same at the moment so how can anybody possibly know whats going to happen. have a guess !! ( and if you look at the charts they might give a clue ) !!

even the model output lot have fallen out with each other !! no posts for 40 mins !!

[Rommy]

so guessing no snow for coventry 2mrra?

[andy_leics22]

Yeah, if I was living in the east Midlands (Leicestershire, Northants) I'd be expecting rain too! No risk of snow there, so you have nothing to worry about.

Same risk as Birmingham though i'd say. I think the PPN will get much further North than the BBC currently show on the charts. I think it will get as far North as South Yorkshire but we shall see what happens tomorrow, that is my prediction and i'm sticking to it. Birmingham, Leicester, Northants WILL see some PPN tomorrow, whether it will be rain/sleet/snow I have no idea, probably a mix of all 3 though.

[Supercell]

Yeah, if I was living in the east Midlands (Leicestershire, Northants) I'd be expecting rain too! No risk of snow there, so you have nothing to worry about.

...and that's if the the ppn even reaches this sort of latitude. I think the exact northern extent of the snow / rain will, if anything, be further south by the time of the event.

[azores92]

Same risk as Birmingham though i'd say. I think the PPN will get much further North than the BBC currently show on the charts. I think it will get as far North as South Yorkshire but we shall see what happens tomorrow, that is my prediction and i'm sticking to it. Birmingham, Leicester, Northants WILL see some PPN tomorrow, whether it will be rain/sleet/snow I have no idea, probably a mix of all 3 though.

hmmm im not convinced andy, i would have thought, as it stands, excluding gfs birmingham is probably slightly better situated for this snowfall than leicester. elevation is a factor, and it is closer to the main risk zone generally.

[Rommy]

will ther be any snow 2mrra for coventry?>